Week 1 College Football

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Thursday – August 28th

South Florida +7 -115 ✅

We have a good opening week 1 matchup with Boise traveling to South Florida for a 5:30 ET kickoff. The line opened Boise -9.5 before moving down -6.5 late July / early August. I missed the best number, but snagged the key number before it disappeared. Boise enters the season as the current favorite to represent the G5 in the CFB playoff.

Boise State’s offense averaged a whopping 37.3 PPG last season, but of course, will be replacing Jeanty. However, they do return 7 starters on offense which include QB Maddux Madsen as well as 4 offensive lineman. Jeanty was the centerpiece of last year’s offense. It may take a few games for Madsen to find his groove without opposing defenses keying in on Jeanty.

South Florida is dynamic. HC Alex Golesh operates the offense with one of the fastest tempos in the country. Dynamic QB Byrum Brown returns healthy after a banged up 2024. If Brown returns to his 2023 play, this offense should be able to place points on the scoreboard. Golesh has said in interviews that Brown has looked his best version through camp. The Bulls offense ranked 36th in scoring last season & spent some money in the portal replacing RB and WR1.The defense has its questions but they do return their top 3 leading tacklers from last season.

Boise is a good team, but we have much to learn. 5:30 ET kickoff in South Florida seems like a tough spot week 1 for the Jeanty-less Broncos. I have the +7 but would not lay the current +5.5. I would instead pivot to a 0.5u on the ML.

Buffalo +17.5 ✅

Too large of a spread here in my opinion. Minnesota should be able to run the football, but they will be breaking in a new QB here. Minnesota’s offenses have struggled in the opener the last two seasons. Buffalo has a talented team as they were selected to finish 4th in the MAC. They will compete in the trenches as they return a ton of production. Their skill group, led by RB Al-Jay Henderson, has the ability to make plays in open space. Does Buffalo win outright? No, but with a 3 score spread, a talented MAC roster, and a low total of 43.5, I will side with the underdog.

Akron / Wyoming o47.5 -110 ❌

Yuck, who doesn’t love having an Akron / Wyoming play on the card week one of the season. The total has fallen into my range of play. Most people will just glance at the paper and see where these teams ranked offensively last year and just hit the under. However, both teams are returning offensive production while replacing a ton on defense. Wyoming will return 9 starters on offense including their QB. Akron will return their QB Ben Finley and rank top 50 in tempo. Yes, these offenses had bad numbers. I understand your reasoning if you completely avoid this game. However, these defenses have the potential to be very bad this season. Week 1 should offer plenty of big play opportunity for each side. I would agree with the spread movement with Akron at home, but zero percent chance I even sprinkle that.

Nebraska / Cincinnati o51.5 -110 ❌

This total has been trending up and down for the majority of the month. It opened in the summer at 50.5. It reached its highest point earlier this week at 53.5 before dropping to its current 51.5. Nothing huge. I like all numbers as I believe we could be in store for a 31-28 type final. This will be played at ArrowHead Stadium in Kansas City.

QB Dylan Raiola returns for his Sophomore season with weapons available on offense. Raiola’s efficiency and presence should make large leaps this season. Nebraska’s goal will be to run the football. Bell cow RB Emmett Johnson will return. The Huskers rushing attack finished 5th in the Big Ten in total rushing yards after Holgorsen took over as OC. Cincinnati’s defense ranked 88th in rushing yards per game last season. This could be a vulnerability Nebraska hopes to exploit early.

Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby looks to improve after a strong campaign last season. Sorsby is a threat with his legs as he ran for 450 yards with 9 TDs last season, which opens up another dimension of offense. I am confident Rhule will have this Cornhusker defense to standard; however, they are young which could lead to a slow start week 1.

With two experienced QBs under center and defensive questions on both sides, I like the over to hit in Arrowhead. Both offensive units should show improvement this season. The pace could slow down at times, but both teams should be able to execute drives with a few big plays in between.

FD is offering a 50% boost for this game. I would play the total at 47.5. With the boost it should be around -115. 48 is a key number.

Recap

2-2 Thursday night. Did every game go under?

Friday – August 29th

Charlotte +7 -110

This line has been interesting. After opening App -9.5, it has fallen all the way down to App -5.5. I believe I agree with the line movement.

Charlotte will be in year one of new HC Tim Albin. Albin has had success as he led Ohio to their best season in school history in 2024. He will have his work cut out for him. However, I believe App’s defense will struggle this season. If they can pass the ball with any success, they should be able to break a few against this App secondary.

Last season was App’s first losing season since moving to the FBS level in 2014. Dowell Loggains takes over the HC duties. App replaced a ton with the transfer portal. Their offense should be able to move the ball against a new Charlotte defense.

I like targeting Charlotte here. Similar to USF, if the +7 is gone, I would just lay a 0.5u down on the ML. Both teams have unanswered questions. I believe Albin is a good coach. This is the perfect opportunity to make an early season splash in week one at a new program.

Colorado +4.5 -105

The majority of the cards I have seen have Georgia Tech as a play. I get it, but the number really hasn’t budged. Obviously Colorado is replacing their main pieces from last year, but Deion may have a more complete team this year. Starting transfer QB Kaidon Salter is talented and should keep the engines turning. After targeting the portal hard, the defense should be in line for an improvement. The Buffs were a good target at home last season, managing a 5-1 ATS record. GT’s QB, Haynes King, is one of the best in the ACC. Jamal Haynes also returns as one of the top backs for the 2026 draft. The rushing attack should be lethal again. They did lose Singleton to Auburn, but should have a decent skill group surrounding King. Tech’s defense struggled at times last season (76th in PPG) and will be tested on the road week one.

UNLV -9.5 -108

The ultimate buy low opportunity. UNLV’s performance last week was terrible as they barely squeaked out a win against FCS Idaho State. The defense was decimated. We have seen the books reflect with the spread falling from UNLV -13.5 to UNLV -9.5. I am still a believer in the Rebels as I believe they pose a true threat to Boise in the MWC. Mullen is a good coach. I am not sure if you can fix all of those defensive problems in one week, but I will bet that he has an improved unit for this second game. Sam Houston isn’t really good. Western Kentucky’s offense moved the ball at will. The BearKats really struggled to tackle. Sam Houston’s offense scored points, but their defense never allowed the opportunity. They will likely find themselves in a similar situation this weekend. UNLV’s offense will likely score at will. Can Sam Houston’s keep up? This game likely sails the total, but I’ll buy low with Mullen’s Rebels here as I believe they have a much better roster than what they showcased in week zero. Also, Sam Houston is playing their home games an hour away from campus in Houston due to stadium renovations.

Saturday – August 30th

FAU +14.5 -110

I didn’t get the best number here, but I still like it before it crosses the key number. Maryland has a lot of questions that need answered and it may take some time to figure things out. The Terps have won their past 13 non-conference openers, many coming in blowout fashion.

FAU will introduce HC Zach Kittley. Kittley will bring an air raid offense to FAU as his first stop as a HC. He has previously been the OC at Texas Tech & WKU, two schools notorious for the air raid. He will have an entire new roster to work with. His QB play should be solid as Caden Veltkamp transferred in from WKU.

A lot of questions on both sides of this game but Kittley’s air raid scheme seems like a nightmare matchup week 1 for a new roster. Points should be scored. Maryland 38-27.

Northwestern +6 -110

Bad QB play has plagued Northwestern the last few years. Enter Preston Stone, transfer from SMU. Stone had a great 2023 before losing his job last year to stand out QB Kelvin Jennings. NW brought in OC Zach Lujan from the FCS powerhouse South Dakota State. Northwestern usually has a solid defense, so any offensive production will offer improvement.

Tulane may piece it together, but they are suffering from significant roster turnover, especially on offense. The Green Wave lost last year’s starting QB, RB top 3 WRs, RT, RG, and C. Tulane reloaded in the portal, but questions will need to be answered. BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff has won the QB job. The defense should be a solid unit. They will need to step up as they break in a new offense. Tulane may pull away at the end with HFA, but the Wildcats are live. 23-20 final.

Ball State +17.5 -108

I had this highlighted, but decided to lock it after watching the other MAC schools play Big10 teams last night. Purdue is in year one with Barry Odom. They may be improved from last season, but will have learning pains. 3 score favorite is too many points.

Texas +10.5 / o39.5 (FD 50% boost) +104

Lean o47.5 and Texas.

Kentucky / Toledo u48.5 -110

Toledo seems to be a popular upset pick as the spread has went from +12.5 all the way to +7.5 before some Kentucky buyback to the current +9.5. Toledo is a dangerous G5 opponent as they are projected to win the MAC by multiple sources. They are led by veteran QB Tucker Gleason, who tossed for 24 TDs last season. Toledo’s defense is a strong point. They will return multiple All-Conference players from last season. They can provide the pressure necessary to make the new UK QB uncomfortable. Kentucky’s offense will be led by 7th year QB transfer, Zach Calzada. The Wildcats ranked 119th in points per game last season, but return the skill guys to make improvement. We know what Stoops will have with Kentucky’s defense. With it being week 1, I like the defenses to showcase their strength. I see this final being somewhere around 24-10 Kentucky.

Marshall / Georgia u55.5 -110

I do not see Marshall scoring double digits here. Georgia can keep the foot on the gas if they wish, but Kirby is 0-13 ATS as a favorite of 38+ points. Georgia should assert dominance here in the first half then focus on building depth with the back ups in the second half. The key for Georgia is to head into Knoxville week 3 with a full slate of health.

Alabama -13.5 -110

I tend to avoid road favorites week one, but I could not ignore this one. I will eat some chalk. I like this Alabama roster. I am bought in to DeBoer year 2. They have one of the strongest units in the country. There were times last season Milroe held the offense back. Will Simpson have some learning experiences? Likely, however he runs a 4.3 and reports say he is a good passer. I believe OC Ryan Grubb’s return will be huge for this entire offense, especially Ryan Williams. This unit should upgrade from last years. Bama’s defense will be a problem for any offense. The top 10 scoring unit will return a number of key players.

Mike Norvell and Florida State will look to rebound after an unfortunate last season. The past is behind us and the transfer portal allows the opportunity for teams to make quick turnarounds after poor seasons. New OC Gus Malzahn will likely have immediate impact. QB Thomas Castellanos is dynamic and should offer an upgrade compared to the play under center last season. FSU defense should also be an improved unit.

Alabama is the square play, but I can’t ignore. They are 9-1 ATS opening week the last 10 seasons. FSU will likely be improved from last season, but this is game one with a new OC. The Seminoles faced more personnel turnover. I’ll eat the chalk.

Coastal Carolina / Virginia u58.5 -110

Coastal Carolina is in a state of transition on offense. They will be operating with multiple QBs. It will be the first game with a new OC and they also need to replace last year’s o-line. Drew Hollingshead was brought in as the OC. He was a former Mike Leach assistant and offers Coastal a “high powered, high scoring” offense. It may be the case, however I expect some growing pains in week one on the road against an ACC opponent.

Virginia established a defensive identity last season as the under has hit in their last 6 home games. HC Tony Elliot returns a strong linebacker core while beefing up the front and secondary through the portal. With Coastal bringing a new offensive scheme, I believe Virginia will need their defense to carry the torch. Virginia’s offense ranked 105th last season in points per game and 109th in total offense.

I tend to like unders more than overs for week 1 as teams are trying to figure out their identity. Coastal’s new scheme could provide points, but I am expecting a few mistakes as they will also be rotating QBs. Hopefully we do not get burned on turnovers.

UTSA +24.5 -110

I completely understand the preseason Texas A&M love, but I thought this number was a little disrespectful to UTSA. Owen McCown returns under center to lead an offense with plenty of firepower. A&M’s secondary can be exploited, as they ranked 13th in the SEC in passing yards allowed per game. The Roadrunners started last season slow before turning it up to finish strong. Penalties killed them last year as they ranked near the bottom of the entire country. Jeff Taylor is a good coach and has expressed how reducing the penalty yardage was priority number one.

Texas A&M’s has potential on both sides of the ball. I can see why expectations are high in College Station. They will be successful running the football. However, if Marcel Reed develops as a passer, this offense can become very dangerous. Reed is a great runner but struggled severely last season when faced with pressure. He held onto the ball way too long. Taylor knows this and UTSA will try to apply as much pressure as possible.

A&M should have little problems winning this game; however UTSA has the high powered offense to keep this game closer on the scoreboard than what it really is. The back door is always open.

LSU +4.5 -110

I believe FanDuel and DraftKings are both offering a boost for this game.

Yeah yeah, Brian Kelly week one. I know. This will be a fun matchup. Two elite QBs against two elite defensive fronts.

LSU’s QB, Garrett Nussmeier and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik will begin the season tied for 2nd in Heisman Trophy odds according to DraftKings.

Clemson’s defensive front can cause problems for anyone. Fortunately, LSU is known for their strong offensive line production. This will be an interesting battle as it likely dictates the game. If Clemson can shut down the run and provide pressure on Nuss, it could be a long night for the purple and gold. Nuss will make mistakes when pressured. If LSU gives him time and establishes a run game, I like their chances.

After ending last season on fire, Klubnik has potential to be the first QB selected in the 2026 draft. He will have a stacked position group at his disposal. I expect LSU’s defense to be much improved, especially in the trenches.

This will be a good one. Cant wait to watch. If you have an odds boost, I would use it. You can get LSU +7.5 or boost the ML to a better price.

Washington -19.5 -110

Jedd Fisch heads into year two at Washington looking to build off a solid year one. The Huskies will replace QB with Demond Williams, who carries high expectations from fans and analysts. The Huskies will need to improve from last year’s o-line production. Jonah Coleman is a veteran back that can operate when given the opportunity. Washington only managed 23.4 PPG in their first Big Ten experience. I expect that number to take a significant leap this season.

Colorado State returns a decent amount of production, including QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. Both RBs also return to an offense that averaged 24.4 PPG last season. The defense will face some problems against Washington’s offense. They will be replacing a large number of starters.

With a new OC, I believe Washington will look to prove this offense is more high-powered than last season. 38-14 Huskies.

Sunday – August 31st

SC / Va Tech u51.5 -110

Miami / ND u51.5 -115

Monday – Sept 1st

TCU / UNC u58.5 -115

Will be updated with Write Up soon

My Week 1 Card

TH:: South Florida +7 ✅

TH: Buffalo +17.5 ✅

TH: Akron / Wyoming o47.5 ❌

TH: Cincinnati / Nebraska o51.5 ❌

FR: Charlotte +7 ❌

FR: Colorado +4.5 ❌

FR: UNLV -9.5 ✅

Northwestern +6 ❌

Ball State +17.5 ❌

FAU +14.5 ❌

Texas +10.5 / o39.5 ❌

Toledo / Kentucky u48.5 ✅

Marshall / Georgia u55.5 ✅

Alabama -13.5 ❌

Coastal Carolina / Virginia u58.5 ✅

UTSA +24.5 ✅

LSU +4.5 ✅

Utah -5.5 ✅

Washington -19.5 ❌

SUN: SC / VT u51.5 ✅

SUN: ND / Miami u51.5 ✅

MON: TCU / UNC u58.5 ❌

I will also be posting Don’s card. Don is a good friend of mine that I talk over picks with. He has a high level of experience and knowledge. He specializes in football and a good guy to reach out to if you have any questions. You can find him on X @ GentsClubSports.

His week 1 card is:

All bets to win 1u unless noted otherwise

Buff/Minn o43.5 -110

Neb/Cincy o51.5 -110

Baylor ML +110

GT/Colo o51.5 -110

UNLV -9.5 -110

S Miss +14 -125

Ball St +18.5 -110

Toledo +10.5

S Dakota +15.5

LSU +4.5

Utah -6 -115 4u POTW

TCU/UNC u58.5 -110