Welcome to the final regular season weekend. With the conference tournaments starting next week, everyone begins their series on Thursday.

5/13 Recap

5-1 (+3.8u)

YTD: 438-376-7 (+48.48u)

Highlighted Matchups

Tennessee @ Arkansas

Auburn @ Ole Miss

Alabama @ Florida

North Carolina @ Florida State

Georgia Tech @ Duke

Wake Forest @ Louisville

Texas A&M @ Georgia

Kansas @ West Virginia

Southern Miss @ Troy

Kentucky @ Vanderbilt

Oregon @ Iowa

Texas @ Oklahoma

Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine

Virginia @ Virginia Tech

Kansas State @ Cincinnati

Arizona State @ Oklahoma State

Missouri State @ Murray State

Miami (OH) @ Ball State

Fairfield @ Rider

Fresno State @ New Mexico

Write Ups

Tennessee @ Arkansas

Similar to last few weekends, The Vols need to win this series. I believe their resume deserves a host with only taking one game here, but I highly doubt the committee gives them one without a series win or a good run in Hoover. Liam Doyle will be going game 2 in order to maintain his usual rest schedule. I would have went with Russell / Kuhns in game one but the Vols are rolling with their #2, Marcus Phillips. Phillips has had massive troubles with opponents stealing bases. It is a common theme for TN pitchers to struggle holding runners, and teams have exploited Phillips all season. The Vols rank near the bottom of D1 baseball in stolen bases allowed, which has been hard to watch. Tony Vitello is also 1-9 vs DVH and the Hogs since taking over the Tennessee program. Arkansas may have already locked up a top 8 national seed, however a win here will solidify the fact. Wehiwa Aloy is my vote for SEC POY and potentially the Golden Spikes award. The Shortstop has been fantastic for DVH and company. I know Tennessee has been struggling but this series should be good baseball. Both of these teams are near the top in advanced metrics this season. Winning at Baum Walker is tough, but I am just waiting for it to click again one weekend for this TN team.

Alabama @ Florida

Sully did it again. As one of the best coaches in the game, he does a great job at getting the absolute most out of his guys at this time of the season. Despite the injuries and early season struggles, Florida has earned their way back into the hosting conversation due to recent play. After starting 1-11, the Gators have won 12 of their last 15 SEC games. Hopefully we get a full Liam Peterson start this season after the weather has ruined like 2 of his last 3. Pierce Coppola is back and starting to increase his workload. The freshman Aiden King has been great as the #3. Alabama will hit the road after taking a huge series vs Georgia last weekend. Alabama needs one win here in Gainesville to reach 16 SEC wins, which would put them in good position to host. I feel like this Bama team has been overlooked by many since this Mississippi State series but the Tide have been playing solid all season. They had chances to win both series @ LSU and @ Vanderbilt, but came up short. The Gators have the advantage in game one with Liam Peterson matched up against Tyler Fay. Lean Florida to take 2/3, but a sweep could be huge for the Gators.

UNC @ Florida State

The Seminoles host the Tar Heels this weekend in a top 5 matchup. The ACC standings are in a log jam at the top, so this series will have postseason implications on the line. Florida State currently has a 0.5 game lead over NC State and Georgia Tech. UNC sits behind them 1 game back of the lead. Florida State wins the conference with a sweep but could be in trouble if they drop a game here due to NC State hosting Stanford. Jamie Arnold and Jake Knapp tonight will be another must watch pitching matchup this weekend. UNC’s pitching staff features one of the best 3 man rotations in the country. I do believe these are the ACC’s two best overall teams and can’t wait to see how this matchup shapes out this weekend. Lean FSU to take 2 of 3.

Oregon @ Iowa

Oregon, Iowa, and UCLA all have a chance of winning the Big Ten regular season championship. Iowa currently has a 1 game lead over UCLA and a 2 game lead over the Ducks. Iowa’s schedule has been easy, but they have done a good job of handling business all season. I believe Iowa’s at large chances come down to this weekend. 66th in RPI is just a huge stain in the eyes of the committee. A series win will jump their RPI into a more manageable spot and the committee will not reject the Big Ten regular season champion. I have no idea what the committee has for Oregon. The Ducks have proven to be an elite team at times, but have also skidded in a few games this season that hurt their NET and RPI. A series win here would only boost the hosting resume for the Ducks. Oregon’s Grayson Grinsell and Iowa’s Cade Obermueller will both take the mound tonight. They have arguably been the conference’s best two arms this season. Whomever wins this “battle of the aces” matchup tonight will be sitting in a great position to take the series.

Auburn @ Ole Miss

Auburn currently looks like an Omaha team. The Tigers have had one of the toughest schedules in the country and just keep winning. With the #2 RPI, I believe they have locked a top 8 national seed already. The pitching staff, led by ace Sam Durton, has been great all season and the lineup has been smashing the baseball as of late. It was against SC and Jax St, but the Tigers have scored 65 runs in their last 4 games. Ole Miss dropped the last two games to Miss State last weekend, but I still believe this OM team will be playing in a Super. 18th in RPI, the Rebels are not out of the hosting picture just yet. In fact, winning 2 out of 3 this weekend would put them at 16-14 in SEC play. I lean Ole Miss here in game one as Hunter Elliot will be going for the Rebs while I believe Sam Dutton will go game 2 for Auburn.

Southern Miss @ Troy

The Sun Belt looks like it will be a 3 big league this season with Coastal, USM, and Troy with the conference seeds being in that order. This series could carry some weight this weekend. Southern Miss is 30th in RPI and Troy is 40th and the winning this series could be the difference between a 2 and 3 seed come next weekend. Troy has been ranked in the top 25 nearly the entire season, but I have yet to be impressed with the Trojans. Troy has taken 2 of 3 in every Sun Belt series so far this season but there were multiple opponents they should have easily swept. Their pitching staff is usually good to implode for at least one game a series though. Southern Miss has won 4 of their 5 series on the road this season. Ace JB Middleton has been soaring up the draft boards all season, and will get the ball in game one tonight. The Eagles are known for their pitching, but have also been swinging the bats well as of late. Having an arm like Middleton in game one offers a big advantage over what Troy has on their pitching staff. I lean USM on the road this weekend with the pitching advantage, but this is a great opportunity for Troy this weekend.

5/15 Bets

Ole Miss -115^ ✅

Maryland -130^ ❌

Southern Miss -145^ ✅

Duke -115^ ❌

Texas Tech +100^ ❌

Cincinnati -115* ✅

Virginia -115^ ✅

Texas / Oklahoma u11.5 -115* ✅

Nebraska +110* ✅

Arizona State / Oklahoma State u13.5 -120* ✅

1.25u: Creighton + SELA +125* ❌

Clemson + NC State +105^ ✅

UCF + Florida +127* ❌

UC Irvine + Vanderbilt +107* ❌

Texas A&M +180* ❌

TCU + Miss St -113* ✅

LSU / SC o11.5 -115^ ❌

Charlotte -115^ ✅

^ = DK

* = B365

10-8 (+1.3u)