Hello everyone, welcome back.

We have 4 first round playoff matchups schedule for this weekend.

#9 Alabama @ #8 Oklahoma (-1.5)

#10 Miami @ #7 Texas A&M (-3.5)

#11 Tulane @ #6 Ole Miss (-17.5)

#12 James Madison @ #5 Oregon (-20.5)

Last year, we saw home teams sweep (4-0) the first round.

Alabama vs Oklahoma

Winner advances to play #1 Indiana

• This will be Oklahoma’s first playoff appearance since 2019. In the first matchup, the Sooners went on the road and beat Alabama 24-20. Alabama outgained OU offensively 406-212, but turned the ball over 3 times. OU forced a pick 6 setting the tone early in the game, one being a pick 6 early in the game.

Alabama Offense vs Oklahoma Defense

• The biggest matchup in this game will be Ty Simpson against OU’s elite defense. Simpson is great when the offensive line gives him time. He has not been very good when pressured. In their first matchup, Venebles blitzed Simpson on 2/3 of his drop backs. It was the highest blitz rate Alabama faced this season. OU finished with 4 sacks. Simpson and OC Ryan Grubb need to find an alternative game plan to deal with the pressure. A running game would help a ton; however, Alabama struggles to run the ball and Oklahoma is one of the best run defenses in the country. RB Jam Miller will be back from injury after missing the SEC Championship Game. He will give a boost to the pass protection. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alabama pick up the tempo here. Pay attention early to see if Alabama has any answer to OU’s pressure.

Oklahoma Offense vs Alabama Defense

• Oklahoma’s offense has been dreadful, and I have doubts they figure it out against this Alabama defense. In the first matchup, John Mateer finished with only 138 passing yards. Alabama doesn’t generate a ton of pressure but they have one of the best secondaries in all of college football. If Bama elects to pick up tempo, OU will want to slow things down when they have control of the ball. In order to do that, they will need Mateer to make a few big plays with his legs.

My bet: Alabama +1.5 -110

• I have no reason to trust Oklahoma’s offense. Yes, it is possible Oklahoma’s defense finds a way themselves, but I believe Alabama has more options to win this game. OU will once again look to force a few turnovers. Ty Simpson and Alabama have to maneuver around the pressure and take care of the football. Kalen DeBoer is 8-0 off the bye week. He game plans very well when given extra preparation. This will once again be another physical, low-scoring game. Roll Tide. 24-17.

Miami vs Texas A&M

Winner advances to play #2 Ohio State

• This will be a great game between the only two teams that managed to beat Notre Dame this season. It will be the first playoff appearance for both teams. Miami lost 2 games in a conference they should have dominated. Texas A&M managed to finish 11-1 against a weaker SEC schedule.

Miami Offense vs Texas A&M Defense

• Since the loss to SMU, Carson Beck has played well. It hasn’t been against the best list of opponents, but he has looked good. Texas A&M will need to key in on Miami WR Malachi Toney. As a freshman, Toney has already made his name as one of the top WRs in college football. Miami’s elite offensive line against Texas A&M’s elite defensive line will be a fascinating matchup. If A&M can find ways to make Beck uncomfortable, he becomes turnover prone. Texas A&M’s run defense allows 5.5 YPC, one of the worst marks among power 4 teams. However, Miami’s EPA/Rush ranks 105th and 79th in success rate. Mike Elko is a defensive guy. Given a few weeks to prep, I feel like he will construct a solid game plan given.

Texas A&M Offense vs Miami Defense

• The biggest matchup in this game will be Miami’s elite defensive line against a very strong Texas A&M’s offensive line. It seems like the Aggies will be getting RB Le’Veon Moss back for this game. He has not played since the Florida game on October 11th. Moss managed 3 TDs earlier in the season against Notre Dame. He also ran for 139 yards and a score against Auburn’s solid run defense. Marcel Reed banged his ankle up against Texas, but he should he full health after a few weeks off. If Miami can find a way to generate pressure with 4 while dropping 7, Reed will struggle.

My Bet: Texas A&M -3

• Both teams are elite in the trenches. Both QBs are turnover prone. Whichever team finds a way to make the opposing QB uncomfortable, will win this game. I trust Elko more than Cristobal. It’s a noon kick, but the 12th man will be rocking. A&M 24-20.

Tulane vs Ole Miss

Winner advances to play #3 Georgia

• These two met earlier in week 4 with Ole Miss dominating the matchup, 45-10. The Rebels ran away with it from the beginning. Tulane QB, Jake Retzlaff, was really rattled as he started the game 0-9. As we all know, Lane Kiffin is gone. It’s the Pete Golding show now. Tulane HC Jon Sumrall, has also accepted a new job as Florida’s head coach, but he will be allowed to coach his team throughout the playoff.

Tulane Offense vs Ole Miss Defense

• As I mentioned earlier, Ole Miss made Jake Retzclaff really uncomfortable in their first matchup. The Senior QB had his worst game of the year, finishing 5/17 with only 56 passing yards. Tulane needs to find a way to run the football effectively. The Ole Miss defense ranks 132nd in EPA/Rush. However, Tulane has not been great at establishing the run as they sit at 93rd in EPA/Rush. Ole Miss will look to replicate their defensive performance. Retzlaff will need to find a way to deal with pressure. However, he is a dangerous threat with his legs and Ole Miss has not faced a ton of mobile QBs.

Ole Miss Offense vs Tulane Defense

• The Ole Miss offense cruised in their first matchup against this defensive unit. Lane Kiffin will not be on the sidelines for this one, but OC Charlie Weiss will be returning to coach throughout the playoffs. QB Trinidad Chambliss finished 17/27 for 307 yards and 2 TDs in the first game. Chambliss also added 112 yards on the ground. He throws the deep ball very well, which will exploit Tulane’s secondary. The Green Wave rank 68th in EPA/Rush and 79th in EPA/Pass. RB Kewan Lacy has been on great. He ranks 9th in the country in total rushing yards and 2nd in rushing TDs. Lacy has managed 367 rushing yards in his last two games against Florida and Mississippi State.

My bet: Ole Miss -17 -115

• It’s the Pete Golding show. I expect Ole Miss to come out ready to play. This team wants to shut up the off-field distractions and deliver a big time performance. I expect Golding to keep his foot on the gas to send a message. Tulane has been vulnerable the entire season, especially on defense. Rebels 41-17.

James Madison vs Oregon

Winner advances to play #4 Texas Tech

• JMU will be making the trip across the country to face Oregon in the Saturday night cap. Both teams have coaches on the move. Oregon’s OC and DC have accepted head coaching jobs. JMU’s HC has accepted the UCLA position. All will be coaching their teams throughout the playoffs. Oregon is searching for their first CFB playoff win since 2014.

James Madison Offense vs Oregon Defense

• JMU’s offense really figured it out in the mid season. QB Alonzo Barnett has managed 14 passing TDs since Week 8, the 10th highest mark in that time frame. He can throw it well downfield. JMU’s offense is centered around their rushing attack. The Dukes rank 39th in EPA/Rush and 29th in success rate. Oregon doesn’t really have a true flaw, but their run defense has been vulnerable at times this season. The Ducks have an elite secondary and pass rush. In week 2, Louisville’s defensive line had a field day against JMU’s offensive line, racking up 6 sacks. Oregon ranks 8th in EPA/Pass (9th in success rate) and 31st in EPA/Rush (63rd in success rate).. I don’t expect Barnett and JMU to find success through the air. However, they may be able to cause problems with their rushing attack.

Oregon Offense vs James Madison Defense

• Oregon’s run game is elite. They feature 3 backs and can really beat you with multiple schemes. Dante Moore is a first round pick if he decides to enter the draft. Oregon’s offensive line has done a phenomenal job of keeping him clean all season. Also, Oregon may be getting to full health at WR. If that happens, I believe the passing game will make a huge leap. James Madison has been elite on the defensive side of the ball. The Dukes rank 15th in EPA/Rush, 4th in EPA/Pass, and 1st in overall success rate.

My bet: Oregon 1H -11.5 -105

• I will likely adding a bet here. If Oregon dominates the first half, I will stay away due to the possibility of letting their foot off the gas. If JMU finds a way to keep it close in the first half, I will hit Oregon’s live number. I expect the Ducks to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They are one of the most balanced teams in the country. James Madison is a good team, but this is a huge step up in competition from the Sun Belt teams. Autzen will be rocking. Oregon 38-13.

Bets:

Alabama +1.5

Texas A&M -3

Ole Miss -17

Oregon 1H -11.5

Yes, I am siding with the public this week. Good luck!