Welcome to Week 3! We are back after a 14-7 (+7.21u) week 2 to put us at 28-19 (+8.16u) on the season.

Scroll to the bottom for my write ups on Georgia Tech vs Clemson and Tennessee vs Georgia.

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Thursday – August 11th

Wake Forest +7.5 -115

• Short week on the road for NC State after squeaking out a close win against UVA on Saturday. CJ Bailey looks electric. With it being the lone Thursday game and new HC Dickert’s first conference game, Wake will have the crowd advantage. QB Robby Ashford can make plays with his legs to sustain drives. Wake keeps this close. 31-27.

Friday – August 12th

No play yet, but I will likely have something. I am waiting to see where the New Mexico / UCLA line settles as well as the Houston / Colorado total. Refresh Friday afternoon.

Saturday – August 13th

Buffalo / Kent State u48.5 -110

• Who doesn’t love kicking off their Saturday bets with a little Kent State vs Buffalo noon action? Lol. Buffalo should dominate this game here while keeping it low scoring. I expect a slow pace with limited explosive plays. Kent’s offense has struggled. They had a kickoff return save them against Merrimack and garbage time against Texas Tech. I’m hoping this stays low scoring as Buffalo goes for the conference game shut out. 31-10 final.

Memphis -3.5 -110

• Buying back Memphis as I believe this Troy steam has gotten out of hand. Troy played Clemson close last week and this is a classic look ahead spot with Memphis hosting Arkansas next weekend. However, I am not yet sold on Troy. A pick 6 helped them keep the game close last week. They scored 4 4th quarter TDs against Nicholls State week 1 to a 38-20 win. The Memphis offensive efficiency has been elite. They should be able to put up enough points to escape a tricky spot with a win. 31-20 Memphis.

Alabama -20.5 -110

Added to 2u after steam

• Wisconsin’s starting QB confirmed out. Badgers really struggled in that 1H against a bad MTSU team. This is a tough spot for them. This is a huge prove opportunity for Alabama. A blowout here will build motivation heading into their bye week prepping for the upcoming Georgia matchup. Wisconsin does not have the type of QB threat that Bama has struggled with under DeBoer. Alabama’s offense responded well last week against UL Monroe. Simpson was perfect going 17-17. Germie Bernard has performed as one of the best WRs in the country. Bama’s offense will also be getting Ryan Williams back this week. The Tide easily won last season 42-10 in Madison. I expect this Wisconsin offense to severely struggle. Alabama sends a message, 45-3.

North Texas -4 -110

• Snagged this on Sunday, but still like any number under 7. North Texas has always had the offensive firepower, but I believe this UNT defense is a little better than year’s past. They survived a scare from WMU last week on the road, escaping with a 33-30 OT win. This will be a good opportunity to steer the ship back on track on their home field. QB Drew Mestemaker won the starting QB battle and has really shown to make plays with both his legs and arm. As we predicted, Wazzu had a much better performance against San Diego State last week. However I am not sold and this will be their first road game of the season. North Texas 35-24.

Miami -16.5 -115

• I was on USF against Boise then cashed out before kick last week against Florida. Golesh has the Bulls rolling and they are likely in the driver’s seat among G5 CFB playoff teams. However, this is a tough spot. A quick turnaround @ Miami after just winning in the Swamp. Byrum Brown can make the plays needed, but I expect the defense to take a step back to regression. Miami will look to send a message to Florida. 38-17 final.

MTSU / Nevada o46.5 -110

• Two bad teams. Low number for two bad defenses. We should be in for a few explosive plays. MTSU surprisingly played an improved week 2 performance against a stout Wisconsin defense. It was 14-10 at the half before ending 42-10. I disagree with the line movement and expect Middle to have a solid showing here but no way am I touching their spread. 27-24 Nevada.

Bowling Green +7 -115

• This line moved towards Liberty on open, but I am going back to the well with BGSU after their cover against Cincy last weekend. I am not sold on Liberty. They lost straight up as a TD favorite to Jax State last weekend to move to 0-2 ATS. They really struggled tackling against JSU. Bowling Green’s advanced statistics and home field advantage give them the edge for me in this matchup. BGSU upsets 27-17.

FAU +3.5 -115

• FAU has won this game the L7 years. After throwing 6 interceptions week 1 against Maryland, the offense responded well in a blowout win against Florida A&M. If the turnovers stay down, I believe FAU’s air raid offense can overpower FIU in this game. Caden Veltkamp bounced back throwing for 300+ yards and 5 TDs, but FIU’s defense will be a step up from FAMU. We have not received a good read on FIU as they have played Bethune Cookman and Penn State in their first two games, but I like FAU’s dominance of this rivalry to continue.

Mississippi State -38.5 -110

• The Cowbells should continue to ring. Lebby will want to carry over all possible momentum. State hasn’t had the opportunity to run the score up on an opponent in a while. Alcorn State lost week 1 to Northwestern State, who lost to Minnesota 66-0 last weekend. It was 59-0 at halftime. State’s 3rd string will be able to move the ball. Bulldogs 55-0.

Western Michigan +28.5 -110

• Nasty bet. Off a big road win and Indiana on schedule for next week, I doubt Illinois will have the desire to run this score through the ceiling. WMU played well against a solid North Texas team last weekend. They will play at a slow pace and have the defense to keep this within the number. Illinois 35-13

Southern Miss +2.5 -110

• I like this spot. App State had troubles last week with Lindenwood. They escaped with a 20-13 win in a game they were favored by -31.5 points. I faded App week one against Charlotte and they burned me, but I think USM is better than Charlotte. USM played a strong first half against an underrated Mississippi State team before fading away in the second half. Lean over as both offenses could put up points. I think USM picks up a big conference win at home. USM 34-31. Update: Line moved to 3. I may buy more USM if +3.5 hits a reasonable price.

Arkansas +10 -115

0.25u: Arkansas ML +225

• We are 2-0 on upsets of the week this year. This will be my first time taking a dog on the road, but I like the Hogs. This number has been climbing all week. I am expecting some Ole Miss buy back at some point. Arkansas may get beat in the trenches here, but I believe their playmakers can keep this within one score on the road. Taylen Green is hard to stop if he takes care of the football. Points will be scored as these offenses rank top of the SEC in explosive plays. In their first two games, Ole Miss has allowed 181.5 rushing yards per game against two pretty bad offenses. Austin Simmons has the 2nd worst completion % in the SEC when not faced with pressure. He has thrown 4 INTs in two game and I am not even sure if he plays on Saturday. He is listed as probable but I doubt we find out until right before kickoff. If he sits, Ole Miss will shift to a run-heavy approach making me like Arkansas even more as well as the under. However, Ole Miss is back at home and Kiffin will look to cover after the ending of last week’s game. Arkansas will need to game plan, but Ole Miss has showcased a few problems they can exploit. A road upset would be huge for Sam Pittman. Woo Pig 34-31.

Florida / LSU u52.5 -110

• Snagged this number early. I would lay off at 48.5. Check to see if you have any odds boosts available. I do expect both offenses to improve for this matchup, but these two defenses are elite. Florida will look for vengeance after the USF loss. I am not writing off the Gators off one bad loss to a mid major (ND last year). Their pass rush is really good and could create problems in this game. Nussmeier was pressured a few times in the Clemson game. LSU’s offense has yet to score 3 TDs in a single game. They never managed to open the flood gates last week against La Tech. However, Lagway and Nussmeier both have the potential and weapons to turn this into a shoot out, which is why I would avoid the 48.5 number. Death Valley at Night. Florida shows fight, but doesn’t have enough. Would lean Florida on the spread, but LSU escapes 27-20.

Kentucky -23.5 -110

• Eastern Michigan has looked bad in their first two games. They are 0-2 ATS with a blowout loss to Texas State and an outright loss to Long Island as -22.5 point favorites. Kentucky will be starting backup QB Cutter Boley, but it shouldn’t matter. Zach Calzada is not a big difference under center. UK should be able to run the ball to 40+ points here. EMU allowed 392 rushing yards to Texas State and 231 to LIU. Kentucky will want to find some kind of offensive groove before heading to South Carolina next weekend. UK 42-10.

East Carolina -5.5 -110

• This was one of the first wagers I placed for week 3. Coastal is 0-2 ATS and has not sniffed a cover. The market may be undervaluing how bad they have looked. After a terrible week one showing, Coastal responded with a 13-0 win against Charleston Southern in a game they were -28.5 favorites. The offense is learning a new system. They will likely improve but it has been down bad and I do not expect much to change for this matchup. East Carolina is 2-0 ATS. They responded well after a good showing against NC State week 1. This number has crossed 7, but I like ECU to roll. I would still play the -7.5. ECU 38-17.

Iowa -34.5 -110

• It’s a gross bet, but Iowa will dominate here. UMass is the worst team in the FBS. On top of that, their QB and 2 best WRs are now banged up. Even if they do suit up, I doubt it changes much. Iowa needs a prove it showing before beginning conference play. The offense has not live up to the preseason expectations. This is the perfect opportunity to build confidence in Gronowski. I doubt UMass scores and Iowa will be able to run the ball to 40+ points here. Iowa 49-0.

Vanderbilt / South Carolina o47.5 -105

• This game likely operates at a slow pace, but it will feature 2 QBs that are capable of sustaining drives with their legs. I wanted to buy into Vandy here bad, but settled with the over. South Carolina’s special teams unit has been the best in the country. Vandy would be smart to punt it out of bounds as SC bas already returned 3 to the house. I see Vandy carrying over their strong 2H play from Virginia Tech before Sellers leads a late comeback to escape with a narrow 27-24 win.

Utah / Wyoming u48.5 -110

• Two top ranked defenses will square off this weekend in Laramie, Wyoming. As usual, The forecast contains some heavy winds. Utah should handle business in this game. QB Devin Dampier should not need to use his legs much after the 1st quarter. Utah needs him healthy as they begin Big 12 play next weekend with a huge matchup against Texas Tech. Wyoming’s offense will struggle to score here. I will be surprised if they reach double digits. Utah coasts 31-7.

Duke +3 -115

• Darian Mensah returns. The market moved in my favor here as this game is down to a pick em at some places. I was on Duke against Illinois and they burned me. The Blue Devils shot themselves in the foot multiple times with turnovers, dropped passes, and penalties. The game would have been much closer if Duke could have kept the mistake margin closer. Tulane escaped against South Alabama 33-31 after allowing a late 4th quarter comeback. USA failed the 2 point conversion attempt to tie the game with under a minute left. Tulane is much better at home, as they already have a power 4 win under their belt this season. Northwestern managed 4 INTs and 2 fumbles while going 0-2 on 4th down. I am not yet sold on Tulane being a playoff team as they faced some roster turnover from last season, but they will likely shape up to be a contender. I believe Manny Diaz cleans up the mistakes. I am a Mensah believer. The atmosphere will be rocking, but he is comfortable in Yulman. It should only fuel the fire. Duke bounces back with a big road win, 27-20.

Utah State +4.5 -105

• I was not in a rush to place this bet, but the USU showed life while scoring 22 points and covering the spread last week against Texas A&M. The Aggies have a solid defensive line which will help in Mountain West play. Air Force has only played one game and it was week 1 at home against Bucknell. We do not know much about them. However, they will be rolling out 2 QBs on the road conference game as they are still trying to determine a starter. They will have some extra preparation, but Utah State is 2-0 ATS and has much more experience on the season. I like them to win outright at home, 33-27.

Minnesota ML -120

• Minnesota dog walked Northwestern State last week. I believe I saw a live spread at -82.5, which is insane. The Goohers defense held them to only 42 total offensive yards. They also beat a solid Buffalo team in week one. California’s freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has captured the public’s eye. He is talented, but Minnesota’s defense will be a big step up in competition compared to Oregon State & Texas Southern. Minny wins 20-14. Minnesota RB Darius Taylor is questionable. He only received 4 carries in week 2.

FULL CARD

Wake Forest +7.5

Memphis -3.5

Alabama -20.5 (2u)

North Texas -4

Miami -16.5

MTSU / Nevada o46.5

Bowling Green +7

FAU +3.5

Miss State -38.5

Western Michigan +28.5

Southern Miss +2.5

Arkansas +10

Florida / LSU u52.5

Texas A&M +10.5

Kentucky -23.5

East Carolina -5.5

Iowa -34.5

Vanderbilt / South Carolina o47.5

Duke +3

Utah State +4.5

Minnesota ML

Boosted Plays

Texas A&M +10.5 -106

• It is a tough spot, but I believe the Aggies can keep it within single digits. Texas A&M is an unimpressive 3-12 ATS under Mike Elko but this year’s team has shown that the preseason hype may be real. Marcel Reed has had his best two showings as a passer. That could be dangerous and he is already a huge rushing threat. Notre Dame did not face him last season as he did not have the starting job yet. If A&M upsets, Reed may will Heisman contention so it may be worth investing in a ticket. Notre Dame lost in week one, but almost came from behind to steal that game on the road. They did have a bye last week, which allowed more preparation for this game. Marcus Freeman bounces back well and has a great record against the spread in home games. The Irish failed to run the ball successfully against a stout Miami front. A&M’s run defense has a few questions, Jeremiah Love has to get going in this game. Tough two first opponents for freshman CJ Carr. ND will want to reduce the number of drop backs. We should be in for a good game. Notre Dame 31-27.

5 Favorite Bets (no order)

• Buffalo / Kent St u48.5
• USM +2.5
• ECU -5.5
• Iowa -34.5
• Minnesota ML

Write Ups

Clemson vs Georgia Tech

• I stayed away here. I could have hopped on Georgia Tech at a good number, but couldn’t pull the trigger. I believe Clemson is better than their first two showings. This is a huge “prove it” opportunity for them. If they win, everyone will begin to forget the home loss to LSU and struggle vs Troy. Clemson’s defensive line is supposed to be one of the best in the country. They will need a much better showing here than against Troy. Dabo and Klubnik need this win. Brent Key and Haynes King always show up in these type of big games. King did not play last week, but Tech insists it was precautionary and that he is healthy for this game. Georgia Tech’s rushing attack plays right into Clemson’s supposed strengths. If you believe Clemson has shown their true product, then you’ll take Georgia Tech spread & ML. If you believe Clemson had a sleep start last week, you’ll happily take them at -3.5. I am not sure. My numbers like Georgia Tech, but I’m not sold on Clemson wing fraudulent just yet. Clemson 31-24.

Georgia vs Tennessee

• As a Vol fan, I am fired up for this game. Kirby has dominated Tennessee, but this is the best matchup the Vols have had on paper. Tennessee offense has returned to standard with Joey Aguilar at QB. However, I do believe their defense took a step back from last year’s. It does not help that the Vols will be without their 2 top CBs. In TN’s favor, I am not sure Gunnar Stockton and UGA’s offense is the one to exploit their weaknesses. Stockton dropped back 34 times against APSU and UGA still only managed 28 points. They lack explosive plays. Now… Kirby may have been sandbagging these first two games against weak opponents. Given his history, he has dominated the first major opponent on Georgia’s schedule each season. I am sure he spent a lot of time this offseason with his eyes already on week 3. Georgia’s defense is fast. It’s elite. It will be a huge step up in competition for Aguilar. He has looked great in this system, but how will it go when his receivers are getting less separation and he is actually forced to process reads? Neyland will be rocking as always. Gameday will be in attendance. Huepel is 26-4 at home. Tennessee has a huge opportunity to send a message to the rest of the SEC. My numbers and heart say TN, but I will need to see it to believe it. I see it playing out as Georgia’s defense gives Aguilar problems while Georgia’s offense doesn’t exploit Tennessee’s defensive weaknesses. I do not mind the under. This likely will come down to who finds more success rushing the football. Georgia 23-20.

Don’s Card

NC State -7

Colorado / Houston o43.5 -110

Kansas State ML +100

Clemson -3 -110

Alabama -21 -110

Temple +24.5 -125

Memphis -3.5 -110

Georgia -3.5 -105

Oregon State +24.5 -114

Western Michigan +28.5 -110

App St / S Miss o52.5 -110

Virginia Tech -5.5 -115

New Mexico St +10.5 -110

Vandy / South Carolina o47 -110

Utah State +4.5 -110

Notre Dame + LSU ML -112 (4u POTW)