Hello everyone, welcome back

The stage is set. The College Football semifinals consists of four programs that have overcome adversity to make it. In the Fiesta Bowl, Mario Cristobal’s Miami Hurricanes – fresh off an upset over defending national champion Ohio State- take on an explosive Ole Miss squad that also pulled off a big upset against Georgia. Pete Golding has started his head coaching career off with a bang.

Next we have the Peach Bowl which consists of a rematch between two heavyweight B1G programs. NFL draft scouts with early picks will have their eyes glued to this QB matchup between Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore. Dan Lanning is eyeing Oregon’s first return to the title game since 2014. Curt Cignetti and top-ranked Indiana are two games away from to finishing the job for the program’s first ever national championship.

Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Arizona)

Miami (-3.5) vs Ole Miss

• How will Trinidad Chambliss handle Miami’s pressure? Chambliss is obviously a very athletic QB and does a great job of taking care of the football. He has only tossed three interceptions 3 interceptions on 408 drop backs this season. Ole Miss did not allow a sack during that Sugar Bowl shootout; however, Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain have been playing on a different level. In their two playoff performances, Miami has racked up 12 total sacks. In their matchup against A&M, Miami executed with their spy on Marcel Reed. I expect the same here. On top of that, they have shut down their opponent’s rushing attack. It may be difficult for Ole Miss to get Kewan Lacy going in this matchup, which could force 3rd and long situations. Lacy has rushed for 87 yards vs Tulane & 98 vs UGA and is a centerpiece for this Ole Miss offense. The Rebels love to rely on him in the redzone. His 23 rushing TDs this season leads all power 4 backs by a wide margin. In their two games, Miami allowed Jeremiah Smith (OSU) and Mario Craver (A&M) to win on a few deep routes. Ole Miss loves to spread the ball around. In both postseason games, they have had 10 different players record a reception. Harrison Wallace, De’Zhaun Stripling, and Deuce Alexander are all legitimate deep threats.
• Carson Beck has yet to throw an interception in this year’s playoffs. Ole Miss does not have a great pass rush nor do they dial up many blitz packages. However, I expect Ole Miss to game plan accordingly. They need to make Beck as uncomfortable as possible and will likely blitz more than usual. A&M and Ohio State keyed in on Malachi Toney, but both were shredded on the ground by RB Mark Fletcher. The Rebel defense has not been great against the run all season. In fact, they rank 132nd in EPA/Rush and 130th in success rate. Fletcher has been great in the first two games and this will be his best matchup to date. Miami’s offensive line, led by top 10 pick Francis Mauigoa, is elite. They should be able to find success on the ground while giving Beck a clean pocket.

• If I am Ole Miss, I am looking to turn this game into a shootout. If I am Miami, I am looking to turn this game into a slow grind where they can win in the trenches. I believe I trust Chambliss more under center, which is huge in these big time games. However, I am not in a rush to the counter to fade Miami’s advantage in the trenches. I believe this game starts slow then picks up the pace in the 2nd half after Ole Miss makes halftime adjustments.
• Prediction: Miami 27-24

My bet: Ole Miss / Miami 1H u25.5 -110

Peach Bowl (Atlanta, GA)

Indiana (-4) vs Oregon

• In this year’s Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, we have a rematch between Oregon and Indiana. Both teams dominated their quarterfinal matchup with Oregon beating Texas Tech 23-0 and Indiana beating Alabama 38-3. In their first matchup, Indiana walked into Eugene and won with relatively ease. Oregon even had a pick 6 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. In that game, the Hoosiers sacked Dante Moore 6 times.
• Oregon only managed to score 13 offensive points in the first matchup. They did not find much success in early downs and finished 3-14 on 3rd down. The Ducks will be without RB Jordon Davison in this matchup. Davison has led in the Ducks in rushing yards in both of their playoff matchups and was the only back that found some success in Oregon’s first matchup against Indiana. Davison is also the team’s goal line back as he has 15 rushing TDs on the season. Noah Whittington and Dierre Hill will lead the RB room in this semifinal matchup. Whittington is the team’s leading rusher. Oregon loves to use their two TE’s in Kenyon Sadiq and Jamari Johnson. Sadiq projects as a first rounder in this upcoming draft. The Ducks have to find success with outside with their WRs in this matchup. Oregon has only had a WR eclipse over 100 yards twice this season: Malik Benson vs JMU & Washington. Moore does a great job of throwing the deep ball, but Indiana does a great job of keeping everything in front of them. Oregon also needs to find success in the red zone. Texas Tech’s defense is no joke, but the Ducks had multiple chances to blow that game open. Before the garbage time TD with 0:16 left on the clock, it was a 16-0 game that felt like it was 31-0.
• The Ducks found ways to slow down Fernando Mendoza in their first matchup. When I rewatched film, they pressured Mendoza on a good percentage of his drop backs. Indiana’s WRs 15 of Mendoza’s 20 competitions went to Elijah Sarrat and Omar Cooper. Indian’s rushing attack has dominated all season. They dialed up 237 rushing yards in total against Alabama in the Rose Bowl. In their first matchup against Oregon, the Hoosiers only managed 3.3 YPC with zero explosive runs. Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington will need to have huge games for the Ducks if they hope to have similar success.
• Walking into Autzen as a TD underdog and winning was no easy task. The Hoosiers silenced many critics in that game, including myself. However, this Oregon team is very balanced and this will be a battle in the trenches. I do expect both coaches to make a few offensive adjustments from the first meeting. I may look to a live under if this game starts out fast. Oregon has to find a way to win matchups in the passing game. Indiana has looked unbeatable the last few weeks, but it’s hard to beat a good team twice in the same season.
• Prediction: Indiana 24-23

My bet: Oregon +4 -113

For any questions, reach out to me on X: WR_Bets