Betting Recap

Week 12: 13-8 (+3.39u)

YTD: 143-109-3 (+25.94u)

Spreadsheet link: College Football Spreadsheet

Another solid week. Let’s keep it rolling.

• Clemson & FIU with outright wins. Iowa & Arkansas had their chances, but cover the spread.

• The A&M spread addition Saturday morning was not the move.
• The Irish dominated.
• Alabama / OU started out hot, but stalled out in the 4th quarter.
• Tennessee gets a pick 6 and still managed to miss the team total. Zero 4th quarter points (They did the same thing against UAB). Aguilar tossed 2 INTs and the Vols l managed their 2nd fewest total yards of the season.
• Fade me every time I back Duke.
• Washington dominated in every aspect despite the injuries.

Updated Future Bets

North Texas is currently -110 to make the playoff. With South Florida’s loss to Navy, North Texas is now projected to play Tulane in the American Championship Game.

Marcel Reed almost killed my chances with that first half, but luckily he decided to wake up for the 2nd half. Reed finished with 439 passing yards with 3 passing touchdowns during the comeback. He now sits at +550 to win the Heisman, officially entering the race with Mendoza (-105) and Sayin (+170).

Fingers crossed…

Week 12 Notes:

An impressive 2nd half come-back from Texas A&M after being down 30-3 at halftime. The first half was one of the ugliest halves of football I have seen this season. With zero room for error in the 2nd half, the Aggies dominated. Marcel Reed

Notre Dame is playing some good football. I know the schedule is weak, but they look better than they did earlier in the season. The defense has came together.

Navy shocks South Florida and ruins the Bulls playoff chances. 39 total points in the 4th quarter. What a game.

LSU’s defensive settled in after the 1st quarter, holding Arkansas to their lowest yardage total this season.

UVA picks up a nice road win at Duke. Duke’s QB, Darian Mensah, was held to his lowest passing total this season. Virginia makes the ACC championship game with a win against Virginia Tech.

Georgia Tech survives disaster at Boston College. Jackets needed a last second FG to win 36-34. Georgia Tech makes the ACC championship game with a home win against Pittsburgh.

Oklahoma finds a way to win at Alabama despite being out-gained offensively by over 200 yards. Mateer was held to his lowest passing total of the season. OU’s defense is an elite unit, forcing 3 turnovers with one being a pick 6. The Sooners will lock up a playoff spot with home wins over Missouri and LSU and the Iron Bowl now becomes a must win for Alabama.

North Texas sits in the driver’s seat to win the American conference. East Carolina, Navy, and Tulane all still have a chance.

Ole Miss scores two 4th quarter TDs to avoid disaster against Florida. Now we await on the Kiffin news. Rebels have a bye week this weekend before the Egg Bowl. The university wants an extension done during the bye. If it does not get done, Kiffin may not coach Ole Miss in the playoffs. Modern CFB.

According to DraftKings, Utah (+260) has a better chance than BYU (+270) to reach the CFB playoff. With a BYU loss to Cincy, madness could follow for the 2nd spot in the B12 title game. It could potentially create a 4 way tie, which leaves the door open for Utah.

CFB Playoff Projection

Projections for tonight’s release. Obviously there is a lot to happen. It’s tough to predict weeks out, but….

2/3 of North Texas, James Madison, and ACC champion will make it. Tulane has somewhat of a chance.

Alabama is in the SEC championship game with a win over Auburn. The Tide will likely have a first round bye if they win the SEC title.

If Texas beats Texas A&M, the SEC championship game will be Alabama vs Georgia.

Oregon still has USC and @ Washington. The Ducks could either jump or fall.

BYU and Utah will be the next two teams, followed by USC, Vandy, and Miami.

Oklahoma still has win out at home against Missouri and LSU.

I don’t see Texas getting in, even if they find a way to beat A&M.

The ideal playoff would have been:

Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Texas Tech, ND, Miami with BYU/Utah/Vandy/USC fighting for the last 2 spots.