Hello everyone, welcome back.

For my bowl game bets, check out:

2025-26 BOWL GAMES

We have 4 playoff matchup scheduled. Ohio State and Miami will play on New Year’s Eve while the other 3 will take place on New Year’s Day.

Matchups:

Cotton Bowl – Miami vs Ohio State

Orange Bowl – Oregon vs Texas Tech

Rose Bowl – Alabama vs Indiana

Sugar Bowl – Ole Miss vs Georgia

Cotton Bowl

Miami vs Ohio State (Dec 31st)

• Winner will play Ole Miss / Georgia winner

Miami Defense vs Ohio State offense

• In Miami’s first round matchup against Texas A&M, we witnessed the Hurricanes sack Marcel Reed 7 times. Miami’s pressure forced him into throwing 2 interceptions while fumbling once. Rueben Bain Jr and Akheem Mesidor are two of the best pass rushers in the country. Ohio State has not allowed many sacks all season; however, A&M also did not allow many sacks prior to playing Miami. Indiana found a way to rack up 5 sacks in the B1G Championship Game. Julian Sayin has executed well in getting the ball out of his hand quickly. Ohio State will also look to rely on Bo Jackson to take pressure off the young QB. The Buckeyes have only failed to rush for 100+ yards in two games this season, which also happen to be their two lowest scoring performances this year (Texas & Indiana). Miami is elite against the run. The matchup of the game will be seeing how Sayin performs when pressured against this elite Miami defensive line.

Ohio State Defense vs Miami Offense

• Similar to Sayin, Carson Beck loves to get the ball out of his hand early and Miami’s offensive line has been elite in protecting their QB. When pressured, Beck’s production takes a huge dip. I expect Ohio State DC Matt Patricia to dial up a few blitz packages as an attempt to make Beck uncomfortable. Beck did not look great against A&M as he tossed for a season-low 103 yards, but he took care of the football as A&M’s defensive line failed to rattle him. I’m not sure Miami has the WRs needed to win this matchup. A&M did a great job of holding WR Malachi Toney and it severely limited the passing game. Ohio State also has the talent to shut him down. Against the Aggies, RB Mark Fletcher stepped up for the Hurricanes. He finished with 172 yards on 17 carries, including a huge 56 yard run late in the game. However, Ohio State’s run defense has been elite. The Buckeyes are only allowing 84.5 rushing yards per game to opposing backs.

• This will be a great matchup in the trenches. It could turn into a low-scoring, defensive matchup, which could be good for Miami. I am not sure the Beck and the Miami pass catchers can score the points needed if OSU finds offensive success.

Prediction: Ohio State 21-13

My Bets:

Miami +10 -110

0.6u to win 0.45u: Miami / OSU 1H u21.5 -132

Orange Bowl

Oregon vs Texas Tech (Jan 1st)

• Winner will play Alabama / Indiana winner

Oregon Defense vs Texas Tech Offense

• Can Tech find any rushing success against this defense? The Red Raiders rank 108th in EPA/Rush. However, RBs Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams have been much more effective over Tech’s last 5 games. Oregon’s defense does not have a true flaw, but they have been vulnerable against the run at times this season. QB Behren Morton has been great when kept clean. He has also been bad when facing pressure. Texas Tech’s offensive line has done a great job of keeping him clean in the pocket. WR Reggie Virgil had his best game of the season in the B12 Championship Game against BYU, racking up 8 catches for 86 yards. Oregon’s defense allowed over 500 yards of offense to James Madison, but most of the JMU production was in the 2nd half during garbage time. The score was 34-6 before JMU scored their first TD early in the 3rd quarter. I am not putting much into that.

Texas Tech Defense vs Oregon Offense

• This is the matchup I am waiting to see. Texas Tech’s run defense against Oregon’s rushing attack. The Red Raiders are only allowing 68.5 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses, which is the best mark in the country. LB Jacob Rodriguez has been one of the best players in the country. He will need to show out against this Oregon backfield. The Ducks have a three headed monster in the backfield that has rushed for 217.1 yards per game, which ranks 13th in the country. Tech’s defensive line is headlined by David Bailey, who leads the country in sacks and QB pressures. It will be a great matchup as Oregon’s pass protection is one of the best in the country. Dante Moore has been playing well and getting hype for the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. He has done a good job of getting the ball out of his hands early the entire season. Moore and the offensive line will need to be on their A game against this Tech defensive front. Oregon is also getting healthy at WR, which gives Moore extra playmakers and provides an offensive boost.

• I am excited for this matchup. On paper, it is one of the best matchups of the season. I expect it to be a war in the trenches. Can’t wait to watch. Give me the under.

Prediction: Texas Tech 24-20

My bet:

Oregon / Texas Tech u53.5 -110

0.5u: Texas Tech ML +110

Rose Bowl

Alabama vs Indiana (Jan 1st)

• Winner will play Texas Tech / Oregon winner

Alabama Defense vs Indiana Offense

• Alabama has struggled at generating a pass rush for the majority of the season. However, the Tide racked up 5 sacks against Oklahoma in the first round. They feature a very good secondary with a solid coverage unit. Fernando Mendoza has been held in check against better defensive competition. He has combined for 6 TDs and 5 interceptions in games against Iowa, Oregon, Penn St, Maryland, and Ohio State. Can Alabama’s coverage step up against Mendoza despite him having a clean pocket? Can Indiana’s WRs create separation against Alabama’s DBs? Indiana also ranks 6th in EPA/Rush and 10th in rushing yards per game. RBs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black have been consistent throughout the entire season. Alabama run defense was vulnerable early in the season, but they have really improved down the stretch. The Tide have not allowed an opposing RB to eclipse 65 yards since the Tennessee game. One thing Alabama has struggled with is limiting opposing QBs that can make plays with their legs. Mendoza is not the fastest runner on the planet, but he can run the football when needed.

Indiana Defense vs Alabama Offense

• Indiana ranks 3rd in opposing rushing yards allowed per game. Everyone has noticed that Alabama has a non-existent rushing attack. The Tide have averaged less than 4 yards per carry in 8 of their 14 games this season. The passing game will be their best shot of pulling off this upset. Simpson has struggled against pressure this season; however, he did a great job against OU’s pressure in the first round. He may have found an X-factor in freshman WR Lotzeir Brooks. Brooks had his best performance of the season against Oklahoma, racking up 79 yards with 2 TDs. Oklahoma did a good job of keeping Germie Bernard in check, but I expect him to have a better performance here. A Ryan Williams breakout game would be huge, but Williams hasn’t eclipsed 50+ yards since October. Alabama has an elite receiving core with multiple threats and a QB that can deliver throws. Indiana will need to generate pressure on Simpson. Which Ty Simpson will we get?
• Similar to the first two games, I’m expecting a low-scoring affair. Indiana will likely produce pressure on Simpson. Can Simpson navigate around the pressure again? Can Alabama’s defense find ways to make Mendoza uncomfortable? It’s hard for me to judge this Indiana team. They simply find ways to win football games. Cignetti used to coach at Alabama and wants this win bad. However, I cannot bring myself to take them. I believe something about that Alabama come back may have launched a spark.

Prediction: Alabama 23-21

My bet:

Alabama +7 -110

0.24u: : Alabama ML +210

Sugar Bowl

Ole Miss vs Georgia (Jan 1st)

• Winner will play Ohio State / Miami winner.

• In their first matchup, Ole Miss led for 3 quarters before Georgia dominated the 4th quarter 17-0 in Athens. During the second half, Gunner Stockton was perfect: 12-12, 135 yards, 3 TDs. Georgia also dominated the game on the ground, finishing with 221 yards rushing while holding Kewan Lacy to a season-low 31 yards on 12 carries.

Ole Miss Offense vs Georgia Defense

• Despite allowing 35 points, Georgia’s defense actually performed well against this Ole Miss offense. A big reason to that was holding Kewan Lacy to his season low on the ground. They also did a good job of keeping Trinidad Chambliss in check as he posted his lowest completion rate of the season. However, Ole Miss did a good job of connecting down field. If Georgia increases the man coverage rate like they did in the first matchup, they will win a few deep balls. I believe this is where Ole Miss will be missing Lane Kiffin. The only two teams to score over 21 points against Georgia were Ole Miss and Tennessee. The offense just didn’t operate at the same tempo against Tulane as it did when Kiffin had on the headset. Georgia’s defense ranks 71st in EPA/Pass and doesn’t generate a ton of pressure. However, these two teams played back in October. Kirby Smart has his defense in their final form. The Dawgs have only allowed 7.25 points per game across their last 4.

Georgia Offense vs Ole Miss Defense

• As I mentioned earlier, Georgia had success on the ground in the first matchup. The Dawgs had 6 different players collect a rushing attempt and averaged nearly 5 yards per carry. Nate Frazier has been on fire, averaging 6.7 yards per carry in his last 5 games. Stockton finished the first matchup 26/31 for 289 yards with 4 passing TDs. Georgia should be able to win in the trenches and on the outside to replicate a similar offensive performance here. Despite only allowing 10 points to Tulane, the Green Wave collected 421 yards of total offense.

• There have been reports that Kiffin called his staff to Baton Rouge for a couple of days, which caused them to miss meetings and a walk-through.
• I like Georgia here. I believe they have been playing like the best team in the country. Georgia had a good idea they would play Ole Miss here and Kirby has had nearly a month of prep.

Prediction: Georgia 34 Ole Miss 17

My Bets:

Georgia / Ole Miss u56.5 -110

Georgia -6.5 -107

0.4u: UGA -9.5 +135

0.2u: Georgia -13.5 +186