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Week 12 Recap: CFB Week 12 Recap

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Let’s have a weekend.

Tuesday – November 18th

Ohio -29.5 -115 ❌

• Market moved in our favor, but Ohio won by 28.

Friday – November 21st

NC State +6.5 -105 ✅

• FSU is 0-3 on the road this season with losses to Virginia, Stanford, and Clemson. FSU out-gained their opponent in total yardage, but still managed to find ways to lose. The Seminoles rank 13th in EPA/Rush and 9th in rushing yards per game, but NC State’s defense is solid against the run (59th EPA/rush, 8th in success rate). NC State needs to focus on FSU WR, Duce Robinson, who has recorded 120+ yards in the last 3 games.
• The Pack are 4-1 at home, including a 48-36 win over Georgia Tech. CJ Bailey & NC State’s passing game (19th EPA/Pass, 38th in success, 30th in yards per game) could find success against FSU’s pass defense. After backing FSU last weekend, I will fade them on the road until they have proven to figure it out. NC State 31-30.

Saturday – November 22nd

Miami -16.5 -110 ✅

• I would lay this up to -20. Miami wants the style points for any attempt to impress the CFB Playoff committee. Carson Beck should have a field day against a Va Tech defense ranking 133rd in EPA/Pass, 130th in defensive success, and 131st in late down success. If Miami can stop the run and build an early lead, Va Tech struggles to pass from behind. Miami 38-13

SMU -2.5 -114 ✅

• Louisville’s offense is built around their rushing success (30th in EPA/Rush). They will be without their best two RBs in Isaac Brown & Keyjuan Brown. Isaac leads the country in YPC by over a full yard (8.59). Duke Watson will likely start. He has 43 carries on the season, averaging 2.8 YPC. SMU’s defense sits at 4th in EPA/Rush and 11th in success rate against the run. Louisville will need to find success through the air, but rank 58th in yards per game, 101st in EPA/Pass, and 63rd in success rate. After dropping two consecutive games as a home favorite, I don’t see Louisville pulling off the road win. SMU is 4-1 at home this season with the only loss being in week 2 against Baylor. The Ponies are also coming off the bye week with hopes of playing in the ACC Championship game. Lean under. SMU 27-20.
• Update: Louisville is also without QB Miller Moss

Missouri +7.5 -112 ❌

• Oklahoma controls their own fate to the CFB playoff. I believe Missouri can keep up in the trenches. This game will be physical. Despite picking up two road wins against Tennessee and Alabama, OU was out-gained offensively by 100 yards in both games. They also had a defensive touchdown in both games. John Mateer has not thrown for 225+ yards since his return from injury. Running the ball against OU is a tough task, but Hardy has been on fire. He racked up 300 yards last weekend against Miss State. He also averaged 8.4 YPC against A&M’s elite defense the week before. If Beau Pribula returns, it opens up the passing game and adds another rushing threat to complement Hardy. With a total sitting around 42, this game is likely low scoring. I am not sold enough on OU to be a 2 possession favorite over a solid Missouri team. I would play this down to 7. Oklahoma 23-17.

Baylor +7 -110 ❌

• The models love Baylor each week. It has not had good results, as the Bears sit 2-8 ATS this season. I will finally take the bait. Arizona is fresh off a huge road win against Cincinnati (Cincy was without Pryor) and could have the eyes looking ahead to the big Arizona State matchup next weekend. Baylor’s Sawyer Robinson’s leads the country in passing yards. Despite playing from behind, he tossed for 430 yards against Utah last weekend. Arizona grades out well against the pass. They have some talented DBs, but have somehow managed to avoid the best teams in the Big 12. Their SOS ranks only in front of Houston. Rocco Becht & Jalon Daniels found some success through the air. Dave Aranda received assurance Friday that he will keep his job for at least one more season. Baylor pulls off a much-needed win, 34-30.

South Florida -20.5 -110 ✅

• People may argue that USF has nothing to play for anymore, but I am not putting much into that. UAB has struggled against fast tempo offenses. Tennessee managed 56 in 3 quarters, FAU hung 53, and North Texas managed 53 last weekend. Byrum Brown has been impressive in every game and will be playing in his final games down the stretch. UAB’s defense ranks 128th in EPA/Pass, 104th in EPA/Rush, and 118th in success rate. USF hangs a big number bounces back 55-27

Florida Atlantic +7.5 -114 ✅

• UConn will be hitting the road for their final game of the season after completing a 3-0 run at home. It likely doesn’t matter, but they will be leaving 30 degree temps to playing in 80+ degrees. FAU has been playing better down the stretch, covering the spread in 5 of their last 6 games. They are also 3-1 ATS at home this season. This game will feature plenty of passing. FAU scores enough to keep it close, 38-34.

Louisiana Tech ML -105 ✅

• After a 4-1 start, LT has dropped 4 of their last 5. This is a good spot for them to become bowl eligible against a Liberty team that struggles on the road. Liberty will want to run the ball on offense. RB Evan Dickens is averaging 26 carries per game the last 3 weeks, but LT ranks 39th in EPA/Rush and 6th in success rate against the run. La Tech should be able to find enough success on the ground against Liberty’s defense that ranks 100th in EPA/Rush and 112th in success rate. LT 24-21

ECU / UTSA o62.5 -105 (Saturday Add) ✅

• UTSA has massive home/road splits. They have a 24 game conference win streak at the Alamodome. QB Owen McCown has been much better at home, averaging 267 YPG with 13 TDs and zero INTs. On the road, he has 7 TDs with 6 INTs and only 187 yards per game. ECU QB, Katin Houser, has been playing well. ECU’s offense is averaging 41.25 PPG across their last 4. They should be able to find success against UTSA’s defense that ranks 106th in EPA/Pass. All 4 UTSA home games from this season have sailed over the total. ECU 38-31

Kentucky / Vanderbilt u54.5 -110 ❌

• Too high of a number for two teams that operate at a slow pace. Vandy ranks 126th in seconds per play while Kentucky ranks 90th. Vandy struggle against the pass, but Kentucky will not exploit them through the air. Both defenses rank inside the top 40 in rushing yards allowed per game. Vandy has yet to find rushing success outside of Diego Pavia. Stoops will want to muddy this game up on the road. Vandy 27-17.

TCU +1.5 -110 ✅

• According to ESPN metrics, Houston has played the easiest SOS in the Big 12. Although the chances are small, the Cougars are still alive for the Big 12 championship game. Prior to the bye week Houston’s defense started to lose their legs a little, allowing 45 points to WVU & 27 to UCF. TCU failed to show up last week against BYU. They have been trending down for weeks and Sonny Dykes desperately needs this win. According to PFF, TCU blitzes at one of the highest rates in the country and Houston’s QB, Connor Weigman, struggles tremendously when pressured. Houston struggles to establish the run while TCU defense ranks 11th in EPA/Rush and 4th in success rate against the run. I expect TCU to bounce back here in a much better matchup. Frogs 27-24.

Kansas State / Utah o51.5 -110 ✅

• Since the BYU loss, Utah has averaged 51 PPG. The Utes have managed 42+ points in 7/10 games this season. Utah also ranks 2nd in the country in rushing yards per game, trailing only Navy. Kyle Wittingham wants as many style points as possible to impress the CFB playoff committee (it’s been working). Prior to last week’s dud against Oklahoma State, Kansas State games had sailed over the total in 5 consecutive games. Avery Johnson should be able to find some success with his legs against Utah’s man coverage. Utah 38-24.

Texas State -18.5 -110 ❌

• Texas State finally found something in a blowout road win against Southern Miss last weekend. ULM has struggled down the stretch and only averages 13.4 PPG on the road this season. Texas State has yet to deliver a conference win at home this season. Win out for a bowl game. This is a great matchup for the Bobcats. I would play this up to -20. 48-17.

Colorado State +17.5 -115 ❌

• I am not sure Boise should be favored by 3 possessions against anyone right now. They have only managed 2 scores without Maddux Madsen at QB. Backup QB, Max Cutforth, tossed for 104 & 106 yards against Fresno and San Diego State. Colorado State managed to force 5 fumbles last weekend against New Mexico State. 3rd string QB, Darius Curry, came in and tossed for 248 yards which is the highest total among CSU QBs this season. Boise wins, but too many points. 27-17.

Pittsburgh +2.5 -105 ✅

• You can wait to see if a 3 comes available, but I don’t think you will need it. Georgia Tech’s offensive identity is to run the football. Pitt’s defense ranks 6th in EPA/Rush and 3rd in success rate. Haynes King has been phenomenal this year and is a big reason for Tech’s success. Their EPA/Pass ranks 4th in the country and will be needed on Saturday night. Pitt loves to air it out, ranking 21st in passing yards per game. They will feature RB Desmond Reid (if he plays, currently questionable) as one of their top pass catchers. Georgia Tech’s defense has failed to stop anyone, ranking 121st in EPA/Pass, 110th in EPA/Rush, and 112th in success rate. They have allowed opponents to average 409.2 yards of total offense per game, ranking 106th. The last two matchups against NC State and Boston College have been especially bad. Brent Key challenged his defense to improve, but I am not sure it is fixable this late into the season. I feel like the Notre Dame game last week gave Pitt a good wake up call before their biggest game of the season. Pitt 34-31.
• Update: Desmond Reid is out.

Stanford +4 -110 ✅

• Despite a 3-7 record, Stanford owns a 3-1 record at home this season. Stanford isn’t very good, but I believe they can win in the trenches here on both sides of the ball. They can find some success on the ground against a Cal defense ranking 105th in EPA/rush and 92nd in success rate. Both teams are off the bye so I would also lean under. Stanford 24-21.

LSU -21.5 -110 ❌

• I know WKU is 8-2, but this is a massive step up in competition for the Hilltoppers. They have yet to play a single power 4 opponent. LSU’s offensive line has struggled but this is a great matchup for them to gain confidence. The rushing attack should find success against a WLU ranking near the bottom of the CUSA in rushing defense. Toledo, WKU’s bets opponent, ran for 307 yards in their matchup. Berry and Durham will get going early and Michael Van Buren should have plenty of time to hit on a few downfield opportunities. LSU 45-10

Cincinnati +3 -108 (Saturday Add) ❌

• The Bearcats should be able to establish the run against BYU’s defense. Cincinnati will also be getting two playmakers back for this game in RB Evan Pryor and WR Caleb Goodie. BYU has survived a few scares on the road this season. QB Bear Bachmeier has played well over the last month. Cincy’s defense will need to step up. They rank 96th in EPA/Pass, 102nd in EPA/Rush, and 111th in success rate. This should be a good game under the lights. I will take the 3 with Cincy. BYU 28-27

Utah State +3 -115 ✅

• I am not sold on Fresno State. The defense is one of the best in the MWC, but they have little to offer on offense. In their last two wins, Carson Conklin has managed 10/21 for 35 yards and 12/25 for 95 yards. Wyoming and Boise (without Madsen) do not have the same offensive power as Utah State. Before those two wins, Fresno was shutout by San Diego State, blown out by Colorado State, and barely escaped Nevada at home. The Aggies played well against the run against UNLV last weekend, but struggled against the pass. Fresno will not air it out. They need one win against Fresno or Boise to gain bowl eligibility. Utah State 24-20.

Other Games

USC @ Oregon

• USC has struggled on the road, but this game will stay on the west coast. USC’s offense is explosive but Oregon’s defense is elite at limiting explosive plays. Oregon is the better team on paper and needs this win to boost their resume. Ducks 34-20

Tennessee @ Florida

• The Vols haven’t won in the Swamp since 2003. Casey Clausen was under center in their last win. No matter what, something always goes wrong. The Gators are 4-0 ATS against TN since Josh Heupel has arrived. They honestly should have won in Neyland last year, but Billy…. Florida will get star DT Caleb Banks back after missing the last 7 games. I did not like how the Vols looked offensively last week against NMSU, but I’m not sure if Florida will be able to keep up with the WRs. Tennessee needs to snap this streak this year because Florida will not be featured on the schedule in 2026 or 2027. Vols 34-24.

5 favorite plays

• Texas State -18.5 ❌
• Kentucky / Vanderbilt u54.5 ❌
• Colorado State +17.5 ❌
• Pittsburgh +2.5 ✅
• Kansas State / Utah o51.5 ✅

Upset Moneyline Sprinkles

• Stanford +140 ✅
• NC State +190 ✅
• Baylor +200 ❌
• FAU +220 ❌