Hello everyone, welcome to Week 8.

We are sitting 1-0 this week after FIU’s outright win over WKU. I liked Jacksonville State -3 Wednesday tonight but decided not to pull the trigger.

I will be updating this throughout next few days. Check back for updates. I also post my picks on the Action app: WRBets.

As always, be sure to hit subscribe on the bottom free of charge to receive this on Wednesday.

Saturday Morning Update: No adds. We had a few move in the opposite direction. Get the best number.

Update: Clemson QB Cade Klubnik is out.

Friday – October 17th

Louisville / Miami u51.5 -110 ✅

• Louisville heads to Miami for an important Friday night ACC matchup. Both teams will be fresh off their bye week with plenty of preparation. Louisville has had offensive line issues this season, which is a concern against Miami’s elite defensive line. Louisville’s pass blocking and run blocking grades are among the worst in the ACC. On the other side of the ball, Louisville defense ranks 1st in EPA/pass. Miami’s offensive line has done a great job of protecting Beck. He also has one of the quickest releases times in the country. Miami’s defensive line should feast here while they rely on the rushing attack. I originally leaned Louisville on the spread, but I’m not seeing it. 31-17 Miami.

Minnesota / Nebraska o47 -110 ❌

• Nebraska sits 5-1 to the over as their only under came in week 1 against Cincinnati in Arrowhead. Minnesota sits 4-2 to the over with last week’s game barely staying under. Minnesota has to find a rushing attack here. RB Darius Taylor has been making his way back from injury. Taylor was the leading receiver last week, racking up 11 targets. Nebraska has struggled to stop the run, ranking 107th in EPA/Rush and 125th in success rate. Nebraska should find success on offense here as Minnesota struggled to stop Nebraska’s passing attack. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin went 23/27 with 326 yards two weeks ago. California’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele managed 24/38 for 279 yards and 3 TDs. Both teams have been poor in Red Zone defense. I would also lean Minnesota on the spread. Cornhuskers escape 31-27.

North Carolina +10.5 -110 ✅

• This is not for the weak. UNC has been out-scored 130-33 in their Power 4 games (TCU, UCF, Clemson). Year 1 in college football has been a learning experience for Bill Belichick. With the drama during the bye week, this team needs to show something Friday night. Both Bill and UNC have clarified that they believe in a future. I have no idea what UNC will decide at QB. Gio Lopez has returned from injury and listed as the starter on the unofficial depth chart. QB Max Johnson (2.39) has a much quicker release time than Lopez (2.99) , which reduced the number of sacks. Cal’s defense has been good against the pass, so I do not expect UNC’s QB to drop back 40+ times like Johnson did against Clemson. Tar Heels offense ranks 81st in EPA/ rush and Cal’s defense sits at 89th in EPA/rush. On offense, the Bears rank 105th in EPA/Pass & 112th in EPA/rush. UNC has been solid at stopping the run (22nd EPA/Rush). If they can slow down Cal’s passing game, I believe they can keep this close. Cal 23-17.

Saturday – October 18th

LSU / Vanderbilt o47.5 -115

• Vandy is favored at home against a top 10 SEC team for the first time ever. LSU’s defense has been great; however, SC posted 193 rushing yards last weekend. Sellers rushed 22 times, but LSU did a good job of holding him in check. Linebacker Whit Weeks is listed as questionable. Vanderbilt’s offense ranks 5th in EPA/Rush and 8th in EPA/Pass. LSU cannot establish the run on offense. They rank a whopping 116th in EPA/Rush. Garrett Nussmeier provided his 2nd highest QBR of the season last week and even added 30 yards on the ground. He played through a tough injury early on, but claimed to have felt better against SC. LSU will need the best version of Nuss if they hope to win this game as Vandy’s defense ranks 111th in EPA/Pass. Vandy 28-27.
• Update: LSU WR2 Aaron Anderson is listed probable. He hasn’t played since Ole Miss.
• Update: LSU LB Whit Weeks is out. Boost to Vandy run game.

Duke ML -115

• Unranked team favored at home against a ranked opponent. I have no idea what the numbers are on this, but it has been a solid system for me. Last week we had USC, North Texas, Utah, and Texas (neutral but much closer to home), which managed 3-1. The week before it was Cincinnati and Louisville which ended 1-1. It will not hit every time, but it’s a decent rate. Outside of that, Duke has played really well since the beginning of ACC play. This offense should have success here. Blue Devils rank 14th in EPA/Pass and 44th EPA/Rush while Tech’s defense ranks 62nd in EPA/Pass & 105th in EPA/rush. On defense Duke struggles to stop the pass, ranking 92nd in EPA/Pass and 114th success rate. However, GT’s offensive blueprint is to run the ball. Duke ranks 14th in success rate against the rush. Duke has only faced one QB that is a threat with his legs like Haynes King and that was Jake Retzlaff from Tulane. Retzlaff finished with 111 yards on 17 carries in the week 3 matchup. This will be a good game. We saw Georgia Tech start slow on the road against Wake Forest. I think Darian Mensah finds success against this Tech defense. Duke 34-31.

West Virginia +7.5 -110

• One thing stands out to me here UCF’s defense ranks 114th in EPA/rush and 77th in success rate against the rush. Rich Rod and WVU will be off the bye week with two weeks of preparation. His blueprint is to pound the rock, as WVU ranks 25th in rushing yards per game. I hope they find success on the ground here, but it is unlikely they find anything through the air. QB Khalil Wilkins had 23 rushing attempts against BYU. Rich Rod’s offense works best with a rushing QB and former starting QB Nicco Marchiol was not a serious threat. On defense, WVU ranks 44th in EPA/Rush and 31st in success rate while UCF ranks 29th in rushing yards per game. Country Roads, take me home. WVU 27-24.

Buffalo -16.5 -110

• Buffalo had a bye week to get healthy. QB Ta’Quon Robinson had a huge game in his return from injury in an OT win against Eastern Michigan, providing 272 passing yards with 3 TDs. UMass is the worst team in the country by a pretty wide margin. Outside of scoring 10 points in week 1 against Temple, UMass hasn’t eclipsed double digits against a FBS opponent. They have allowed 6 TDs against every FBS opponent besides Western Michigan. Bryant is 0-5 in FCS play, but they have a FBS win on the road against UMass. Their WR1, Jacquon Gibson, was out last week against Kent State. UMass HC said he is hoping he is more questionable than out this week, but that isn’t promising. Buffalo will eat in the trenches regardless. Bulls 38-7.

UNLV / Boise State o61.5 -108

• This number opened at 68.5 and dropped all the way down to the current 61.5. I was hoping to get a 60.5 or maybe 59.5, but I don’t see it coming. Both teams should find success on the ground. UNLV’s EPA/Rush on offense ranks 22nd while Boise’s defense sits at 109th in EPA/Rush. Boise’s offense ranks 50th in EPA/Rush while UNLV’s defense ranks 134th. Boise has scored 40+ points in all 4 of their wins, averaging over 6 yards per carry in those games. UNLV has scored 30+ points in every game this season. UNLV’s RB, Jai’Den Thomas is very explosive, averaging a whopping 8 yards per carry. Their duel threat QB, Anthony Colandrea, has been a great fit for Mullen’s system. Air Force ran the ball all over both teams, racking up 269 yards vs Boise and 428 vs UNLV. Boise 45-34.

Ohio -11.5 -105

• Posted on Tuesday’s recap. Ohio had a bye week last weekend to allow that Ball State upset loss to sting a little extra. The Bobcats lost outright as 14 point favorites. I like for them to rebound here. NIU’s offense is terrible as they have yet to eclipse 20 points in a game this season. They have a solid defense and will want to make this game as ugly as possible. Miami (OH) QB, Dequan Finn, found success with his legs against this Husky defense. Ohio QB Parker Navarro is a lethal rushing threat. Waiting to see if a 10 comes available isn’t a bad idea. Ohio 27-10.

Old Dominion ML +100

• A huge matchup in the Sun Belt this weekend between the two best teams in the conference. I had this spot circled for ODU before last week’s let down. JMU’s defense is great, but I really like this ODU offense. QB Colten Joseph will be the best player on the field. ODU has been plagued by turnovers. They fumbled the ball 4 times (lost 3) and tossed two INTs against Marshall. They have recorded a lost fumble in every game this season besides week 1 against Indiana. I do believe that is something that can be addressed and was likely drilled throughout the week in preparation for this JMU defense. JMU’s offense has hit a wall the last two weeks. They have settled with QB Alonza Barnett. The last two weeks have been ugly as JMU only managed 24 points scored against ULL and 14 against Georgia State. ODU needs to sell out to stop the run here. I do not think JMU can take advantage in the passing game. ODU earns a huge bounce back win after last week’s wake up call. 24-20.

North Texas -4 -108

• UTSA found their offense last weekend, scoring 61 points. However, Rice starting QB went down early and it was a disaster afterwards. UTSA’s offense ranks 78th in EPA/Pass & 31st in EPA/Rush but near the bottom in the country in success rate for both. If UNT can slow down RB Robert Henry similar to how Temple did, they should find a few stops. This is a good bounce back matchup for North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker after tossing 3 INTs against South Florida. UTSA’s defense has struggled against the pass, ranking 105th in EPA/Pass. Texas State hit deep multiple times in week 2. I will back the Mean Green off a tough loss with an extra day of rest. UNT 38-28.

Clemson -8.5 -110

• Clemson QB Cade Klubnik is listed as probable with an ankle injury. Something to monitor but I expect him to play. Clemson has taken their foot of the gas the last two games. Against UNC, the Tigers had a 35-3 lead before ending 38-10. Last week against BC, they had a 34-10 lead at half before ending 41-10. UNC & BC are not good football teams, but it was encouraging to see Cade and the offense hang a large number in the 1st half. Dabo needs to feed the home crowd a good performance here as they are 1-3 in his last 4 home games and the one win was a struggle against Troy in week 2. SMU has won 19 consecutive regular season conference games. The Mustangs have been overrated by the market this season, as they finally covered their first spread of the season last weekend against Stanford. TCU’s Josh Hoover and Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson torched this secondary through the air. Outside of those, SMU has faced minimal passing threat in East Texas A&M, Missouri State, Syracuse (no Angeli), and Stanford. Clemson stays hot 34-20.
• Update: Reports are saying that Clemson has concerns on Klubnik’s availability for Saturday. I already have it locked, but I would wait and see what happens here.
• Update: Line dropped to -5.5. Doesn’t look like he’s playing.

Ole Miss +14.5 / Georgia ML +138

• I bet this on FanDuel. You can use a boost to get better odds, but I will list the price without the boost. I almost bet Georgia -6.5 on Sunday as I think this is a spot to sell Ole Miss. Sleep walking through the Washington State game post-bye week was not a good sign, but they were likely looking ahead to this matchup. The Rebels defense ranks 122nd in EPA/rush, which could be a concern on the road in Athens. This will also be QB Trinidad Chambliss first road start. Georgia has been a tale of two halves. They have been the best 2nd half team in the country. Kirby does a great job of making adjustments at the break and executing. Georgia’s defense ranks 84th EPA/Pass and struggles to generate a pass rush. Ole Miss offense ranks 23rd EPA/Pass. I believe Chambliss can toss it around to keep up. UGA 31-24.

Mississippi State +10 -120

• Paid for the half point. Reports around Gainesville have this being Napier’s last game. Florida has the bye week next, so it’s likely coming. I honestly thought this was too large of a number even before the news. The Gators may come ready to play, but they appeared checked out in the 2H against A&M. Florida also had 6 guys pop up as questionable on the injury report, a few being key defensive players. Mississippi State offense ranks 14th in EPA/Rush and 2nd in rushing success rate. They will need to find success without starting RB Fluff Bothwell, but Davon Booth has received a fair share of carries. State has allowed 9 sacks in 2 SEC games (against two teams that really get after the QB); however, Florida has only recorded 2 total sacks outside of the Texas game (6). I thought State played well against Tennessee and a a solid 3 quarters vs A&M. They put the dagger in the Napier era in Gainesville, 24-20.

Louisiana +4 -110

• The Ragin Cajuns have shown improve over the last two games. I was kicking myself for not taking that huge spread last weekend against JMU. The Southern Miss defense ranks 13th in EPA/Pass and 136th in EPA/rush. Louisiana offense ranks 23rd in EPA/Rush & 134th in EPA/Pass. This will be the back end of b2b road games for USM. If ULL continues their play from the past two weeks, I believe they can pull it off. ULL 31-30.

Oregon -14.5 -115

• Hit on Sunday but I would play this up to 17. I like the Ducks to bounce back here against a Rutgers defense with severe issues. Indiana showed a good blueprint on how to slow Dante Moore, but the Rutgers defense ranks 132nd in EPA/Pass and 97th in EPA/Rush. Yes, the Ducks will be traveling across the country, but it’s not an early kick and I am confident Lanning will have the prepared to bounce back. Oregon 45-24.

Georgia Southern -6.5 -110

• This is a good opportunity for Southern to shake the rough start to the season. Georgia Southern has the more functional offense and the home-field advantage. While their defense is not good, Georgia State’s offense has multiple, flaws in penalties and Red Zone offense that will likely prevent them from keeping pace with the Eagles. Southern’s offense ranks 32nd in EPA/Rush and 30th in success rate. States defense sits at 132nd in EPA/rush. Georgia Southern’s rushing defense has been terrible (130th in EPA/rush) but it is somewhat mitigated by Georgia State’s weak rushing attack (122nd EPA/rush). I would also lean over as we may be in for a shootout here. Southern 41-28

Maryland +3.5 -115

• UCLA has been a totally different team the last two weeks, but I believe this is a good spot to sell high as they are a FG favorite over Maryland. The Terps have suffered b2b crushing home losses in the 4th quarter. They were up on Washington 20-3 and Nebraska 31-24 after 3 quarters of play before going silent in the 4th. Maryland’s defense ranks 18th in EPA vs Pass and Rush. They rank 9th in success rate against the rush, which could be huge against UCLA. QB Malik Washington has eclipsed 200+ passing in every game and has done a great job of taking care of the football. The Bruins have turned it around with b2b wins against Penn State and Michigan State. As we know, Penn State lost to Northwestern the following week. Also, Michigan State’s starting QB Aidan Chiles left the game with a leg injury and did not return. I am glad to see Nico finding success. Maryland HC Mike Locksley still believes in his team after the two crushing losses. He is a good coach that will have his team ready to go despite the across the country travel. I think the Terps win this outright, 27-24.

Tennessee / Alabama o58.5 -110

• I was waiting to see if a 57.5 ever came available, but I don’t think it will happen. Who doesn’t love the third Saturday of October matchup between the Vols and Tide? The last 3 matchups have been electric. I see a window for both offenses to find success in this game. Alabama’s defense has struggled with explosive runs, as they rank 74th in EPA/rush. Tennessee is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. In last week’s game against Mizzou, I thought the Tigers found success through the air with tempo as Bama was keyed in on stopping RB Ahmed Hardy (They shut him down). We know Tennessee’s offense will bring the tempo and pressure. Joey Aguilar’s preseason concern was interceptions; however, I believe he has done a good job only throwing 5 and some of them were not his fault. You have to take care of the ball if you expect to win this game. The Vols have 3 fast, dynamic WRs in Brazzell, Staley, and Matthews. According to Vols insider, Jordan Moore, Heupel has all but abandoned the Veer & Shoot offense against P4 opponents. It has been modified and upgraded. On the other side of the ball, I do not see Tennessee stopping Alabama’s WRs. The Vols rely on pressure and turnovers on defense. It is an aggressive approach, but it leaves massive holes whenever it isn’t working. They forced two turnovers against Arkansas, but TN’s offense failed to capitalize. Vols CB room has been banged up all season with McCoy and Gibson out. Bernard, Williams, and Horton will be open. They may be able to get pressure early against this Bama OLine, but it should be a quick, easy fix for Bama OC Ryan Grubb. Stats show that teams have adjusted to Tennessee’s defense well as the game progresses. RB Jam Miller is listed as probable which is huge as he is a big part of their pass protection. QB Ty Simpson has taken himself from hated week 1 to Heisman favorite and projected #1 overall pick. I will say the Vols are due for some positive regression on 3rd down, but I’m not sure this is the week. If Tennessee cannot get pressure on Simpson, I am confident Alabama will hang a large number. My cigar is ready, but I have a feeling I will not be smoking it. Bama 38-31.

Auburn ML +105

• Auburn is due. They have lost 3 straight conference games in very close fashion. Hugh Freeze is on the hot seat and desperately needs this game. We are headed into week 8 and Missouri has yet to play a road game this season. Auburn is very good at stopping the run, ranking 1st in EPA/Rush. They will need it against Missouri’s RB, Ahmad Hardy. Alabama gave them a blueprint. Auburn’s offense runs the ball well, but struggles against the pass. Missouri QB Beau Pribula has thrown 5 INTs in their last 4 games and as I said earlier this will be his first road trip. Auburn ends in the right side of a close game here, 23-20.

Utah -3 -115

• Winning at BYU is always a tough task, especially under the lights in a rivalry game but I believe Utah is just the better team. BYU had a 2OT win at Arizona last weekend after failing to cover the previous two games against Colorado and West Virginia. Utah has been rolling since their blowout loss to Texas Tech. Devon Dampier has been playing great, accounting for 8 TDs over the last two games. He had his best rushing game of the season last week, racking up 120 yards and 3 TDs on 10 attempts. Utah dominates in the trenches. Utes 31-20.

New Mexico -10 -110

• Posted on Tuesday’s recap. New Mexico returns home after b2b road losses to San Jose State and Boise. Nevada has scored 20 points once this season and that was against Sac State. New Mexico has played the stronger SOS and scored 25+ points in every game besides one (week 1 vs Michigan). San Diego State had their way against Nevada last weekend, averaging over 14 yards per completion. New Mexico 31-17.

Full Card

Other Games / Leans

I liked Washington +6 originally. My numbers have this being a much closer game. However, I decided to stay away due to the early start time in the Big House. The Huskies have only had to leave the state of Washington once and that was against Maryland, a game they started very slow. Michigan is a good rush defense, but they have had trouble with QBs that can move around. The line dropped to Michigan -4.5, so I bet RB Justice Haynes will not go.

Lean: Washington.

After last weekend, I circled South Carolina but I am going to stay away. John Mateer did not look good vs Texas. SC is getting healthier on defense. Beamer is 3-3 vs ranked teams at home despite being an underdog in all but one. South Carolina fired their O-line coach after the LSU game. Oklahoma’s defensive line should feast in this matchup. Can Oklahoma score enough? It may not take much.

Lean: U43.5 & SC +5.5.

Florida Atlantic found their groove last week. This total sits at 72.5, but I still believe it sails over. These two teams play at the fastest tempos in the country. Alex Golesh vs Zach Kittley will have fireworks. USF has scored 63, 54, and 63 in their last 3 games. I expect them to continue that streak here. FAU will pass from behind. If the total drops another point or two on Saturday, I will probably take it. USF 51-27.

Lean: o72.5 & FAU +21.5

Looks like some rainy weather for Notre Dame and USC. The Trojans have failed to cover a spread on the road this season. ND has found something defensively, which is why this spread is so large. Without the weather, I would lean USC and over but no play from me.