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Hopefully you are enjoying the MLB Wild Card series. October is one of the best sports month of the year. Anyhow, Week 6 CFB. It seems like we have a down slate this weekend, but money to be made. Let’s dive in.

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Friday – October 3rd

Delaware -2.5 -110 ❌

• This game sets up for a fun watch. I also liked the over as we should see plenty of offense. WKU is 4-1 ATS but the market has been fading them the last few weeks. They only covered the Nevada game due to returning the onside kick for a TD. The Hilltoppers are tied as favorites to win the CUSA, but this is a tough spot for them. Short week on the road after a late night win on Saturday. Delaware had a bye last week, which allowed a little extra preparation. WKU’s defensive numbers are not awful on paper, but they have yet to play an offense as good as Delaware’s. The Hens should be able to find success through the air and on the ground. Delaware 37-31.

New Mexico / San Jose State o57.5 -110 ✅

• The San Jose State passing game has picked up over the last two games. New Mexico’s defense has been much improved from last season’s but the Lobos have yet to face an offense as powered as SJSU’s since week 1 vs Michigan. New Mexico plays at a slower pace, but San Jose State will be the opposite. Both teams have a high rate of big-time throw % so we likely see a few explosives. 35-33 SJSU.

Saturday – October 4th

Wisconsin +17.5 -115

• After b2b disappointing performances against Alabama and Maryland, Wisconsin had a bye week last week to regroup. It appears that QB Billy Edwards will not be returning this week, so Danny O’Neil will likely remain under center. I think this game stays at a slow pace with both teams leaning on their rushing attack. Michigan 27-17.

UAB +8.5 -110 (wouldn’t bite under 7, maybe sprinkle ML)

• UAB’s offensive numbers are legit. They rank 27th in EPA/Play and 17th in offensive success. Army’s defense has leaked against the pass. UAB’s defense is not a good unit, but they have already seen a similar offensive scheme from when they played Navy in week 2. Army will score, but I like the Blazers to score with them in a shootout. 41-35 UAB.

Kansas State +6.5 -105

• Yeah, I don’t believe we see a 7 popping up here. Baylor has defensive issues with stopping the run as they rank 97th in EPA/rush. Auburn, SMU, Arizona State, and even Oklahoma State all found success on the ground. RB Dylan Edwards is back healthy for KSU, as he had 166 yards on the ground in his first game back against UCF. QB Avery Johnson is also a huge threat with his legs. Baylor’s offense will find success, as Kansas State has also had defensive issues but I believe we get a close game here. Baylor 31-27

Cincinnati ML -120

• Brandon Sorsby has been one of the better QBs in the country. The Bearcats lit Kansas up last weekend for 37 points on the road. Cincy’s offense has the #5 ranked EPA/Pass and #21 ranked EPA/rush. Their offensive success rate also ranks 10th. Per usual, this Iowa State defense is a solid unit. However, they are banged up in the secondary which could present a problem against this Cincy offense. The Beacats defense is #133 in EPA/pass, which is a concern. Iowa State’s passing game is not bad (48th EPA/pass), but it is not as good as Kansas. Give me Cincy on the ML in what could be a potential shootout. 31-27 Cincy.

Georgia -20.5 -108

• Terrible spot for Kentucky with this being the back half of a B2B road trip. Kentucky has no passing game. They rank 131st in EPA/pass on offense, which is the blueprint to beating Georgia. TN and Bama both tossed it around with success, but Kentucky is not capable of doing that. They have had success running the football, but Georgia’s defense has always been nails at stopping the run (11th in EPA/rush). Bounce back for the Bennett and the UGA offense against a Kentucky defense ranked 77th in EPA/Pass. Georgia is 0-4 ATS as Kirby does not really care about covering. These games have also been close in the past few years, but I believe this UK team is worse among the last couple to come through. Update: Kentucky is getting steamed a little. May be able to find a -19.5.

UTSA / Temple o56.5 -110

• Temple’s offense ranks #23 in NET EPA/Pass, which will come in handy against a UTSA defense that ranks 108th in EPA/Pass. It is hard to put much into Temple’s numbers due to their 4 games being: UMass (blowout win), Howard (blowout win), Oklahoma (blowout loss) and Georgia Tech (blowout loss). UTSA’s rushing attack is one of the best in the country behind RB Robert Henry. He has rushed for at least 144 yards in every game this season. UTSA is a team that often finds themselves in shootouts. Both Temple and UTSA are 3-1 to the over this season.

Oregon State ML +108

• 0-5 start for the Beavs, but they have had the toughest SOS in the country. After an underperforming first two games against Cal and Fresno, they were rightfully blown out by Texas Tech and Oregon. They had a better performance last week against Houston. Came up short, but covered with ease. This is a tricky road trip across the country, but they are playing better football with each game. App is not a team I am sold on. They were blown out in their L2 games on the road against Southern Miss and Boise. Their offense has struggled to find any kind of success, especially passing the ball. I wish the game was in Corvallis, but I believe OSU is the better team here. They are starving for their first win which negates the road trip hangover for me. Beavs 27-24.

Old Dominion -19.5 -115

• This is good for me until it crosses 21. I am not putting much stock into Coastal’s win over South Alabama. It was a breakout for the Coastal offense, but this ODU defense will be a huge step up in competition. ODU has looked like a G5 playoff contender. QB Colton Joseph is dynamic with his legs and arm and Coastal’s defense will not have an answer for him. ODU is 3-1 ATS. They failed to cover the -14.5 with a 21-7 win vs Liberty last weekend, but dominated the box score with over 760 yards of total offense. It would have been an easy cover without the 3 fumbles lost. 41-14.

UNLV / Wyoming u51.5 -110

• Both of these teams are off the bye week and play at a slow pace. Having three bye weeks due to playing week 0, the Rebels only played two games the entire month of September. With this being a tricky road trip, we may see some hangover to start the game. UNLV has explosiveness, but Wyoming does not. UNLV has struggled against the run (127th EPA/rush), but I don’t believe Wyoming will bully them enough to exploit it. Winds are typically heavy in Laraime. I do not see either team finding success through the air. Unders 2-0 at Wyoming this season.

TCU -13.5 +100

• This is a tough spot for the Buffs after a tough home loss to BYU. TCU will be returning home after a gut-wrenching loss to Arizona State last Friday. The Horned Frogs have offensive firepower as their passing attack ranks 33rd in EPA/Pass. Colorado’s secondary has been vulnerable, ranking #105th in EPA/Pass. TCU has leaked defensively against the pass, but I don’t believe Colorado doesn’t have the air attack to exploit it on the road. TCU rolls.

Memphis -20.5 -105

• I believe this is a let down spot for Tulsa. It has been a tough 3 game stretch. After upsetting Oklahoma State, Tulane came into Tulsa and walked away with a 31-14 win last week. Memphis looks like they may walk through the American. No hangover after the Arkansas win, as they dominated FAU on the road. Memphis rushing atttack is #1 in EPA/rush while Tulsa’s defense is 74th in EPA/rush. Tulsa has had minimal offensive production this season, as they rank in the hundred in nearly every key advanced stat. Memphis 56-17.

UCF +5.5 -110

• UCF returns back to the bounce house after a tough road loss to Kansas State. The Golden Knights are a pretty balanced squad, ranking well in every stat. Kansas EPA/Pass is ranks 3rd in the country, but UCF defense ranks 9th in EPA/Pass and 19th in success rate. They have been explored on the ground some, but Kansas offense ranks 98th in EPA/rush. On the other side, UCF sits 36th in EPA/Pass on offense while Kansas defense ranks 102nd. Kansas is a solid team, but give me the points with UCF at home in a rocking atmosphere under the lights.

Fresno State -13.5 -110

• Nevada has no answer on offense. They cannot pass against anyone (136th EPA/Pass) , and Fresno defense stuffs the opponents rushing attack (18th EPA/rush). On offense Fresno is pretty balanced, but Nevada struggled to stop the rush (134th EPA / rush). Fresno will have the mismatch at home here.

Duke -2.5 -110 – SATURDAY ADD

• Hate backing these cross country conference road trips but Duke played an impressive game against Syracuse last Saturday. Duke’s offense has been good all season Mensah is elite The defense finally elevated their game against Syracuse. It was against a backup QB, but I believe they will continue success into this week. I’m not sure if Cal’s offense is good enough to exploit Duke. I’ll take my chances with the Blue Devils on the road. Duke 30-24