Hello everyone, welcome back. After suffering the first negative week of the season in week 9, we are searching for a bounce back.

W9: 8-12 (-4.31u)

YTD: 110-85-2 (+20.05u)

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Tuesday – October 28th

0.5u: Texas State +7.5 -110 ❌

Friday – October 31st

North Carolina +2.5 -110 ✅

• Syracuse has yet to manage 20+ points in a game since losing Steve Angeli for the season. Since taking over the job, QB Rickie Collins has committed more turnovers than touchdowns. HC Fran Brown sounded like a change will be coming soon. On the other side, UNC has been improving. Their last two games have been close losses to California and Virginia. Gio Lopez had his best showing of the season last week. This will be an easier matchup against a Syracuse defense has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games. Bill & UNC finally get an ACC win. UNC 24-20.

Saturday – November 1st

Army / Air Force o48.5 -110

• Service academy overs? They are 4-1 in their last 5. Last week against Wyoming was the first time an Air Force total went under this season. Their rushing offense ranks 5th in EPA/rush and 4th in success rate. When they throw the ball, it’s usually an explosive play. Liam Szarka had 175+ yards passing in 4 straight games before flopping for only 33 yards against Wyoming. Air Force / Navy ended 34-31 with both teams dropping back 20+ times. If Air Force can drop back successfully, Army has struggled defending the pass. Army will try to slow the tempo down in this game with long drives, however I’m not sure Air Force’s defense can prevent the big runs. QB Cale Hellums, ran the ball 39 times for 155 yards against Tulane. 27-24 Army.

Texas ML -143 (1.25u to win 0.87u)

• Tough spot for Vandy. Texas should be able to stop the run and force Pavia into throwing situations. Arch is cleared and fresh off his best performance of the season. Texas defense shows up. 24-17 Horns.

Clemson / Duke o54.5 -105 (to win 0.5u)

• Clemson’s offense had started to find a groove before Klubnik got hurt. Vizzina even found success against SMU once they quit calling conservative and opened up the playbook. Duke’s defense ranks 96th in EPA/Pass & 116th in success against the pass. Clemson has found limited success once the ground this season, ranking 131st in EPA/Rush, but Duke’s runs a pass funnel defense. Darian Mensah and Duke’s passing attack should also be set up to score. Clemson has faced limited threats through the air, but Syracuse & SMU managed to score into the mid-30s. Mensah is averaging 306.4 passing yards per game, which is 6th in the country. My models have this going under, which is why I only played 0.5u. With both teams working heavily through the air, I believe this game has potential for a shootout. Clemson 34-31.

Arizona State / Iowa State u49 -110

• 50.5 available. Arizona State’s offense runs through Sam Leavitt to Jordyn Tyson. Both will be out for this road matchup against an Iowa State team that collapsed in the 2nd half last week. The Cyclones had their best defender, Dom Orange, return last week. Arizona State will want to keep this at a slow pace, low scoring matchup. Their defense has been solid, only allowing 30+ points in one matchup this season (and they have played some pretty good offenses). 27-17 Iowa State.

Rutgers / Illinois o61.5 -113

• I just have a tough time finding a way either defense finds success in this matchup. Rutgers ranks 132nd in EPA/Pass, 123rd in EPA/Rush and 134th in defensive success. Illinois ranks 124th in EPA/Pass, 86th in EPA/rush, and 110th in success rate. On the other side, Rutgers ranks 43rd in EPA/Pass, 20th in EPA rush, and 26th in offensive success. Illinois ranks 20th in EPA/Pass, 115th in EPA/rush, and 20th in success rate. 42-27 Illinois.

Temple +5.5 -110

• Temple returns home after surviving a “trap spot” against Tulsa last weekend. East Carolina will hit the road post bye week. Their last game was a Thursday night winner on 10/16. Running the ball against ECU is a tough task, but that will not be Temple’s game plan. QB Evan Simon has yet to throw an interception this season and is fresh off a 5 passing TD performance. Can Temple slow up Katin Houser passing attack? Houser has had 250+ passing in every game but one. Tenple’s defense has been better against the pass, ranking 57th in EPA/Pass & 21st in success rate. I’ll take the points with a hot team at home. Temple 31-27.

Virginia Tech +11 -110

• Louisville has been playing well, but I believe this is a tricky spot. Yes, they beat Miami on the road but Beck tossed 4 interceptions. Boston College was only down 7 in the 4th quarter last week. Louisville’s offensive line is not very good and I believe VT can generate pressure, keeping this game close. On the other side, Louisville’s defense is a top unit, but Tech runs the ball well (10th in EPA/Rush, 3rd in success rate). Jeff Brohm’s name has been floating around in these searches. If Kyron Drones can take care of the football, I like Tech to keep this one close. Louisville 31-24.

Minnesota -3 -115

• Minnesota is 5-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Michigan State’s offense has been their better unit, but they will have a tough time against a Gopher’s defense only allowing 12.8 points per game at home. Spartans scored late last week to backdoor the spread at home against Michigan. Can Minnesota find success on offense? Michigan State’s defense is awful. Opposing Big Ten offenses are averaging 38 PPG. They rank 128th in EPA/Pass, 110th in EPA/Rush and 118th in defensive success rate. Gopher RB Darius Taylor has been battling injuries all season. He left the game early last week and will be a status to monitor leading up kickoff. Johnathan Smith needs it, but I just don’t see MSU pulling off a road win. Minnesota’s defense comes through, 24-17.

Boise State -17 -110

• Fresno has QB problems. Carson Conklin earned the start last week but found minimal success. He only had 182 passing yards on 42 drop backs and San Diego State’s defense pitched a shutout. Now he will attempt his first road start at Boise State in a sold out crowd. Boise has been on a roll since their week 1 loss against South Florida, covering the spread (closing number) in every game. Fresno may be able to keep up in the trenches, but Boise should have success through the air. 33-13

Georgia -7 -115

• Can Florida find success passing the ball? Georgia has been much better against the run compared to the pass. Florida ranks 114th in EPA/Pass. On the other side, Gunner Stockton has been great when kept clean and Florida has struggled to generate pressure all season. Georgia should be able to move the ball. New coach but I am not confident enough in Florida’s offense to keep up. Georgia will also be coming off their bye week. Dawgs 34-21.

SGP: Texas Tech ML // Kansas State +14.5 +133

To win 1u

• Going for the middle in this game. I leaned Texas Tech -7 early in the week, but Kansas State has played well as of late. Avery Johnson will need to make plays, as Tech’s defense is elite against the run. Texas Tech 31-20.

California +6 -110

• UVA with a west coast road trip after barely surviving the last two weeks against Washington State and North Carolina. California lost an overtime thriller last week at Virginia Tech. They have been much better at home this season. Cal pulls off the upset 27-24.

Oklahoma State / Kansas o54.5 -110

• OK State has allowed 43.2 PPG in conference games this season. Jalon Daniels and the Kansas offense should be able to score at will. OK State will get a small boost on offense with QB Zane Flores returning. It will not fix the offense, but he did lead them to a season-high, 27 points, against Baylor. Kansas 45-17.

San Diego State -10 -110

• San Diego’s defense is legit, ranking 1st in the conference in multiple categories. In their 6 wins, San Diego State is only allowing 6.2 PPG and has produced 3 shutouts. Wyoming’s defense has also been a solid unit, but this is a tough spot. 27-14 SDSU.

Auburn -9.5 -115 (Sunday release)

• We finally saw Auburn make the change at QB and it paid off as they came from behind in the 2nd half to beat Arkansas. Jackson Arnold holds onto the ball too long. Kentucky is severely banged up on both sides of the ball. QB Cutter Boley found success last week, but Auburn’s defense is better than Tennessee’s. This is only Kentucky’s 3rd road game. They lost and failed to cover against both South Carolina and Georgia. Auburn should be able to push around a depleted Kentucky team. Tigers 31-14.

Washington State -3.5 -110

• I was going to buy this down to -3 but the books have it ridiculously priced. This is a tale of two different teams. Wazzu had two close losses on the road to Ole Miss & Nevada before beating a solid Toledo team at home last week. Oregon State finally earned their first win of the season after firing their head coach. They beat Lafayette 45-13; however, Lafayette had a 13-10 halftime lead. Oregon State has QB issues. They will try running the ball but Washington State should have a big advantage in the trenches. Wash St 27-13.

USC / Nebraska o57 -113 (Sunday Release)

• Nebraska is 6-2 to the over this season. USC has failed to go over their last two games, but that was against much better defenses in Notre Dame & Michigan. Nebraska has caught some steam due to Lincoln Riley teams failing to find success on the road. The Cornhuskes have struggled at stopping the run, which ranks 105th in EPA & 108th in success. USC has also struggled at stopping the run, which ranks 108th in EPA and 133rd in success rate. After playing Minnesota and Purdue, Nebraska’s offense will have a chance to pick up the tempo this week. Atmosphere will be rocking. Nebraska 34-27.

Utah -6.5 -115 (Sunday Release)

• I honestly did not expect the line to jump like it did. I believe it’s due Utah’s dominance in these night games at home and Cincinnati’s lack of quality road games. The Bearcats have blown expectations out of the water. QB Brandon Soresby has been great. However, this will be their first big road test to date as their other two road opponents were Kansas and Oklahoma State. Utah loves to lock up in man coverage, so Soresby’s legs will be needed if Cincinnati hopes to keep this close. Cincinnati’s defense ranks 82nd in EPA/rush, 89th in EPA/Pass, and 92nd in defensive success rate. Utah’s QB, Devon Dampier, is supposed to be back this week (according to Utah’s injury reports, but we know how that goes) after sitting last week. Utah has played 3 night games at home this season: 63-9 vs Cal Poly, 42-10 vs Arizona State, and 53-7 vs Colorado. I also believe the Texas Tech game would have been different if the kick were under the lights instead of noon EST. Tough spot for Cincy. Utah 41-24.

Small Leans:

Tennessee ML (I may play right before kick)

North Texas -6.5

Stanford +14.5

SMU +10.5

Georgia Tech / NC state o58.5