Welcome to Rivalry Weekend!

I was meaning to release this on Wednesday this week, but Thanksgiving plans said otherwise.

A terrible start to the week for me, but we still have a full Saturday left. Let’s have a day.

Follow me on Action: WRBets

YTD: 155-117-3 (+29.04)

Thursday – November 28th

Memphis -5.5 -110 ❌

Friday – November 29th

Ole Miss -7 -108 ✅

Utah -11.5 -110 ❌

SDSU ML -115 ❌

UGA + Ohio St + Oklahoma ML -123 (pending)

Texas A&M / Texas o52.5 -105 ❌

Arizona / Arizona St o47.5 -110 ❌

Saturday – November 30th

Miami -7 -108

• Miami needs all the style points possible. Dominating this game in similar fashion as Notre Dame did a few weeks back would help their case. Miami’s pass rush should provide plenty of pressure to on Pitt QB, Mason Heintshel. Georgia Tech recorded 6 sacks in their matchup last weekend. In that game, Pitt’s offense dominated in the first half, but found limited success in the 2nd half. Carson Beck and Miami’s passing game should be able to find success against this Pitt secondary if he can take care of the football. Can Miami show up in the cold weather? We shall see. Miami 27-17

Clemson / South Carolina o46.5 -105

• It’s unfortunate that neither of these teams lived up to the preseason hype. However, this is always a fun game to watch. LaNorris Sellers has played well in consecutive weeks. In those two games, SC has managed 30+ points in the first half. Nyck Harbor should return to give the passing game a slight boost. The offensive line had struggles early on, but they have also picked it up the last few weeks. SC has been solid against the run, but Clemson has had little rushing success this season. Their approach here should be to air it out in Klubnik’s final regular season game against a SC secondary ranking 88th in EPA/Pass. SC 27-24.

Missouri -2.5 -115

• Beau Pribula returned from injury last week in a tough matchup against Oklahoma. This should be a much better matchup. I’m not sure how Arkansas plans to stop Ahmad Hardy. The Hogs rank 106th in EPA/Rush and 131st in EPA/Pass. On the other side, Taylen Green is banged up after leaving early last week in the Texas game. KC Jackson came in and played well. Green was not on the injury report, but Arkansas has yet to name a starter. Arkansas ranks #1 in EPA/Rush, but Missouri’s defense is a solid unit that ranks 34th in EPA/Rush and 5th in success rate. Missouri’s defensive line is elite. Drink also inked in an extension this week. With the weather expected to be cold and rainy, I will back Missouri’s rushing attack and defensive line to come through. I would play this to -4. Mizzou 31-24.

Duke ML -112

• Warning: I have sucked when backing Duke this season. I said I was gonna few weeks ago, but here we are. I don’t believe Wake’s offense (110th EPA/Pass) can take advantage of Duke’s coverage struggles (125th EPA/Pass). Wake’s defense has been good this season, their three best passing opponents (GT, FSU, and NC State) all managed to hang 30 plus points. They also happen to be Wake’s only three losses. Darian Mensah and Duke’s offense ranks 17th in EPA/Pass. With Duke having a small chance at the ACC championship, I expect them to play well today. Duke 27-23.

Vanderbilt / Tennessee o65.5 -110

• I was hoping this total would open a slight lower as I hate playing overs in the mid-60s range. I see plenty of points in this game. Vanderbilt’s offense ranks 2nd in EPA/Pass and 10th in EPA/Rush. Tennessee’s defense relies on pressure and turnovers. If they fail, it gets ugly. Vols rank 94th in EPA/Pass and 118th in EPA/Rush. Pavia should have a field day. On the other side, Vanderbilt has struggled against the pass ranking 128th in EPA/Pass. I don’t see their coverage keeping up with TN’s WRs and downfield passing attack. It’s Senior day. Joey Aguilar will want to end his one year Neyland Stadium experience on a high note. I believe OU was TN’s first loss as a home favorite since Josh Heupel has arrived. Vols 44-38

Troy +7 -115

• Troy will travel to Southern Miss for a huge matchup with the winner finalizing a date in the Sun Belt Championship game against James Madison. Neither of these teams have looked great in recent weeks Troy’s QB, Goose Crowder, fully returned to action last week against Georgia State, finishing with 361 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. USM QB, Braylon Braxton, also returned from injury last week. He tossed for 400 yards with 3 touchdowns, but they were playing from behind the entire game. Both defenses are solid at defending the pass so this will likely come down to who finds more success on the ground. I believe Troy has the stronger trenches. Troy 27-24

Washington +7 -110

• Washington has looked great since suffering the upset loss to Wisconsin a few weeks back. They have been producing despite key injuries to RB Jonah Coleman and WR Denzel Boston. Both will be active for this game. Oregon’s rushing attack has been deadly; however, Washington’s defense ranks 16th in EPA/Rush and 25th in success rate. Oregon is also banged up on the offensive line. If Washington can slow down the rushing attack and find a way to disrupt Dante More, I believe they have a chance. Disrupting Moore is not easy, as the Ducks have some of the best pass protection in the county. I expect this to be a good game. Oregon’s road games this season: @ Northwestern, @ Penn State (win in OT), @ Rutgers, and @ Iowa (late win). Washington is much better at home, owning a 26-1 record in their last 27 home games. Oregon finds a way, 31-27

Cincinnati +4.5 -115

• I just don’t trust TCU. I backed them against Houston last week, but was very fortunate Houston missed a kick to tie it. TCU struggles to establish the run, ranking 129th in EPA/Rush. Josh Hoover has tossed 8 interceptions in his last 3 games. 31-27 Cincy missed opportunities last weekend against BYU. TCU has been solid at defending the run, but they should be able to move the ball through the air. Cincinnati sits at 8th in EPA/Pass & 7th in EPA/Rush while TCU’s defense is 7th in EPA/Rush but 76th in EPA/Pass. After dropping their last 3 games, I expect Cincy to come out prepared on the road. Play until it crosses the 3. Bearcats 30-27.

UTSA -6.5 -110

• UTSA is a machine at home. I do expect Army to play better than last week, but there is zero reason to fade the Roadrunners in the Alamodome. They are 25-0 in conference home games under HC Jeff Traylor. The home/road splits are pretty wild. I know it crossed a key number, but I believe this is still okay at -7.5. UTSA 31-20

Virginia Tech +10 -115

• Virginia Tech can success on the ground here against a UVA defense ranking 84th in EPA/Rush. The Hokies rank 4th in EPA/Rush. They feature two solid RBs in Hawkins and Stewart, but QB Kyron Drones is the team’s leading rusher. Virginia will need to force VT to throw the ball from behind. I would play this down to +7.5. UVA wins another close one, 27-24, and clinches a berth in the ACC championship.

Alabama / Auburn o46.5 -108

• Alabama can find success through the air (7th in EPA/Pass & 8th in success rate) against an Auburn defense that has struggled against the pass (110th in EPA/Pass & 116th in success rate). Alabama has to take care of the football. Ty Simpson has turned it over 5 times in their last 3 games, including 2 interceptions against Eastern Illinois. Ashton Daniels and Deuce Knight could give the Tide’s defense (39th in EPA/Rush) problems with their rushing abilities. 27-24 Alabama.

UNLV -7.5 -110

• Nevada has played inspired football the last few weeks, beating San Jose State and Wyoming as underdogs. However, this will be a step up in competition. Nevada’s defense ranks 74th in EPA/Rush, something you must do if you have any hopes of slowing down UNLV’s offense (6th EPA/Rush, 10th success rate). On the other side, I don’t believe Nevada had the offense to keep up. The Pack have no passing game (133rd in EPA/Pass) while also struggling to establish the run (101st EPA/Rush). You can buy the -7 if you want. UNLV stays hot 41-17

Fresno State -3 -109

• San Jose State’s season has fallen off the rails, losing 5 of their last 6 games. They have only managed 29 total points across their last 3 games. SJST failed to find the end zone against SDSU last week. Fresno’s offense is terrible, but their defense should be able to hold off a struggling San Jose offense. 23-17 Fresno.

Hawaii -7.5 -105

• Wyoming’s offense is dead. They have only scored once in their last 3 games. The Cowboys rank 124th in EPA/Pass and 89th in EPA/Rush. They will attempt to run the ball with success against Hawaii’s defense (38th in EPA/Pass, 125th in EPA/Rush). Hawaii has the much better offense. Hawaii is also 5-1 ATS and SU on the island this season. Lean Under. 23-7.

4 favorite plays

Miami -7

UTSA -6.5

Cincinnati +4.5

Fresno -3

Upset Moneyline Sprinkles

Washington +225

Cincinnati +145

Troy +200

Va Tech +300