Hello everyone, welcome to Week 7.

I will be headed to Neyland for the first time this season to watch the Vols take on Arkansas.

It has been an unreal start to the season, but regression is likely due to hit at some point. Stay to your units.

Shoot me a message on X if you have any questions.

Hit subscribe for free at the bottom to receive the WordPress on Wednesday release.

Check back for updates.

Saturday morning update: A few lines moved against me this week. UTSA is down to -9.5 and the Temple / Navy total is down to 52.5. 24s becoming available for NC State.

Thursday – October 9th

Louisiana Tech -6 -110 ❌

• -5.5 now. La Tech heads to Kennesaw State for a mid week CUSA matchup. The Bulldogs are sitting at 4-1 with their only loss being to LSU in a game they played well. Kennesaw State is 3-2 with wins over Merrimack, Arkansas State, and MTSU. This will be Kennesaw’s 4th consecutive home game. Both teams did were off on Saturday so I am not too concerned about the travel for La Tech. Kennesaw State’s offense ranks 110th in EPA/pass & 126th in EPA/rush. Louisiana Tech’s defense will eat as they rank 21st in both EPA / pass & rush. They also have the 12th best success rate. La Tech’s offense does not grade out well, but they have picked it up over their last 3 games, scoring 30+ in each game.

East Carolina +7 -110 (Push)

• East Carolina (3-2, 4-1 ATS) will travel to Tulane (4-1 (3-2 ATS) for an American conference matchup with potential heavy implications. ECU is a good football team. They are led by QB Katin Houser, whom is averaging 301.8 YPG through the air. ECU’s offense ranks 28th in EPA/pass but 119th in EPA/rush. Tulane ranks 31st in EPA/ pass, but a large part of that is due to Preston Stone’s performance in week one. Tulane’s offense may have a tough time against ECU’s stout defense. The Pirates rank 44th in EPA/pass & 7th in EPA/rush. They managed to hold Army’s rushing attack to only 6 points last game. Tulane’s offense ranks 88th EPA/pass and 85th in EPA/rush. Tulane’s success rate has been much better when running the ball compared to passing, but ECU’s defensive success rate against the rush ranks 4th in the country. ECU 27-20.

Friday – October 10th

North Texas ML +100 ❌

• We are in for a Friday Night banger between two potential G5 playoff representatives. The atmosphere will be rocking as UNT is giving away all kinds of promotions for this game to drive up attendance numbers. The total sits at 67.5 due to these two teams ranking inside the top 20 in seconds per play and notoriously find themselves in shootouts. However, both teams have made defensive improvements this season. North Texas defense ranks 27th in EPA / pass while USF offense ranks 73rd. North Texas has struggled against the run, with a 104th ranked success rate but USF offense only ranks 96th in rushing success rate. North Texas offense ranks 27th in EPA / pass and 15th in EPA / rush while having a good success rate with both. USF has played the much tougher schedule, but I’ll side with the Mean Green to pull off a huge win.

Saturday – October 11th

Alabama -3 -110

• I sat on this hoping it would keep steaming towards Missouri but I don’t believe we ever see anything under 3. It opened Alabama -6.5. I am not going to go too much into the numbers here. Missouri’s stats are elite on both sides of the ball, but they have played the easiest schedule in the SEC. They had a slow start against Kansas before coming back in the 2nd half. It’s also wild they do not play a game away from CoMo until Week 8. Anyhow, I love Alabama’s passing attack. Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard are a nightmare for opposing DB rooms. I don’t see Mizzou’s staying with them. Ty Simpson has the hot hand. This is a noon game on the road, so I worry about the slow start, but I think this team is past that. Alabama’s defense has came a long ways since the Florida State showing. This will be the toughest test to date for Missouri’s offense. RB Ahmad Hardy leads the country with 730 rushing yards in 5 games. Alabama did allow a 65 yard TD run to Vanderbilt and 2 43 yard rushes to Georgia. I’m sure they will be keyed in on Hardy as the focal point. This will be a good game. Drink will have Missouri prepared and ready to go, but I believe Bama will just be too much. Bama 31-24.

NC State +23 -110

• This is a huge number. Notre Dame will be able to put up points here, but I believe CJ Bailey and the Wolfpack can find success against through the air against this ND defense. Notre Dame’s defensive success rate against the pass ranks 95th. The Irish did have their best defensive showing of the season last week against Boise, but I don’t think Boise’s offense is as powerful as NC State’s especially through the air. The Pack rank 13th in EPA/Pass & 56th in EPA/Rush. Freeman likes to cover the spread, but I will side with NC State on anything above 21.

Old Dominion -13.5 -110

• Going back to the well until it’s broken. I would prefer getting 13.5 or 14. ODU sits 2nd in odds to win the Sun Belt, but I believe they’re the best team in this conference. I still believe they are being undervalued by the market. They are 4-1 ATS and dominated the box score on the one game they didn’t cover. Marshall had a bye week to regroup after a tough 2OT loss to Louisiana where they allowed 21 points in the 4th quarter. Marshall’s offense ranks 20th in EPA/pass but ODU pass defense ranks 33rd in EPA/Pass & 25th in success rate. ODU’s concern has been stopping the run (64th EPA, 131st success rate) however, I do not see Marshall’s rushing attack (115th EPA/rush) to exploit it. Colten Joseph will continue success through the air and on the ground.

Texas ML -110

• The betting line expects John Mateer to play. Every report I have read expects him to suit up. He was listed questionable on Wednesday’s report. If he does play, he will be returning to the field 17 days post surgery on a broken bone in his throwing hand.

• I am not sure I have seen an “unranked” team favored over the #6 team in the country. If anyone has ATS stats for unranked teams favored against ranked teams, please share. Anyhow, which team scores here? This will likely be first team to blink as both defenses are elite. They rank near the top on nearly every defensive category. Oklahoma has the #1 success rate against the pass and rush, which is insane. Texas slipped up last week, but finally locked in a held Florida scoreless in the 4th quarter to open the door for a potential comeback. Talented DB Malik Muhammad was listed as probable on Wednesday’s SEC injury report. He hasn’t played since week 3 against UTEP and was severely missed Saturday against Florida. Similar to everyone, I have been bullish on Arch Manning while watching Texas games. He has missed a few easy throws, but the offensive line is not helping him out. Learning chemistry with new WRs and a constant injured RB room doesn’t help. this was an obvious large jump in competition for him from his 2A level Louisiana HS days. Looking back at it, it was wild he was preseason Heisman favorite while leading the preseason #1 team in the country. It’s been 7 games. Let the kid improve himself running Sark’s system. OU’s defense may end up eating him alive, but I expect max effort from Texas here.
• My approach to this will be Texas ML while buying some stock in John Mateer to win the Heisman at +1500 on DraftKings. I would confirm he is playing before placing, but If Mateer leads OU to win this game, I am confident that he will jump right back into the race with Moore, Beck, Simpson, and Smith. OU had a bye week so he only missed the Kent State game….. 17 days post throwing hand surgery and beat your biggest rival? That story will catch fire.

1.5u: TCU / Kansas State o55.5 -110

• TCU’s L3 games have went under, but I believe the market over-adjusted here. This has not been the start to the season that Kansas State was hoping for. Despite having a good defensive success rate, they rank 78th in EPA/Pass & 88th in EPA/rush. Baylor’s Sawyer Robinson tossed for 345 yards last week against KSU. Josh Hoover and TCU’s passing attack can find similar success. The Frogs have managed 30+ points in every game but one this season. KSU’s Avery Johnson had his best performance of the season against Baylor where he tossed for 339 yards. He was also the team’s leading rusher with 72 on the ground. TCU’s defense ranks 114th in EPA/Pass and 72nd in EPA/rush.

Penn State -21 -115

• I bought the 0.5 here. This may tick down to 21 on Saturday but I went ahead and locked it. I like backing these strong teams to bounce back after a tough loss. I know you are saying but what about Penn State last week; however, that was cross country travel against a team with a new offensive identity. They had minimal prep for Jerry calling plays for Nico. Nico beat them with his legs on broken plays, something Northwestern’s Preston Stone cannot do. In NW’s two losses, Stone has thrown 6 INTs. Northwestern’s defense ranks 116th in EPA/rush and 92nd in success rate so Singleton & Allen should feast on the ground. I expect Penn State to play pissed off here back at home. 45-10.

Navy / Temple o53.5 -110

• Our over missed with UTSA/Temple last week, but this is a similar set up but 3 points lower. I expected Temple to play from behind last week and they won outright. Navy’s offensive stats are better than UTSA’s. They rank 3rd in EPA/Pass and 4th in EPA/Rush. They have had success on early downs as well as 3rd down. Navy has put up 35+ points in every game besides Rice (They still managed 450+ yards of offense). Temple’s defense is not a bad unit. They stepped up last week to hold onto the win. Navy is a current 9.5 point favorite so maybe this week we will see Temple play from behind. Temple’s EPA/pass on offense ranks 15th while Navy’s defensive EPA/pass sits at 106th. Navy 35-27

Florida / Texas A&M o45.5 -110

• DJ Lagway had his best performance of the season last week against a stout Texas defense. Florida finally decided to take chances downfield as Lagway averaged 10.6 Y/A, his highest mark by far this season. Since he missed the Texas game last season, this will be DJ’s first trip back to his home state. He will have a section in the stands for him. Texas A&M is 5-0 for the first time since 2016. Their first three games sailed over the total, but they have found something defensively since the bye week. In their two SEC games, Aggies held Auburn to 10 and Miss State to 9. In those two games, they have dominated in the trenches posting 200+ yards in each. RB Le’Veon Moss was banged up, but I didn’t see him on tonight’s injury report. Florida busted up the Texas weak O-Line last week, but A&M’s offensive line has the highest graded unit in the country. Low total here. Weather looks good. 27-24 A&M.

Tennessee -9.5 -120 (Saturday add)

• I will bite. Knock on wood, but I have not witnessed a TN home loss since 2018. Yes, I am worried about Arkansas showing some life under Petrino but this is a revenge spot for TN after the loss last season. I was in attendance in 2023 when the Vols revenged against South Carolina. I do not see how Arkansas stops this Tennessee offense. The Vols have the #1 scoring offense in the country. Both teams have shown defensive issues, which is why we have a total near 70. I am expecting Tennessee’s defense to have a better performance here post-bye week. Notre Dame showed a very good blueprint two weeks ago. Vols 45-31

Kansas / Texas Tech o58.5 -110

• FanDuel. Both teams will air it out here. Kansas offense is 3rd in EPA/Pass while Tech’s ranks 6th in EPA/Pass. Texas Tech has looked like the best team in the Big 12 so far. The books agree as they have the Raiders placed as a -120 to win the conference. Arizona State comes in 2nd at +700. Their usual offensive explosiveness has continued this season averaging 48.6 PPG. Their defense has really stepped up this season. They rank 34th in EPA/Pass and 1st in EPA/rush. However, the Strength of Schedule ranks 81st. They have a dominant win on the road at Utah but outside of that it’s been Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kent State, Oregon State, and Houston. None of those teams have the passing attack of Jayden Daniels and Kansas. The Jayhawks have posted 30+ points in every game besides last week where they got off to a sloppy first half start. I expect Tech’s defense to come up with a few stops and I don’t see Kansas slowing Tech down offensively. Jayhawks pass heavy playing from behind here. I would lean Texas Tech on the spread as well. TT 45-24. Update: Texas Tech popped 3 players on the Wednesday injury report: LB and 2 starting offensive linemen.

USC ML -130

• Unranked team favored at home against a ranked team. USC lost to on the road Illinois 2 weeks ago. They return back home needing a bounce back after a week of extra preparation. USC’s offense sits 1st in EPA/Pass while Michigan’s defense ranks 54th in EPA/Pass. In three home games this season, (Missouri St, Ga Southern, Mich St) USC scored 73, 59, and 45. USC’s defense has had two weeks to find a way to slow down Michigan’s rushing attack. Justice Haynes has recorded 100+ yards in every game while scoring 8 TDs. They really exploited Nebraska’s defensive weakness two weeks ago. Stop Haynes and make Underwood beat you on the road. Wolverines rank 51st in EPA/Pass, but Bryce has struggled on the road. In the two road games, he managed 12/22 for 105 yards against Nebraska and 9/24 for 142 yards against Oklahoma. He has done of good job of limiting mistakes and taking care of the football, which works for Michigan’s style of play. With two weeks of prep, I trust Lincoln Riley comes out with a good script here. They need this win before heading to Notre Dame next weekend. USC 31-24.

Clemson -14 -110 (Saturday add)

• Boston College is severely banged up on defense. Clemson found some momentum last week against UNC, hanging 35 in the first half. I would also lean over, but I will take Clemson here hoping their offense continues success.

UTSA -12 -105

• UTSA returns home after 2 poor showings on the road against Colorado State and Temple. This will be their first home game in a month and presents a good opportunity for a bounce back performance. Rice’s defense ranks 91st in EPA/rush while UTSA’s offense ranks 27th in EPA/rush. UTSA’s defense ranks 122nd in EPA/Pass, but Rice’s offense sits at 103rd in offensive rush/EPA. UTSA has managed 18 penalties in their last 2 games. Not a good sign given they had the second most penalties in all of CFB in 2024. It can be fixed. If UTSA can clean it up, Rice will have a tough time keeping up.

LSU -8.5 -110

• NFL teams will have their eyes on these two QBs. I’m a little nervous about this given Sellers & SC have looked improved in their last two games but this is a tough spot. There have been reports of Nusseimier playing through injury this season, but he’s still my QB1 in the draft. His completion % is the highest of his career. It would help him out if LSU could ever establish the run. They rank 103rd in EPA/rush and 125th in rushing success rate. This is a good matchup to get it figured out post-bye against a SC defense that ranks 75th in EPA/rush. I hate targeting 2 possession favorites in a game with a low total, but LSU will have a big advantage on defense. Tigers have been solid in every statistical category on that side. SC offense ranks > 100 in EPA/rush, starting field position, Early down EPA, and avg 3rd down distance. LSU 27-13.

BYU / Arizona u49.5 -115

• I would play this down to 48. FD had a 49.5 posted. Both defenses lead the charge. BYU’s defense sits at 18th in EPA/Pass and 20th in EPA/Rush. Arizona sits at 2nd in EPA/Pass and 26th in EPA/Rush. All 4 Arizona home games have went under the total. BYU has went under in their two road games so far. Arizona’s offense ranks 92nd in EPA/Pass, 131st in avg 3rd down distance, and 94th in early down EPA which could set up for disaster against this Cougar defense. BYU 23-17.

Boise State -16.5 -105

• Fading New Mexico here on the 2nd half of b2b road conference games. Boise has looked improved since their week 1 loss against South Florida. They dominated both their home matchup against Eastern Washington and App State, covering each spread with ease. Boise’s defense played well against ND, holding the Irish to 28 points despite committing 4 interceptions. CJ Carr was held to under 200 yards passing for the first time this season. They will need a repeated performance against a New Mexico offense that ranks 38th in EPA/Pass. ND and Air Force found success on the ground, but NM’s rushing attack isn’t a huge threat ranking 92nd in EPA/rush.

Utah -7 -115

• I originally had this spot circled at -5.5 but did not bite. With Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt officially doubtful, I will jump before it crosses to 7.5. Utah was embarrassed in their last home game by Texas Tech, but they bounced back with a blowout win at WVU before having a bye week last weekend. Jeff Sims will be starting for Arizona State. He has experience as a 6th year guy, but he’s always been turnover-prone. The Sun Devils will need to run the ball effectively here against a stout defense, but I’m sure Utah will game-plan accordingly. Arizona State’s defense ranks 112th in EPA/rush with the 94th ranked success rate. Utah’s offensive line is one of the best in CFB. Utes force turnovers and roll here. Honestly, I would play this to 10.5. Some are pickier than me, but I wouldn’t hate it if you played up to -13.5. Utah 31-13.

Utah State ML -108

• It will be a long night for me on the East Coast with an island play this weekend but I like the Aggies in this spot. Both teams had a bye week last week. Utah State’s offense can put up points. In their 3 wins they have averaged 41.6 PPG. They even managed 22 vs Texas A&M and 35 vs Vanderbilt. Hawaii put up points against Air Force and Sam Houston, but rank 131st in EPA/rush and 89th in EPA/Pass. Utah State will want to shoot it out and I don’t see Hawaii keeping up.