Hello everyone, welcome back.

Week 8: 12-11 (+0.38u)

YTD headed into Week 9: 102-73-2 (+24.36u)

I apologize for being a day behind schedule. I was waiting on a few spots.

I have checked the weather, but it could change. I am headed to Dallas for the weekend but will still update with thoughts if lines begin to move.

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Tuesday – October 21st

FIU +2 -110 ❌

0.25u: FIU ML +130 ❌

Saturday – October 25th

Rutgers ML -125

• Purdue’s QB Ryan Browne went down against Northwestern with a shoulder injury and will likely be out on Saturday. The Rutgers defense is terrible, ranking near the bottom in nearly all advanced stats. With Purdue having QB concerns, the game plan should be to load up the box and make the backup beat you through the air. Rutgers has had a bad draw with their last two matchups, traveling to Washington and catching Oregon after a loss. This is an opportunity to buy low against a Purdue defense that ranks 128th in EPA/Pass. Without Browne, I’m not sure Purdue can keep up. Rutgers 31-27.
• Update: Purdue has received a small boost on the market. Browne’s status is still in the air.
• Saturday morning update: Browne is surprisingly starting at QB. Line has crossed over to -1.5 Purdue.

Ohio -11.5 -110

• Ohio bounced back last week after an embarrassing loss a few weeks ago to Ball State. They had an extra week to prepare, and managed to hang 538 yards of total offense against a decent NIU defense. Ohio is 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. However, I think this is a good opportunity to figure out their road woes. EMU’s defense ranks 131st in EPA/rush, 120th in EPA/Pass and 117th in defense success and will struggle to slow down QB Parker Navarro. The EMU offense is a much better unit with QB Noah Kim leading the MAC in passing. I would lean over, but believe Ohio comes up with enough stops to get the job done. 45-31 Ohio.

SMU -3 -110

• SMU dominated Clemson last week (Clemson was without Klubnik) and will hit the road once again to take on a sneaky solid Wake Forest team. QB Kevin Jennings continued his strong play despite battling an illness. I would like to see him cut down on the interceptions as he has thrown one in every game besides Stanford. Wake’s defense grades out well, especially against the pass but they have yet to face a passing QB as good as Jennings. Wake’s offense runs through RB Demond Claiborne and QB Robby Ashford on the ground, but SMU’s defense is good at stopping the run (9th in EPA/Rush, 26th in success). According to ESPN, Wake’s SOS ranks 109th. Wake’s non-conference opponents have been Kennesaw State, Western Carolina, and Oregon State. They are getting love here for jumping on Georgia Tech early before blowing a 20 point lead in the 2nd half. I do worry that Wake comes out well-prepared off the bye week, but I believe SMU is the better team here. Ponies 31-20.
• Saturday morning update: SMU will be without two key defensive players. Wake is staring backup QB Deshawn Purdie as Ashford continues to make his way back. We have a good number, but recipe for disaster, imo.

Northwestern / Nebraska o43.5 -110

• Nebraska struggles at stopping the run and Northwestern moves the football through their rushing attack. Wildcats rank 52nd in EPA/rush and 46th in success rate while the Nebraska defense ranks 103rd in EPA/rush. I expect Nebraska’s offense to have a bounce back performance after a poor showing last Friday in Minnesota. Prior to the Minnesota matchup, Nebraska had posted 27+ points in every game besides week 1. They are 5-2 to the over this season and this is a very low number. Huskers bounce back 31-17

Ole Miss / Oklahoma u54.5 -110

• OU’s defense is elite, ranking 1st in EPA/Pass, Early Down EPA, and 3/4th down success. They generate a ton of havoc, something that will come in handy against this high-powered Ole Miss offense. This is OU’s highest total since week one, but the Sooners are 7-0 to the under this season. My concern with OU is that they have yet to play a good offense: Illinois State, Michigan, Temple, Auburn, Kent State, Texas, & SC. Ole Miss defense has had issues, ranking 125tg in EPA Rush; however, I do not think OU is the offense to exploit their problems. Oklahoma’s offense ranks 102nd in EPA/rush and 68th in EPA/Pass. The Rebels have been solid at defending the pass, ranking 47th in EPA/Pass and 37th in success. I expect OU’s defense to limit the explosiveness of the Ole Miss offense. Trinidad Chambliss has been phenomenal. He has done a great taken care of the football, but Georgia slowed him down in the 4th quarter. B2B road games for Ole Miss and OU will generate pressure. Mateer does enough. OU 24-20.

Auburn +3.5 -120

• I completely understand if you do not trust Auburn here. They have found new ways to lose each week. However as it stands right now, there will be steady rain with wind gusts up to 20mph. Arkansas has one of the best offensive lines and rushing attacks in the country. However, Auburn defense excels at stopping the run, ranking #1 in EPA/Rush. They limited Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy to 58 yards on 24 carries last week. The Tigers will have to find a way to contain QB Taylen Green, something teams have struggled to do. On the other side, the Arkansas defense has failed to stop anyone (130th in EPA/Rush, 126th in EPA/Pass, and 129th in defensive success). Auburn has failed to score 20+ points in a SEC game, but they have faced 4 very stout defenses (Oklahoma, A&M, Georgia, Missouri). Auburn has found success on the ground with their EPA/Rush ranking 21st. RB Jeremiah Cobb and QB Jackson Arnold can make plays with their legs. Auburn has been working in other QBs this week in practice, but I think they will stay with Arnold here. With the weather playing a factor, I believe the passing games will be affected. I give that a boost Auburn and downgrade to Arkansas. Auburn and Hugh Freeze finally get a SEC win, 27-24.
• Update: Arkansas DL Cameron Bell is out. That is a big blow for an already banged up defensive line.

UConn -9.5 -115

• Rice QB Chase Jenkins left the UTSA game early with a lower leg injury and did not return. After that moment, Rice found little offense. They played 4 different QBs and had 11 different players record rushing attempts. UConn has played well the last two weeks. Their offense ranks 9th in EPA/Pass and 41st in EPA/Rush. The Huskies do a great job of generating pressure, ranking 4th in sack percentage. I do have concerns about their defense against the run, but they should be able to stack the box with the Rice’s QB questions. UConn 38-17.

NC State / Pittsburgh o53.5 -115

• Pitt’s defense grades out well, especially against the run, but mainly due to performances against Duquesne, Central Michigan, Boston College and Syracuse. FSU, Louisville, and West Virginia all managed 30+ points. I believe CJ Bailey and NC State can find success through the air against a Pitt defense ranking 59th in EPA/Pass. On the other side, Pitt QB Mason Heintschel had b2b 300+ passing games before slowing down last week in a win Syracuse. RB Desmond Reid played in limited capacity last week, but they didn’t really need him. Both teams are banged up. NC State will be without a few offensive linemen, which could be a concern against Pitt’s front. Pittsburgh is thin at linebacker with 2 guys listed as questionable. This game may start slow and pick up late with both teams moving towards airing it out. I honestly believe NC State has a chance to pull off the upset here post bye-week. 33-27 NC State.

FAU / Navy o62.5 -110

• Navy’s offense has been great. They have recorded 32+ points in 5 games and sit at 5-1 to the over this season. They rank 3rd nationally in EPA/Pass & EPA/Rush. FAU defense has allowed 33+ points in 5/7 games this season. They rank 111th in EPA/rush and the only two offense that did not put up a big number against them were Rice and Florida A&M. The Owl’s offense operates at the fastest pace in the country. If the game script goes as planned, they should have success passing from behind against a Navy defense that ranks 118th in EPA/Pass. Navy continues to roll, 41-34

Iowa State -2.5 -115

• I do not love Iowa State, but this is a tough spot for BYU. They are hitting the road after a huge home win against Utah. The Cougars were out gained by 100 yards, but held Utah to a 1-5 4th down conversion rate. BYU has narrowly escaped their 2 Big 12 road games against Colorado and Arizona. Iowa State had a bye week to regroup after b2b road losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. The Cougars have a good team and may find success on the ground here, but I trust Matt Campbell to have a game plan. Iowa State has already had a bye week. It was after a terrible showing against Arkansas State. In the game post-bye, they dominated Arizona 39-14. ISU has played much better at home than the road. Cyclones bounce back, 27-20.
• Update: Iowa State DL Domonique Orange is expected to play. Big boost for Iowa State’s defense.

Southern Miss -13.5 -105

• ULM has failed to cover three straight games and the market has been way off on the pregame line. They were +13 vs Northwesten (L 7-42), -3 against Coastal (L 23-8) and +4.5 against Troy (L 37-14). Now they will be without QB Aidon Armetta Projected starter, Landon Graves, has not completed more than 2 passes in a game this season. USM returns back home after b2b road wins against Georgia Southern and Louisiana. QB Braylon Braxton should continue his strong season against a ULM defense ranking 104th in EPA/Pass. USM 34-10.

Illinois / Washington o54 -108

• I like both offenses to find success in this game. Washington’s offense has looked good outside of the Ohio State and Michigan games. I mentioned in last week’s write up how the noon kick in the Big House was not a good matchup and we know OSU’s defense is just that good. QB Desmond Williams headlines an offense that ranks 14th in EPA/Pass, 5th in EPA/rush, and 7th in offensive success. Illinois defense ranks 109th in EPA/pass, 91st in EPA/rush, 90th in defensive success, and 112th in 3rd down success. They have allowed 39 PPG in their 4 Big Ten matchups (Indiana, USC, Purdue, Ohio State). Despite Washington being banged up on the offensive line, Illinois will struggle to contain Williams and Coleman. On the other side, The Illini has a bye week to prepare and should find success through the air. QB Luke Altemeyer is having a good season, averaging 260.1 YPG with a 13:1 TD/INT ratio. Illinois ranks 26th in EPA/Pass and 11th in passing success while the Husky defense ranks 82nd in EPA/Pass and 94th in success. Similar to Illinois, Washington defense has struggled defensively on 3rd down. This should be a solid matchup. Washington’s home loss to Ohio State snapped a 22 consecutive game home winning streak. This will likely come down to which defense can find a way to adjust and create a few stops. Washington 31-27.

Missouri +8.5 // LSU +8.5 -108

• Much better odds available on FD compared to other books. We crossed through the 3 & 7 here, two key numbers. I do not see either team getting blown out. Vanderbilt’s atmosphere will be rocking, but Drink will have them prepared. I am not sure Vandy can contain Ahmad Hardy like Auburn and Alabama did. Missouri 24-23.
• B2B SEC road trips for A&M with this one being in Death Valley at night. Nuss is looking better each week. I like the Tigers to keep it close. Texas A&M 27-24.

Baylor / Cincinnati o66.5 -110

• I usually avoid overs in the mid 60s, but I am having a tough time finding a way for this to stay under. Baylor has found themselves in a shootout in 5/7 games this season. Cincinnati’s offense has scored 34+ points in 5/7 this season. QB Brendon Sorsby leads a Cincy offense that ranks 4th in EPA/Pass, 25th in EPA/rush, and 9th in offensive success. Take away the Samford game and Baylor’s defense is allowing 35.5 PPG. On the other side, Baylor’s Sawyer Roberson leads the country in passing yards. Cincinnati was torched through the air by Rocco Becht (314/2/2) and Jalon Daniels (445/4). I believe we see a classic Big 12 shootout here. The Baylor/TCU game started slow last week before sailing over the total. We should see plenty of explosives as both teams rank top 25 in yards per play. Cincy 38-34.

Oklahoma State +36.5 -105

• 37.5’s available. Texas Tech will start QB Will Hammond, making it his second consecutive start. QB Behren Morton will be available but it is unlikely he will be needed. Oklahoma State is terrible, but this is a massive number for a conference game. Cowboy’s QB Zane Flores will return after missing the last two games. With Texas Tech banged up, starting a backup QB, and road trip to Kansas State on the schedule for next weekend, I just don’t see them wanting to run the score through the roof here. They have only score 50+ against Arkansas Pine Bluff and Kent State. OK State has averaged 18.4 PPG since Gundy’s firing. 14 should get us a cover. Tech 45-13

TCU -15 -110

• West Virginia is dead. In worse news, rushing QB Khalil Wilkins will be out leaving 3rd string Scotty Fox as the full-time QB. Wilkins had led the team in rushing attempts and yards the last two weeks. Fox is not a strong rushing threat. WVU has no passing game, ranking 134th in EPA/Pass. It’s a crazy stat, but they have yet to have a 100 yard passer since Nicco Marchiol decided to redshirt after week 4. TCU’s defense ranks 111th in EPA/Pass and 36th in EPA/Rush. WVU will need to perform a magic trick and find a way to have to find success through the air. Josh Hoover and TCU’s passing attack (24th in EPA/Pass) will have unstoppable against a Mountaineer defense allowing 236.7 passing yards per game (112th). UCF was hitting explosive play after explosive play last weekend. Yeah, Morgantown is a tough road trip but they have turned the page to basketball season. TCU 45-17.

Tennessee -8 -110

• Kentucky is seeing some love on the market after taking Texas to overtime last weekend. This will be b2b home games for the Wildcats while TN will be on the back side of b2b road trips. However, this Tennessee offense is much better than what Texas had to offer. Vols are averaging 511 yards per game, ranking 21st in EPA/Pass, 24th in EPA/Rush, and 8th in success rate. Kentucky’s defense ranks 62nd in EPA/Pass, 65th in EPA/Rush, and 72nd in success against the pass. On the other side, Tennessee’s defense has holes. They generate pressure but rank 115th in success rate and 116th in EPA/pass. Luckily for them, Kentucky struggles through the air (115th in EPA/Pass 100th in success). They simply cannot keep up. Stoops does a good job of preparing his teams for these big home games. Vols have the talent mismatch, but the lack of preparation kills me. I need to see a good bounce-back performance on the road. The fan base needs it after the Vitello news. Vols 31-17.
• Update: I forgot to mention in the original write up that Kentucky RB Seth McGowan is questionable. McGowan took a trip to the hospital mid game last weekend for a CT scan, but came back and played after the scans came back clear. He is Kentucky’s best offensive weapon, managing 100+ total yards in 3/4 SEC matchups. UK used him in the receiving game last week as he racked up 68 yards on 7 receptions.

• Tennessee LB Arion Carter was listed as questionable on the Wednesday night report. He leads the SEC in tackles.

SGP: Houston +14.5 // Arizona State ML +135

• Bet on FanDuel for best odds. We saw this middle hit last weekend with Ole Miss/Georgia ending 43-35. Arizona State is without WR Jordyn Tyson in this game and it will be a massive loss. To put it into perspective, Tyson has 57 receptions for 628 yards and 11 TDs this season. The rest of the WR room has only racked up 322 total yards together. The last WR to catch a TD pass for Arizona State was against Texas in last year’s playoff. They do not have a replacement on the outside, but I am not sure they will need it. State will have to run the ball effectively while heavily using RB and TE in the receiving game. Sam Leavitt is a good QB and Kenny Dilligham is a great coach. I believe they can adjust without their top weapon in the lineup. Houston’s rushing attack finally found success last week against Arizona. Willie Fritz has done a great job this season; however, The Cougars have played the weakest schedule in the Big 12. I would be surprised to see them walk into Tempe and win despite the Tyson injury. I don’t see either offense finding a ton of success. Arizona State should be able to do enough to win this game. I wouldn’t mind if you wanted to take Houston +7.5 or +10.5 with Arizona State ML as well. 24-20 Devils.

Few Leans:

Toledo ML

Kansas State +3.5

UNC +10.5

Utah -13.5

Memphis +5.5

Miami (OH) -1.5

Wake / SMU u54