Hello all, welcome back

I apologize for publishing late this week. It was an extremely busy week for me, which put me behind schedule. I didn’t hit any openers last Sunday. Most lines should still be available.

Ignore the grammatical mistakes as I am typing this up late at night.

Friday – November 7th

USC -14 -105 ✅

0.5u: Tulane / Memphis o53.5 -110 ✅

Saturday – November 8th

Colorado / WVU u53.5 -110

• Colorado’s defense has been dismantled the last two weeks against Utah & Arizona. I feel like this is a good week for them to show up against a WVU offense that struggles to find success through the air. WVU Freshman QB, Scotty Fox, has improved since taking over the starting job but WVU’s offense still ranks 126th in EPA/Pass and 109th in EPA/Rush. Colorado will also be rolling out a freshman at QB in Julian Lewis. He connected on a big play last week but only completed 50% of his passes outside of that. Deion has relieved play calling duties from the OC and passed it onto the TE coach. Noon ET kick for Colorado. Hopefully the pace doesn’t get out of hand here. 27-20 WVU.

Penn State +14.5 -105

• I was staying away due to obvious reasons, but I believe PSU can keep up in the trenches. Allen and Singleton may even find success on the ground here. The market steamed PSU last weekend to +17 on the road against Ohio State. Now we are getting +14.5 at home against Indiana. (OSU is -3.5 vs Indiana on a neutral then factor in HFA) They only trailed by 3 at halftime before being shutout in the 2nd half. Indiana’s star WR, Elijah Sarratt is listed questionable with a hamstring injury. His 10 TDs leads the Big Ten and ranks 2nd in the country. IU should overpower in the end, but I’ll take the points, 31-20.

Texas Tech + Georgia + Alabama ML +110

• 3 7+ point favorites that I have a hard time seeing lose. I could see State giving UGA some trouble, but the Dawgs should be too much. I don’t see LSU slowing down Alabama’s offense. Tech’s atmosphere and elite run defense should put BYU’s freshman QB, Bear Bachmeier in a tough spot. Alabama will be at home with two weeks of prep. I love targeting DeBoerMs teams post bye week. LSU has been a mess since the A&M game. The administration’s focus is elsewhere. Alabama desperately needs to find a rushing attack before it costs them down the stretch. Jam Miller hasn’t eclipsed 30 yards in a game since his injury against Missouri. Texas Tech 34-17. Georgia 31-24. Alabama 27-20.

Eastern Michigan -2 -110

• Bowling Green has offensive issues. They fired their OC this week. QB Drew Pyne returned from injury last week and posted a 7/16 for 52 yards line against Buffalo. Since the Toldeo upset a month ago, they have failed to score a TD in two games and only managed 21 points against a bad Kent State defense. EMU has shown some fight over the last month with a win against NIU and solid showings against Miami (OH) and Ohio. They had a bye week to prep while this will be the 5th consecutive game for Bowling Green. EMU

Maryland +2.5 -110

• I feel as if the market is overreacting to Maryland’s blowout loss to Indiana. Prior to that, the Terps had lost 3 very close games to Washington, Nebraska, and UCLA. Rutgers offense has taken a step back as they have only managed 20+ points in one of their last 4 games. Maryland’s defense is a solid unit, ranking 18th in EPA/Pass and 37th in EPA/Rush. Their offense has not been the best, but Rutgers will be one of the worst defensive teams they have faced this season. Maryland 31-20.

Missouri / Texas A&M u48.5 -105

• Missouri has had a bye week to prep the offense without QB Beau Pribula. Backup Matt Zollers entered the game against Vandy and played well, finishing 14/23 for 138 yards. Missouri’s offensive line should be able to hold up A&M’s elite defensive line to an extent. Zollers will be without a big target in TE Brett Norfleet, who leads the team with 5 TD receptions. A&M’s defense will key in on Hardy and make the true freshman making his first start being them through the air. I don’t really see it happing as Zollers cannot extend plays with his legs. If I am Mizzou, I am wanting to operate at a slow pace to keep this game as low-scoring as possible. A&M’s offense has managed 30+ points in every game this season besides one. Their offensive is explosive, but this is their 3rd consecutive SEC road game (bye week in between). Missouri’s defense is a strong unit, ranking 5th in success rate. This total will likely come down to if the defenses can limit explosive plays on the ground. I like the chances. A&M 31-17

UConn +9.5 -110

• Tough spot for Duke. Road non-conference game after a late win in Death Valley against Clemson. They also have UVA coming to town next weekend. UConn’s lack of quality opponents worry me, but they have the offense to keep up in this one. With these two QBs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one shoot out. Duke 45-38.

Kansas +5.5 -110

• I like Jalon Daniels and the Kansas offense to find success against an Arizona defense that really hasn’t been tested much. Arizona’s strength of schedule ranks 2nd to last in the Big 12: W against a struggling KSU early, blowout loss @ ISU, blowout win vs Oklahoma St, BYU and Houston L’s, Colorado win last weekend. Kansas does struggle against the pass. Arizona likes to throw it with QB Noah Fifita, but their EPA/Pass ranks 96th. Kansas has been tested in their 3 road matchups: Missouri, UCF, and Texas Tech. Jayhawks find a way on the road. Kansas 27-24.

Coastal Carolina -7 -115

• Coastal has been on a roll with three straight outright wins as an underdog. QB Samara Collier has really sparked a match in this offense since taking over the starting job. He can struggle at times passing, but teams have had a tough time slowing him down on the ground. Georgia State has yet to beat a FBS opponent this season. They haven’t played in 16 days and will be hitting the road against a team that has somewhat found a groove. Coastal 34-24

Auburn +6.5 -110

• Yeah, Auburn has burned me a few times this season but I have had this matchup circled for a few weeks. The Tigers are elite at stopping the run, ranking 1st in EPA/Rush. Vandy did not have their usual rushing success against Texas and Missouri. Auburn will make Pavia beat them through the air. Outside of the garbage time comeback last weekend, he hasn’t tossed for over 200 in another SEC game. Can Auburn find offensive success? I’m not banking on it, but Freeze held that offense back. Sources have said that Durkin has overhauled Auburn’s offensive preparation. It may come with some learning curves, but anything will be an improvement from what I watched last weekend. This game should stay low scoring. I just think Vandy has a tough time on the ground. Sounds crazy, but may sprinkle Auburn ML. Auburn 20-17.

Clemson ML -120

• Lol what a matchup. This game had much higher stakes in the preseason. Clemson’s offense is much better with Cade Klubnik healthy under center. He was excellent against Duke, finishing 27/36 for 385 yards passing. They honestly should have won, but numerous calls that did not go their way. Seminoles have struggled on defense, ranking 70th in EPA/Pass, 79th in EPA/Rush, and 74th in success rate against the pass. Klubnik should play well here. FSU finally snapped their losing skid with a 48-7 blowout win over Wake Forest. Wake shot themselves in the foot a few times with penalties. Florida State has only played two road games this season: @ Stanford and @ Virginia. Both losses. Can Castellanos and FSU’s offense mimic Duke’s passing attack? Does Clemson’s defense finally rise to their level of talent? Doubt it for both. Death Valley should show up for a night game and the Tigers are desperate for a win. Lean over. Clemson 34-27.

Navy +27.5 -105

• I was wanting a 28 here and as soon as I locked +27.5, +28 came available. Navy’s defense will obviously struggle here but I do not expect them to win. According to the weather report, South Bend will be experiencing 40 degree rain at the time of kick. Navy’s SOS does not compare to ND’s but their offense may be able to find success running the ball in these conditions. The Midshipmen rank 2nd in EPA/Rush and 6th in offensive success rate. ND will also be without their defensive captain in DT Donovan Hinish. ND 38-17

Nebraska ML -105

• TJ Lateef will step in at QB for Nebraska as Dylan Raiola suffered a season-ending injury in last week’s game against USC. Lateef is not the same quality passer but he can do something Raiola cannot, create with his legs. UCLA’s hype train hit a speed bump two weeks ago in a bad blowout loss to Indiana. Despite the Raiola injury, Nebraska should have the advantage in the trenches. Huskers 24-17.

UNLV -4.5 -108

• The market has faded UNLV the last few weeks against Boise & New Mexico. The line also moved towards Colorado State here, but I believe this is a good spot to buy low on the Rebels. UNLV has a very explosive rushing offense, something that CSU has struggled against this season. The Rams do not have the same quality offense as Boise & New Mexico. I don’t see them keeping up if UNLV finds success on the ground. UNLV 41-27

San Diego State / Hawaii u49 -110

• I have been backing the Aztecs the last few weeks, but always hesitate when a team makes the trip to the island with no bye week. SDSU’s defense is legit, ranking top 10 in multiple defensive metrics. Both offenses in this game have exploded in a few games while also flopping in a few games. Weather will be warm, but there is a chance of windy rain at the time of kickoff. Aztecs survive a scare here. 24-20

Leans:

Southern Miss -4.5

JMU / Marshall o54

La Tech -5.5

Kentucky +3.5

Texas State -3 (may add to card)

Oregon State -20.5

Week 10 Recap

Regression finally hit over the last two weeks. That was the unluckiest 3:30 slate of my entire betting career.

• California has the cover and throws a pick 6 last play of the game.
• Georgia kneels down at the 1 yard line instead of covering.
• Boise’s QB gets stretchered off the field a few plays into the game.
• Louisville scores with a minute left to cover against Virginia Tech.

Oh well, swings will happen when you bet in large volume. Let’s bounce back.