Check out previous post for seeds 1-8.

Tallahassee Regional

The Seminoles claim a host site for the 2nd consecutive season with hopes of making it to Omaha again. FSU’s pitching currently owns a top 10 ERA allowed with a top 10 strikeout rate. A big thanks to that is Jamie Arnold, who may be the first arm taken off the board in this summer’s draft. He has been hit around in his last two starts with 4 ERs allowed vs UNC and 5 vs Duke in the ACC tourney. The lineup has pop from top to bottom. Potential Gokden Spikes winner Alex Lodise will headline the lineup with guys like Myles Bailey and Max Williams. The Seminoles will need the bats to step up against a few of the country’s top pitching staffs like Northeastern and Mississippi State. FSU owned a 24-7 record at home this season.

Northeastern heads into Tallahassee riding the nation’s longest win streak (27). The Huskies have some of the best pitching numbers in the country: 1st in ERA , WHIP , and BB/9. Jordan Gottesman, Will Jones, and Aivan Cabral all have been staples in the Northeastern rotation. Charlie Walker has been lights out as closer. They are not as strong offensively, but have still held their ground all season. Harrison Feinberg was co-CAA player of the year with Cam Maldonado and Jack Goodman receiving 1st team honors.

Mississippi State finds themselves in the postseason picture as a 3 seed no host wanted to see in their regional. Hats off to interim coach Justin Parker for maintaining the fight in this team after the dismissal of former HC Chris Lemonis. This team is underrated when it comes to comparing SEC teams. They are well balanced with the pitching staff finished with the 4th lowest xFIP in the country while the offense finished with a top 30 wRC+. Pico Kohn will headline the rotation that also finished 3rd nationally in K/BB%.

Prediction: Mississippi State

Oxford Regional

After a strong showing in Hoover with wins over Florida, LSU, and Arkansas, the Rebels locked up a hosting site for the first time since 2021. This will be the 11th time hosting, all coming in the Mike Bianco era. Similar to many of the elite SEC teams, Ole Miss is very balanced. On the mound, they owned the 9th lowest xFIP. The rotation is led by Hunter Elliot, which is the top arm in the regional. After missing 2023 & 2024, Elliot posted a 9-3 record with a 3.09 ERA. He looked really good in Hoover vs Florida. The offense owns top 30 wRC+ with the 2nd highest walk rate in the SEC. The Rebels have also hit the ball much better at home.

Georgia Tech will likely be a popular pick as they have a lot to play for. The Jackets were the ACC regular season champs which is usually an automatic host, but not this year. Add that in with long time head coach Danny Hall’s retirement at the end of the season should create a motivated bunch. The lineup has plenty of pop led by guys like Drew Burresss, Kent Schmidt, Kyle Lodise, and Alex Hernandez. Their pitching has cost at times this year but has talented arms such as Mason Patel and Jaylen Paden. I will be rooting for Tech as I would like Hall to receive the proper send off in Omaha, but the Jackets will have to really glue it together on the mound if they also wish for that to happen.

Western Kentucky found themselves on the bubble before winning the CUSA tournament. The Hilltoppers own the 3rd lowest team ERA with a top 30 xFIP. Drew Whalen was the CUSA pitcher of the year with Jack Bennett and Lucas Hartman following him. They have been swinging it well down the stretch, owning the 15th highest wRC+ in the country. CF Ryan Wideman may be the most entertaining player in this regional, which really says a lot with all the other talent. The problem with WKU is their SOS, which ranked 185th according to the metrics. They played a weak early season schedule, but the CUSA was a strong conference and WKU earned plenty of good wins. They won the series @ DBU and played well in midweeks against Vanderbilt, Louisville, and Kentucky.

Prediction: Georgia Tech

Clemson Regional

Clemson earns a regional host after a top 10 finish in both RPI & KPI. The Tigers will be hosting for the 3rd consecutive season under Erik Bakich. They have not made the trip to Omaha since 2010, however this could be the team to snap the streak. Aidan Knaak will lead a staff that has had its ups and downs this season. They rank 36th in xFIP but 78th in ERA. Lucas Mahlsedt will be a reliable arm out of the bullpen. Clemson’s lineup ranks 37th in wRC+ but strikes out at over a 22% rate, which could be troubling. Cam Cannerella has heated up down the stretch, hitting .448 over the last month. The Tigers finished 26-7 at Doug Kingsmore this season.

West Virginia will not pop on the paper in any metric, but you will also have a tough time finding a category they struggle with. The Mountaineers were Big 12 regular season champs, but skidded down the stretch. Griffin Kirn will lead the rotation. WVU finished with the 99th rated SOS, which was severely lower than other Big 12 teams that made the tournament.

Kentucky heads to Clemson after reaching the 13 win mark in the SEC. People will complain but 13 wins in that conference receives an automatic bid. However, Kentucky’s statistics are not good offensively. The Wildcats rank outside the top 100 in wRC+, AVG, and BB%. Their rotation is well rounded by guys like Nic McCay, Nate Harris, and Ben Cleaver. All 3 are holding opponents under a .240 average. Pitching and small ball has been Mingione’s approach at UK, but he may need more offensive production if they hope to escape Clemson.

Prediction: Clemson

Eugene Regional

Oregon had success in their first year as members of the Big Ten. They are well balanced on both the offensive and pitching side of things. The Ducks rank top 30 in HR, OPS, wRC+. Mason Neville leads the country with 26 HRs while Jacob Walsh and Ryan Cooneh add plenty of depth. Oregon also ranks top 15 nationally in ERA and WHIP. Their staff is led by Grayson Grinsell and Seth Mattox. Oregon has made supers b2b seasons, but their last trip to Omaha was 1954.

Arizona heads to Eugene as the 2 seed after winning the Big 12 conference tournament. Arizona’s pitching staff is elite ranking top 20 in xFIP, SIERA, and BB/9. 5 pitchers have ERAs under 4.00. They showcased the depth in Arlington as they only allowed 1 run in each of their 3 Big 12 tournament games. Arizona’s major concern this season has been the offense as they rank 131st in wRC+.

Cal Poly won the Big West tournament to earn their first appearance in the NCAA tournament since 2014. The Mustangs piled a 22-10 record away from home this season, which played its part in a top 30 RPI. Cal Poly ranks 22nd in wRC+, 7th in Batting Average, and 23 in OPS but only walks at an abysmal 8.29% rate. 1B Zach Daudet will lead the lineup. On the mound, Cal Poly ranks top 50 in ERA due to handing out minimal free passes. Griffin Naess is the ace and likely to get the ball in game one against Arizona. The Mustangs are only 4-11 in Q1 games this season while Arizona is an impressive 12-8.

Prediction: Cal Poly

Conway Regional

Coastal Carolina earns a host as the top ranked mid-major program in the country. Kevin Schnall had an excellent first season in charge. Coastal finished with 48 wins – its most in a single season since 2016 when they won the national championship. The Chants also claimed the Sun Belt regular season & tournament titles. Their pitching has been remarkable as their staff ranks 2nd in ERA while being top 20 in BB/9, xFIP, and WHIP. Jacob Morrison, Cameron Flukey, and Riley Eikhoff start while Ryan Lynch and Dominick Carbone anchor the bullpen. Coastal’s offense gives me some worries. They rank 144th in wRC+ which is by far the lowest among hosts. I was not high on the Sun Belt this season outside of CC & USM so it will be interesting to see how this lineup fares against staffs like Florida.

The Gators claim the 2 seed in Conway after making a late push for a hosting spot. Once again Florida started the season looking like a potential postseason miss before flipping the switch and rolling through nearly everyone down the stretch. Sully once again proved to be one of the best coaches in the game. Despite a 4.85 ERA, Florida owns the 6th lowest xFIP and 7th lowest SIERA. Liam Peterson, Pierce Coppola, and Aidan King set up for an elite rotation. Jake Clemente has been lights out from the bullpen. Florida’s offense ranks 38th in wRC+ despite losing numerous starters to injury. Hopefully the Gators see Colby Shelton return to the lineup as he could be a huge addition.

Despite being in a reloading year, Cliff Godwin managed to get the Pirates hot at the right time as they won the American Conference Tournament as the 6 seed. Their strength is in their pitching. Ethan Norby is a dominant starter and I expect him to be a big portal name in the next few weeks. ECU will need a monumental start from Norby in game one against Florida if they hope to win this regional. The Pirates offense will have to keep momentum from the tournament as their season-long stays are not in their favor: 113th in wRC+, 171st in BA, 176th in K%. Dixon Williams and Brayden Burress will anchor the lineup.

Prediction: Florida

Knoxville Regional

Despite dropping numerous SEC zeroes down the stretch, Tennessee manages to hold on to a hosting spot after a strong showing in Hoover. The Vols have been one of the top teams in the country according to multiple metrics like ERA, xFIP, K/9, WHIP, wRC+, SLG %, HRs, OPS, wOBA, and more but have had problems winning games. The rotation is led by Liam Doyle will be your Pitcher of the Year and Marcus Phillips has some of the best Stuff+ in the country. There are also multiple bullpen arms such as AJ Russell that have the ability to step up for multiple innings if needed. On the offensive end, Andrew Fischer has been one of my favorite hitters ever to watch in Knoxville. He is glued in every at bat and smashes the cover off the baseball. He deserves to be a top 10 pick this summer. Gavin Kilen, Hunter Ensley, and Dalton Bargo are also threats at the top of this Vol lineup. They struggled at times including a few times at home, but the ceiling with this team is another national championship. The talent matches up with anyone on paper. However the inability to execute with RISP, hold runners on base or make simple plays at 2B could cause this team to flop as we have seen at times this season.

Wake Forest heads to Knoxville as the two seed. I have honestly disappointed in The Demon Deacons season thus far, but this team has the ability to turn it around in regionals. Similar to Tennessee, Wake is top 20 in multiple offensive metrics: wRC+, HRs, BB rate, OBP, OPS. Marek Houston will likely be a top 10 pick while Kade Lewis offers a top of pop in the 3 hole. This is an offense that could make some noise with LNS ballpark dimensions. On the mound, Wake ranks 53rd in xFIP and 9th in K/9. Their problem has been the walking batters as their BB/9 rate ranks 222nd.

Cincinnati is an interesting team that is going overlooked in Knoxville. Their lineup is led by Big 12 Player of the Year, Kerrington Cross. On the mound, Cincy will have Nathan Taylor to throw game one against Wake Forest. Cincinnati led the Big 12 in stolen bases, which could present a problem for TN if the matchup comes up.

Miami (OH) will bring another potentially dangerous offense to LNS. The RedHawks rank top 35 in OBP and wRC+, however their pitching could present a problem.

Prediction: Tennessee

Los Angeles Regional

Despite only earning 3 Q1 wins on the season, UCLA managed to finish ranked 15th in RPI and KPI with the 22nd toughest SOS. The Bruin’s offense is consistent, producing a top 40 clip in wRC+, AVG, and OBP. The lineup is led by Big Ten Player of the Year, Roch Cholowsky. UCLA ranks 27th in ERA and 41st in WHIP but 118th in xFIP with a low K rate. They have arms but lack the top arm talent that other hosting teams have available.

UC Irvine will stay close to home as they are the 2 seed in UCLA’s Regional. The Anteaters began the season looking like the best mid-major team in the country before taking a step back the last few weekends. Irvine has plenty of offensive firepower as they rank 9th in wRC+ and 5th in wOBA. It is concerning that they strike out at a 20.5% clip facing a majority of mid major arms. Irvine also proved to be capable on the mound, ranking inside the top 50 in xFIP, ERA, K/9, and SIERA. They will need their best from guys like Trevor Hansen, Ryder Brooks, Ricky Ojeda, and Riley Kelly. Pitching goes a long ways in Jackie Robinson Stadium.

Arizona State ends on the right side of the bubble as they receive the 3 seed in LA. I’m really not sure what to make out of this group. They can appear Omaha-bound one game then completely fall on their face in the next. They strike out at a low rate and rank 11th in batting average out but only 68th in wRC+ and 86th in wOBA. On the mound the Sun Devils rank 10th in xFIP, 6th in K/9, and 12th in SIERA but only 101st in ERA and 132nd in BB/9. Ben Jacobs has been their ace the last two seasons. They will need his best version followed by all American reliever Cole Carlon against Irvine on Friday. UC Irvine managed to win 7 Q1 games this season, more than anyone in the LA Regional.

Fresno’s lineup hits well for average but struggle to hit for power. 3B Murf Gray is a player to watch.

Prediction: UC Irvine

Hattiesburg Regional

Christian Ostrander and Southern Miss are no strangers to hosting. Prior to the Coastal loss, USM had won 18 consecutive games. JB Middleton is one of the best arms in the country and will lead the way on the mound. Middleton, Matt Adams, Colby Allen and others contributed to a staff that finished top 25 in xFIP, ERA, WHIP, and BB/9. The offense swings it well, ranking 11th nationally in wRC+. Sun Belt player of the year, Nick Monistere leads the lineup. Southern Miss heads into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Eagles went 25-5 at Pete Taylor Park this season.

Alabama will head to Hattiesburg as the highest rated 2 seed according to RPI. The Crimson Tide recorded 15 Q1 wins, 12 more Q1 wins than UCLA. The unfortunate fact for Alabama is that there were 8, maybe 9, SEC teams ahead of them. The Crimson Tide lineup looked unstoppable in non-conference play, but stumbled in a few SEC series. Justin LeBron and Kade Snell will headline the lineup. On the mound, Alabama used Tyler Fay, Riley Quick, and Zane Adams as starters with one of the nation’s best relieves, Carson Ozmer, in the bullpen. If the bats get hot with Adams and Quick reviving back to being the 1-2 punch we saw earlier in the season, Bama could end in Omaha.

Miami’s season has been streaky. They caught fire and looked like a potential host mid season before cooling off to end the season. Their pitching has been solid as they rank 62nd in xFIP with a top 35 WHIP and BB/9. Griffin Hugus will headline the rotation.

Prediction: Alabama