Welcome, everyone. I hope you had a good week now let’s dig into the upcoming CFB slate. This is presumed to be the best slate of the season. Of course the 7:30 window catches all of the attention, but there are some really good matchups throughout the entire weekend. Let’s go.

For Alabama vs Georgia & Oregon vs Penn State write ups, scroll to the bottom. Hit subscribe to receive this email as soon as it is published. No charges.

Last week’s recap: https://wrrundown.wordpress.com/2025/09/22/college-football-week-4-recap-notes/

Thank you again for reading. If you have any questions or concerns, shoot me an email or message on X: WR_Bets. As always, check back daily for any updated plays.

Thursday – September 25th

East Carolina ML -130 ✅

• Honestly I know it’s a lot, but I would lay the current spread up to 7 or pair up the Moneyline with a confident favorite of your choice, as I believe ECU bounces back on the short week. The Pirates came up short Saturday at home against a good BYU team. An untimely pick 6 right before half really put them in a bad spot. ECU’s offensive EPA/Pass ranks 37th, as QB Katin Houser has averaged 314.5 passing yards per game thus far. Army’s defense ranks 99th in EPA/Pass and does not have a good success rate against the pass or rush. East Carolina’s defense ranks 18th in EPA/rush, which could be a huge factor against Army’s offensive rushing attack.

Friday – September 26th

Florida State / Virginia o57.5 -110 ✅

• Play to 58.5. After a down season last year, Mike Norvell and Florida State have appeared to return to standard. New OC Gus Malzahn has been great with QB Thomas Castellanos. This will be the Seminole’s first test since the Alabama win in week 1, and UVA is no push over. The Cavs are 3-1, scoring over 30 points in each game. QB Chandler Morris has been one of the more efficient QBs in the country. UVA’s defense has been leaky, as they rank 92nd in EPA/rush and 72nd in EPA/pass. I do not see the FSU defense replicating the Alabama performance in a short week on the road. I think UVA has a somewhat of a chance to win this outright if they somehow find a way to stale FSU’s offense. From what I have seen, that will not happen. The over has sailed in all 4 UVA games as well as all 3 FSU games. 35-31 FSU

0.5u: TCU ML +170 (FRI PROFIT BOOST) ❌

Saturday – September 27th

Cincinnati / Kansas o55 -112

• Both teams should find success through the air. Cincy ranks 8th EPA/Pass on offense against a Kansas defense which ranks 85th EPA/pass. Kansas offense 22nd EPA/pass while Cincy defense sits at 102nd. Bowling Green’s Drew Pyne managed 29/36 274 yards against the Bearcats a few weeks back. The tempo will not be a track meet, but both teams will be able to sustain drives and convert into points. Kansas 33-27.

Bowling Green +10.5 -114

• Ohio started slow last week against Gardner Webb before pulling away. Ohio has played a tough non-conference schedule for a MAC school, but their defense had issues against Rutgers, Ohio State, and Gardner Webb. Bowling Green’s defense ranks 32nd in EPA/rush, which will be needed against Ohio’s dynamic rushing attack that includes QB Parker Navarro. BGSU 3-0 ATS L3 against Cincinnati, Liberty, and Louisville. This should have a slower pace with limited explosive plays, which should allow BGSU a good opportunity to keep this within single digits on the road.

Arkansas +4.5 -110

• Ark & ND may take their turn going straight up and down the field on Saturday. The total is set for 64.5, which is very high for a ND vs SEC matchup. Both teams have glaring defensive issues. I was hoping to see ND’s defense turn it around last week against Purdue; however, the Boilermakers found success on offense. The Irish also struggled against Marcel Reed and Texas A&M’s tall, physical receivers. Elko even pointed out that was their mismatch they felt like they could win. Arkansas also has physical WRs and one of the country’s most dynamic QBs in Taylen Green. ND has ranked 130th in NET EPA/Play on defense while ranking 125 in pass success rate. Arkansas defense has had issues against the run, as they rank 107th in EPA/rush. That is a huge concern against the backfield of Love & Price. CJ Carr looks really promising for the future. He carved up Purdue last week going 10/12 for 223 yards with an 18.6 Y/A. It is easy to believe that ND’s defense will see positive regression given their SOS, but I am not sure it happens this week. They have shown too many holes on film and Ark’s offense may be the best unit they have faced yet. Arkansas ranks #1 in the country in explosive play percentage. Both teams have been well-tested already and should be prepared to handle the atmosphere. Both teams have also suffered gut-wrenching losses late in the 4th Q. Sam Pittman’s job status needs a win here. If Taylen Green can take care of the football, I believe they can get a stop or two given HFA. 37-34 Woo Pig.

Illinois +7 -115 (SAT MORNING ADD)

• Illinois will be without top DB Xavier Scott, but they are getting some depth back for this game. After last week’s showing @ Indiana, the Illini will be looking to put it behind them with a huge win over USC. It is a tough travel spot for the Trojans with the noon EST kick on the other side of the country. Illinois will need to find an answer for USC’s passing game. Jayden Maiava has been the nation’s most efficient QB thus far. I just love the spot after Illinois being demolished last weekend. I believe it will be a sleepy start for USC. They will success in the 2nd half, but it will be too late. I would try to find a 7 around if possible.

Central Michigan -5.5 -110

• Eastern Michigan’s defense is bottom of the country against a weak SOS. I believe CMU is a solid MAC team. They beat San Jose St as 14.5 dogs week 1 then played Pitt in somewhat of a decent game before losing it late 4th Q. EMU has found offensive success, but CMU has the defense to stop them. CMU’s offense is not very good, but EMU has allowed yardage to everyone. 27-14 Chippewas.

Ole Miss ML -113

• Ole Miss has stepped up play the last few weeks with a win over Arkansas and a dominant blowout win over Tulane. I do believe LSU is legit, but tough spot. The key to beating Ole Miss is to establish the run, as they rank 123rd in EPA/rush on defense. However, LSU has struggled to do that, as they rank 89th in EPA/rush on offense. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss has torched opponents since stepping into the starting role. Tiger defense has been elite, but his rushing ability will be a presence they have yet to face from a QB this season. This game always delivers. It will have fireworks once again. I like Ole Miss to win a big one at home.

Toledo -20.5 -110

• Toledo was upset as a two TD favorite last week at Western Michigan. It was a nice early wake up call for the potential MAC champion. Now they get to regroup back at home against Akron. The Zips have shown offensive life their last two games against UAB and Duquesne but this Toledo defense will be a step up. I like the spot here. 45-7 Toledo.

UConn -3.5 -105

• Buffalo’s QB, was hurt in last week’s matchup against Troy and not expected to suit up this week. Once he went down, Buffalo struggled to find anything offensively. UConn offense ranks 12th in NET EPA/Play and should be able to score against Buffalo. The Bulls will bleed the clock against a bad UConn defense, but I think the Huskies can manage the stops against the backup. 31-20 UConn.

Baylor -20.5 -110

• Oklahoma State fired Mike Gundy on Tuesday after a 21-year tenure which makes little sense after they allowed Gundy to handle the press conference for this game on Monday. OSU has only played 3 games, which allows players to take a red-shirt this season while entering the transfer portal. I am not expecting a “dead man’s jump” from OSU this weekend. They have turned their full focus to replacing Gundy for next season. The players are trying to worry about the future of their career. Baylor has had defensive issues, but don’t think OSU has the big play capability to burn them.

Texas A&M / Auburn o52.5 -105

• Auburn will come out ready to go after reviewing film and seeing how bad they were screwed last week against OU. A&M’s defense ranks 92nd in EPA/rush, which is what Auburn’s offense excels at. Auburn’s defense has ranked 114th EPA/pass, which is where Marcel Reed and A&M’s offense has found success. With both offenses having strengths that play into the defense’s weaknesses, I expect a few explosive plays in a game that features plenty of explosive athletes. I believe Auburn has a chance here but A&M stays alive late. 30-27 A&M.

Washington +10.5 -115

• Play to +7.5. I am a believer in this Washington offense. Demond Williams and Jonah Coleman are one of the best QB/RB combos in the entire country. The Huskies have had 29 offensive drives this season, scoring on 23 of them. This Buckeye defense will by far be the toughest test to date. Ohio State is great, this is their first road game with a freshman QB. Sayin has the weapons and may handle the pressure, but UW has not lost at home since 2022. Washington’s 22 straight home wins is the second longest streak in the nation (Georgia). I like the firepower and explosiveness of this offense, I believe it will keep them in the game on Saturday. Upset watch?

Air Force -4.5 -110

• Hawaii’s defense ranks 116th in EPA/rush. Air Force offense ranks 19th in EPA/rush. They managed 500+ yards of offense against Boise last weekend. Hawaii is 2-10 SU in their L12 off the island. AF has the mismatch advantage. I like this spread up to 7 and would also lean over.

Memphis / FAU o61.5 -110

• FAU plays at the fastest tempo in the nation. Memphis is the most efficient G5 offense in the nation. Tigers should face little problems putting points on the board. FAU runs the air raid and will be tossing it around from behind here. Memphis is in a let down spot on the road after a huge non-conference SEC win against Arkansas. I would not be surprised to see them allow FAU to connect on a few explosives. Memphis 45-28.

Arizona / Iowa State u49.5 -110

• Both teams are fresh off a bye week which has allowed extra preparation for this big 12 matchup under the lights. Arizona defense ranks 2nd in net EPA/Play. They shut down Kansas State’s offense, only allowing 88 passing yards and 105 rushing yards. Iowa State is a balanced team, but did not find much offensive success in their last two matchups. I would also have a slight lean to Arizona ML.

Stanford -2 -109

• Good to 3. This is a step down in competition for Stanford. San Jose State has struggled in their 3 games. After already losing outright to CMU as -14.5 favorites, SJSU survived a scare from FCS Idaho last week as -14.5. Stanford’s only home game resulted in an upset win over Boston College as 14 point underdogs. Stanford is not a good football team, but I feel like the market is a little bullish on them here given the situation. This is their best pregame chance at another win for the remainder of the season.

South Carolina -5.5 -110

• Good to 7. Kentucky will be rolling with Cutter Boley at QB post-bye week on the road. He did well in his start against Eastern Michigan and has flashed a little upside in his time under center. From what I have seen, UK is about to struggle with this SEC schedule. This may end up being their closest pre-game spread. I thought SC played better last week. Sellers looked like the potential number one overall pick that he is. It’s a must win situation and Beamer and SC are desperate.

La Tech / UTEP u48.5 -115

• Both teams have a defense ranking inside top 60 in NET EPA/Play. Their offenses rank outside the top 100 in NET EPA/Play. UTEP plays at a solid pace, but likely because they have been playing from behind every game. La Tech has had some success running the ball, but UTEP’s defense ranks 36th in EPA/rush. 24-20 La Tech.

OTHER BETS

I have received the profit boosts received for Friday night and the 2 big games.

I played small amounts on:

• TCU ML (+170)
• Alabama ML (+210)
• Oregon ML (+220)

No FCS updates this week

FULL CARD

BIG GAME WRITE UPS

I have yet to finalize but my likely approach to these two games will be to use any profit boosts on Alabama & Oregon ML. By doing that, it should be able to guarantee a decent profit with either winning outright.

Alabama @ Georgia

• After a bye week for each, Alabama and Georgia will meet up in Athens on Saturday night for another big time matchup. This line has trended towards Alabama, as UGA opened -4 earlier this summer. Alabama will be getting two key players back from injury: DL Tim Keenan and RB Jam Miller. After a lackluster week one showing against FSU, the Tide made drastic improvements against ULM and Wisconsin. Their offense can be explosive, featuring two of the nation’s top WRs in Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams. I am a Ty Simpson believer and he has been on fire since the FSU outcome. Georgia allowed TN’s Joey Aguilar to toss for 371 for 4 TDs while facing minimal pressure. I am not ready to call Georgia’s secondary & pass rush bad, but they better pray they fixed a the leaks during the bye week because Alabama’s passing game will exploit through the air. After facing some criticism for the Austin Peay showing, Gunnar Stockton and the Georgia offense lit up Tennessee on the road for 44 points. Stockton is the QB prototype that Alabama defenses have struggled containing the last couple seasons. Alabama’s defensive unit has also made positive adjustments since the FSU performance. Their pass defense is a lot better than what Tennessee has to offer. However, a shootout isn’t Georgia’s game plan. They will want to establish the run, which is possible against Bama’s run defense. I do believe both of these defenses are not the standard units we are used to seeing from these programs. I see Bama having success against Georgia’s pass defense and I see Georgia have success against Bama’s run defense. I would lean over as both offenses match up well, but I don’t see this game having a fast tempo. The Dawgs have the nation’s longest active home winning streak for good reason. Alabama has improved, but can they do it on the road? This would be a big win for Kalen DeBoer and a huge confidence booster for the Alabama locker room. Georgia is 1-9 in their L10 vs Bama, giving Kirby Smart a 1-6 record against them as HC. Bama 31-24.

Oregon @ Penn State

• After both feasting on lower quality opponents, Oregon will travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. Oregon leads the country in adjusted EPA per play, which will be needed against an always tough Penn State defense. Dante Moore is currently up to 2nd in Heisman odds. The dual threat is completing 74% of his passes with an impressive 11-1 TD-INT ratio. The offensive line has only allowed one sack all season and will be needed to step up against a dangerous Penn State front. On the other side of the ball, Penn State has yet to find its rhythm on offense. Penn State is 0-3 ATS and did not crack 60 points against any of Nevada, FIU, or Villanova. Given their quality of opponent, they haven’t had to open the playbook so they may have a few things up their sleeve for this matchup. QB Drew Allar has struggled at times to throw the ball effectively downfield. Oregon’s run defense seems leaky at times, which is worrisome against Singleton & Allen running behind this PSU offensive line. If Penn State’s defense can step up to the opponent, Oregon’s run defense may be exploited right into PSU’s game plan. If Oregon can get ahead, I worry about Allar’s ability to throw downfield in a shoot out. Given Oregon’s offensive firepower and Dante Moore’s ability to extend plays, I lean Ducks getting the points. It is a good spot at home, but James Franklin has struggled in these big games. Franklin is 4-20 SU vs opponents ranked inside the top 10. Oregon 27-24.