Hello everyone. Welcome to Week 4. We are off to a hot start. Let’s keep it rolling.

For big game breakdowns, scroll to the bottom.

YTD: 45-28 (+15.01u)

Friday – September 19th

Oklahoma State -10 -110

• I know OSU is bad, but I believe the market is overreacting to the Oregon blowout loss. It was OSU’s QB, Zane Flores, first collegiate start after the Cowboys lost Hauss Hejny for the season in week one. Overall it was a tough spot for OSU and it showed in the final score. Now they have had the opportunity to regroup after a bye week. Gundy’s seat is hot, so a blowout Friday night win at home on ESPN against an in-state opponent would definitely help his case. OSU should have the talent gap to grab an early lead and pound the rock with success. Tulsa’s defense ranks near last in 3rd down success rate. Cowboys 31-17.

Saturday – September 20th

Arkansas / Memphis o61.5 -110

• The Arkansas offense ranks top 10 in EPA / Pass and EPA / Rush. The Memphis defense struggles against the pass and has showcased tackling issues. Arkansas will find plenty of early down success in this game. Memphis offense ranks top 10 in EPA / rush while also showcasing an efficient passing offense. They can really hit on the deep ball and will have a few open opportunities against a vulnerable secondary. The Arkansas defense was torched by an Ole Miss backup QB last weekend. The Hogs have had trouble getting off the field on 3rd down. It is a tricky spot for Arkansas: fresh off a close road loss and ND coming to town next weekend, but I like Taylen Green. Memphis cannot contain him. I think he leads them to a road win. 42-30 Hogs.

Clemson -16.5 -112

• This is a much better matchup for this Clemson team to find itself. Syracuse will play their first true road game against a talented Clemson team desperate for a win. Cade Klubnik will look to find his groove against a leaky Syracuse defense. Now, Clemson may just be bad, which would make this a large number but I’m not going to call it that just yet. They were given opportunities against Georgia Tech, but never capitalized. This will be their chance to change the direction of the season and find some momentum before then bye week. Clemson 52-17.

North Texas +3 -110

• I like North Texas. This line does not exist anymore, but I still like North Texas. The current price is more in the proper ballpark, but I am fine with the money line. The UNT offense has always scored points but I believe the defense is an improved unit this year, placing the Mean Green as a AAC contender. They nearly slipped up on the road @ WMU but bounced back last week with a 59-10 dismantling of Washington State. I am lower on Army this year than year’s past. An academy school is always a tricky game-plan for a defense. Army is 1-1, managing to lose as -14 favorites vs Tarleton State then winning outright as +17.5 dogs to Kansas State. They did receive the bye week, but it seems the Kansas State win may have been a little overrated. North Texas 31-24.

UNLV ML -120

• I hate backing this noon kickoff on the road but believe UNLV is the much better team. UNLV currently has the 5th best odds to make the CFB playoff among G5 teams. Miami has scored 17 total points in two games, a shutout by Wisconsin and a blowout loss by Rutgers. Both teams are coming off a bye week so I expect improvement from both sides. Miami may edge them out with the start time and home field advantage, but I will side with what I believe is the better team in a near pick em. UNLV 31-17.

Tennessee -37.5 -110

• I am not sure what Huepel’s ATS record is in games like this but he does well. I will back the big number after a tough home loss. Tennessee’s offense is elite and UAB cannot stop anyone. UAB allowed 4 TDs to Akron, who had not scored a point heading into the game. They also allowed 42 to Alabama State in week 1. Joey Aguilar moved up in Heisman odds despite the loss to Georgia. Tennessee’s offensive system is a nightmare prep for this UAB defense. The backups will play and keep points flowing. Vols likely hang a big number here. UAB’s offense is a better unit than their defense. They may be able to put up 2-3 scores, but TN hits the total themselves. Lay the big number. 66-17 Vols.

Notre Dame -24.5 -110

• There is a lot of football left to be played. The Irish are 0-2 ATS with 2 outright losses as favorites. However, they flashed upside in both losses. They are likely favored in every game here on out and a 10-2 ND team with two top 10 losses will be in the playoff. CJ Carr looks good for a first year starter, a lot to like. Purdue’s EPA/pass is near the bottom of the country. The Run game improved against A&M. Love & Price are a deadly backfield duo that will find success here. Purdue’s offense has improved with Barry Odom in charge, but it has also had showed issues. They struggled to run up the score against Ball State & Southern Illinois then didn’t have much success against USC. They also had one of the luckiest TDs I have ever seen against USC on a blown up trick play to help improve the number on the scoreboard. 2 tough losses, but Notre Dame’s season isn’t over. Marcus Freeman does a good job of covering the spread. I believe we see a similar score to last year’s 66-7 final. Irish roll here 51-10

James Madison -9.5 -110

• This line moved opposite, but I am fading Liberty until they prove me wrong or the market fully adjusts. They are 0-3 with b2b outright losses as TD favorites. JMU is off a bye week with plenty of preparation. The Dukes dominated in week one and put up a solid fight against Louisville on Friday night primetime week 2. Liberty has had struggles tackling against the run as their EPA/rush is near the bottom of the country. JMU’s passing attack is not great, but they should be able to run the ball. To help with that, their defense should have a field day. Liberty has yet to reach 30 points in a game this season against Maine, JSU, and Bowling Green. JMU’s defense will be their toughest test yet. Duke defense sets up field position for them to run the ball down Liberty’s throats. Lean under. JMU 27-13.

Buffalo -6 -110

• Troy will be in a tough spot without QB Goose Crowder. This line has the news factored in, but I do not know how Troy finds offensive success here. Their offensive EPA ranks #102 and that is with Crowder. Their coach has said they are not currently prepared for one of their backups to run the offense and it showed last week against Memphis. After Crowder went down, Troy didn’t really move the ball with much success the rest of the game. Buffalo’s defensive front is solid. I know they almost lost to Kent State, but it was a wake up call. They should put together a cleaner performance at home on Saturday. Simple game-plan. Stack the box. Stop the run and make the backup beat you. Force the kid into a few turnovers to set up the offense for some easy points. This will likely be a lower scoring game. Buffalo 20-10.

Ole Miss -11.5 -110

• 0-2 in fading Tulane this year, but we will test them a third time this weekend. Tulane will be fired up for this game. DraftKings currently have them as a +300 favorite to reach the CFB playoff as the G5 representative. Ole Miss has a QB battle, but it doesn’t matter which one they decide to use. They are both a dual threat. Austin Simmons was severely limited due to an ankle injury. Trinidad Chambliss lit up the Arkansas defense with 415 total yards and 3 TDs. Lane has said he plans on Austin being fine to play and anticipates him being the starter, but should be in line to Chambliss see work. The Ole Miss defense needs to show life and I believe this will be a good opportunity for them to do that. Jake Retzlaff has been phenomenal so far for Tulane. He has the 3rd most rushing yards in the country among QBs. However, I do believe Tulane’s offense is a step down from Taylen Green’s Arkansas Razorbacks. Retzlaff may be able to extend and make a few plays with his legs, but I don’t think Tulane can shoot it out with Ole Miss. Tulane had troubles on the road stopping South Alabama in the 2H. Ole Miss will establish the run & score. Rebels 38-20

UNC / UCF u48.5 -110

• I didn’t get the best number in time here, but still snagged a 48.5. I believe it is down to 47.5 currently. I do not mind it there, but probably wouldn’t dip down to 46.5. Since the week 1 TCU blowout loss, UNC’s defense seems improved while the offense does not. We have only seen UCF in 2 games, but they struggled to score in week one against Jax State. QB Cam Fancher was injured in week one and replaced by Tayven Jackson. It sounds like Fancher will return this week following the bye, but I am not sure who UCF decides to roll with. UCF ranks #7 in EPA / play on defense. Neither team has played with much tempo on offense. UCF 23-17

Mississippi State -20.5 -110

• If it isn’t broken then why try to fix it? The Cowbells continue to swing, as the Bulldogs remain one of the biggest surprises this season. They will look to remain hot leading into SEC play with a matchup against NIU this Saturday. NIU will have extra prep off a bye week, but they are really bad offensively. They have 200 total passing yards through 2 games against Maryland and Holy Cross. Their goal will be to keep the pace slow in an attempt to keep this as low-scoring as possible, but Miss State is just too hot right now. Blake Shapen has Lebby’s system figured out. 38-10, I believe Miss State continues to roll here and I have to say…. I am a little worried about the Vols visiting Starkville next weekend.

Temple / Georgia Tech o51.5 -110

• Temple ranks 13th in EPA/pass. They should find more success in this spot compared to last week’s against Oklahoma. Georgia Tech is fresh off a huge win against Clemson. Haynes King and Brent Key continue to dominate in ranked matchups. Tech will have success running the ball, as OU piled up 228 on the ground last weekend. Tech gets ahead early and Temple passes it around with more success. 42-17 final.

FIU -3.5 -110

• Another bet from Monday’s article that moved but I like it with anything under a touchdown. Update: line has came back to -4.5. Delaware’s offense has shown life, but their defense has issues. This will be Delaware’s first conference game as a member of the CUSA, fresh off their first win as a FBS program. The Hens outlasted UConn 44-41 in OT. FIU handled rival FAU last weekend. They also put up a strong showing against Penn State where they were only down 10-0 at halftime before PSU pulled away in the 4th. The Panthers have had success running the football and that should continue here.

East Carolina +8.5 -110

0.4u: East Carolina ML +250

• Upset of the week. BYU’s freshman QB Bear Bachmeier will be playing the first road game of his collegiate career. ECU’s numbers are good. Their defense has only allowed 3 points since week 1 (against 2 bad offenses but still). They rank top 10 in EPA/rush, which will be a huge factor against BYU. BYU’s offensive rushing attack ranks 8th in EPA/rush and they will look to take the pressure off the freshman QB in a rowdy environment. ECU QB Katin Houser has been great as he ranks 6th in FBS passing yards. The Pirates have not had much success running the ball, and I am not sure that changes here against a BYU defense that ranks #1 in EPA / rush. If I am ECU, I am game planning to stop the run and force Bear to throw it. Score early and allow the crowd to play a factor. ECU 24-21.

Florida +10 -115

• Miami is popular and I believe this line moved back too many points. Found a +10 at -115 alt on Fanatics. It was already a weird line given each team’s performances against South Florida. The books held it at -7.5, which I assumed was a fair number, before pushing it back to -9.5 Thursday afternoon. I understand Florida is in a bad spot. Billy is likely gone but I believe this is their last game before completely “checking out”. Lagway tossed 5 picks against LSU, setting the Tigers up with field position most drives. The Florida defense still managed to keep them in the game throughout. Gators will need to find a way to dial up pressure on defense, as they have only generated one sack throughout 3 games. Miami’s O-line has done a great job of keeping a clean pocket for Beck. Beck tossed 3 INTs against Florida’s defensive scheme last year at Georgia. The atmosphere should have little effect as Florida just played in Death Valley at night last weekend. The Gator offensive line can hold up against Miami’s lethal front. Miami stuffed ND’s rushing attack. Can DJ Lagway bounce back? I think so. He needs to bring some life back into his stock after last week’s performance. We saw ND QB CJ Carr have some success in the 4th quarter against this secondary. Everyone believes Florida’s dead. I will give them one more chance.

Washington -19.5 -110

• Washington #1 in EPA / rush. Wazzu ranks 8th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Cougars had a terrible showing last weekend, where they were dismantled by North Texas. I expect a better showing at home for this rivalry game, but Washington should be too much. Jonah Coleman is one of the best backs in the country. The Huskies’ RB has already racked up 300 yards and 7 TDs across 2 games. Fresh off a bye, they have been prepping for revenge for 2 weeks. State had a late stand last season to escape Seattle with a win.

Southern Miss +3.5 -115

• Buying back with USM here as I believe La Tech has caught too much steam. La Tech has love from beating NMSU 49-14 one week after holding LSU to only 23 points. However, the Bulldogs scored 22 unanswered in the 4th to put NMSU away and LSU offense has shown to have problems. This will be USM’s first road game, which is worrisome but Braylon Braxton has the talents to leave Ruston with a W.

California / San Diego State u48.5 -105

• California #22 in net EPA/play on defense. San Diego State ranks #24. Both offenses rank outside the top 90 in net EPA/play on offense. Cal should be able to handle the Aztecs pretty easily. The pace should stay under control throughout.

Michigan State / USC o55.5 -110

• Michigan State will struggle against USC’s passing attack. Trojans likely score at will. Chiles looks improved. He is dynamic and capable of leading Michigan State to 17-21 points against an improved USC defense.

FULL CARD LISTED: (check back for updates)

Arkansas / Memphis o61.5

Clemson -16.5

North Texas +3

UNLV ML

Tennessee -37.5

Notre Dame -24.5

James Madison -9.5

Buffalo -6

Ole Miss -11.5

UNC / UCF u48.5

Mississippi State -20.5

Temple / Ga Tech o51.5

FIU -3.5

Florida +10

Washington -19.5

Southern Miss +3.5

East Carolina +8.5 & ML

California / San Diego State u48.5

Michigan State / USC o55.5

FCS

South Florida is the FBS vs FCS spread pick this week. The Bulls have played a tough first three games against Boise, Florida, and Miami. This will be the first opportunity this season to “run it up” against an opponent ahead of the bye week next weekend. SC State hung with South Carolina in the first half before the Gamecocks pulled away. Golesh will kick the offense into high gear.

I also like Ohio to cover the large number.

BIG GAMES

Texas Tech @ Utah

• Whose idea was it to have a 10am local time kick? 1H under? Texas Tech’s offense is really explosive and will try to hit big plays. Utah’s defense does a good job of preventing the big plays. Utah’s offense will trust their offensive line to move the chains. Texas Tech’s defensive line vs Utah’s huge offensive line will be a fun matchup. We know Tech’s d-line can get after the QB but we do not know much about their run defense yet due to quick blowouts. Elevation will not affect Texas Tech. Utah is very good at home. We have yet to see either team play good competition. Utah 30-27

SMU @ TCU

• TCU’s offense has looked very good. Now the quality of opponent isn’t great, but they have done their part. I believe TCU’s defense has a few issues that opponents have yet to exploit. Kelvin Jennings can exploit them. SMU is 0-3 ATS and has not looked great, but they should be able to get up for this rivalry game. I’m not sure if either defense can stop the opposing offense. Lean SMU on spread and over. It’s a chalky bet, but I’m not sure how it doesn’t hit. TCU 34-31

Michigan @ Nebraska

• This is the largest game Nebraska has had in years. The environment will be rocking. I give Nebraska the edge, but they have struggled to stop the run. Huskers EPA / rush on defense ranks 126th in the country. Michigan’s offense EPA / rush ranks 27th. Michigan’s lone TD against Oklahoma in week 2 was a 75 yard break away TD. Outside of that, the offense did not do much. Nebraska will have to unleash Raiola if they expect to win this game. Mateer tossed for 270 against UM’s secondary. Should be a close game down to the wire. Tough two road environments for Underwood. Had Nebraska originally, but no play from me. Nebraska 23-20.

Auburn @ Oklahoma

• Jackson Arnold returns. I’m not sure if Auburn will have an answer for OU’s defense. The rushing attack is elite, but I believe the Sooners will have an answer for that. Venables will know Arnold’s tendencies and game plan accordingly. Auburn allowed 419 passing yards to Sawyer Robertson. I like OU here. The home field, Heisman QB, and game planning against former QB gives them the advantage. OU 27-13