Hello everyone, welcome back.

We managed a huge bounce back week last weekend. Let’s keep it rolling.

W11: 13-4 (+8.3u)

YTD: 130-101-3 (+22.55u)

I tried to go into as much depth as possible. If you bet a light card, scroll to the bottom for my 5 favorite plays.

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Tuesday – November 12th

Akron -4.5 -112 ❌

0.5u: Western Michigan ML -108 ✅

Thursday – November 14th

Troy +12.5 -105 ❌

• Market moved in our favor, but it didn’t matter. One of the worst offensive showings I have seen from a team this season.

Friday – November 15th

Clemson +3.5 -114 ✅

• Sunday release. I am going back to the well as we backed Clemson last weekend in a big win against FSU. The defense finally stepped up. Clemson sacked FSU 6 times last Saturday. Louisville’s offensive line is a problem. I expect a similar Brohm to have a similar game plan as he did against Miami (get the ball out quick before the pressure). It worked, but Beck also gave them 4 INTs. Cade Klubnik has been playing well, completing 78% of his passes since the Syracuse game. More importantly, he has only turned the ball over once in that time frame. We saw Cal’s freshman QB, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, toss for a season-high 323 yards in last weekend’s win over Louisville. Teams have found success against Clemson through the air; however, I do not expect Miller Moss to exploit them. Moss has committed 5 turnovers in their last 3 games. I do expect Louisville to come out in a night game at home with vengeance after the loss, but I like this matchup Clemson. I would lay the ML instead of anything under 3. Tigers 27-20.

Saturday – November 16th

Notre Dame -10.5 -115

• I honestly do not believe there is a huge difference between -10.5 & the current -12.5. Of course it could land in the middle, but it didn’t cross any key numbers so I would still play it. Pitt is on a 5 game winning streak, but let’s take a look at those opponents: Boston College, @ FSU, @ Syracuse, NC State, and @ Stanford. According to ESPN, Pitt’s strength of schedule is ranked 89th. That is the 3rd easiest SOS in the ACC, right in front of UNC and UVA. Notre Dame is on a 7 game win streak. Pitt’s rushing defense grades out well, but Jeremiah Love (6.4 YPC) and ND’s rushing attack will be the toughest test they have faced. CJ Carr will have success through the air. ND’s defense has found their form, allowing only 11.8 PPG since the Purdue game. Noon kick, so I am not too worried about the atmosphere. Notre Dame needs all the style points they can get. Lean over. Irish 41-20.
• Update: Pitt will be without their starting kicker. Could affect a few 4th down decisions.

Texas A&M -17 -115

• A&M’s defensive front should feast in this matchup. SC’s offensive line has allowed the 4th most sacks in all of CFB this season. A&M ranks 1st in team sacks. A&M is averaging 35.5 PPG across 6 SEC games. They have managed 30+ in every game regular season game besides one. I do not see SC being able to keep up. 38-13 A&M

Arkansas +5.5 -110

• The Battle for the Golden Boot. Arkansas needed the bye week last weekend. The Hogs committed a program-record 18 penalties for 193 yards against Mississippi State. LSU’s defense is their strong point, but they struggled against QBs that can make plays with their legs: Marcel Reed 108 yards, Diego Pavia for 86 yards, Trinidad Chambliss for 71 yards. Taylen Green is one of the best rushing QBs in the country, ranking 6th amongst QBs in total rushing yards. Green also ranks 1st in yards of total offense per game (335.7). He was banged up against Mississippi State, but healed up over the bye week. RB Mike Washington is averaging 6.5 YPC and has achieved 100+ yards in 3/4 games since Petrino was hired as the interim. The Hogs have one of the best offensive lines in the entire country and will be getting 2 guys back that missed the Miss State game. LSU needs LB Whit Weeks back. He is listed as questionable for this game. Can the Tigers find success on offense? QB Garrett Nussemeier will start, but I expect to see plenty of Michael Van Buren. Nuss is immobile and struggles to throw the ball downfield. Reports have also came out this week that he suffered a set back with his abdominal injury this week in practice. LSU’s offensive line also grades as one of the worst in the SEC. The rushing attack ranks 127th in yards per game. It honestly seems they are trying to figure out if they can find anything for next season. LSU has only managed 30+ points in one game this season and it was against Southeastern Louisiana. Take away that game, and they In SEC games, they have managed: 20 vs FL, 19 vs OM, 20 vs SC, 24 vs Vandy, 25 vs A&M (garbage time score), & 9 vs Bama. Ark’s defense is bad but I’m not sure LSU can keep up. Early kick in Death Valley. Sprinkle Arkansas ML. Hogs 31-27
• Update: Nussemeier is doubtful. Van Buren will start.

WVU / Arizona State o47 -110

• Too low of a number. Both teams have went over this total in 7/9 games this season. ASU has went under the last two games without Leavitt, but Jeff Sims showed out in their last game against Iowa State. He collected 228 yards on 29 attempts while passing for 177. WVU’s defense ranks 101st in total yards allowed per game. Big 12 opponents are averaging 36 PPG against WVU. On the other side, WVU’s offense has improved with Scotty Fox comfortable under center. He has managed 200+ all purpose yards in their last 3 games. WVU is playing their 5th consecutive game while ASU had a bye week and extra prep with Sims running the offense. Both QBs are turnover-prone, which could set up some good field position. The 11:00am could bring a sluggish start, but again this is a low number. 31-17 ASU.

North Texas -17.5 -110

• I do not expect this to drop below the 17 number. North Texas is fresh off the bye week. QB Drew Mestemaker ranks 5th in passing yards per game and will face a UAB defense that has struggled against better competition. They have the Memphis win at home, but Memphis was without their QB for the majority of the game. The Blazers rank 118th in EPA pass, 98th in EPA/Rush, and 114th in defensive success rate. This will only be NT’s 4th road game this season, but they have averaged 44 PPG in 3 wins. I don’t see UAB forcing turnover or getting stops. The North Texas defense has also improved, as they have not allowed over 20 points since the South Florida blowout. I wouldn’t mind North Texas team total over 42.5. They need the style points. NT 51-24.

Marshall -6.5 -110

• This is now -7.5, but I would still lay it. I honestly believe you can alt this line for a big return if you wish. According to Sagarin, FEI, and PFF power rankings, Georgia State is a bottom 5 team in the country. Marshall is averaging 32.9 PPG this season and should find success on the ground and through the air. Their QB, Carlos Del Rio-Wilson leads the team in passing and rushing. He turned the ball over 4 times a few weeks ago at Coastal then struggled through the air against a stout JMU defense. This is a great bounce back spot against a Ga State defense that ranks 127th in EPA/Pass, 136th in EPA/Rush, and 127th in defensive success rate. GSU has the opportunity to find success on offense through their passing game. Marshall’s defense ranks 125th in EPA/Pass and 107th in success rate vs the pass. However, QB Cameran Brown was knocked out of the Coastal game and is currently listed as questionable. If he cannot go, it will be TJ Finley. Finley began the season as the starter, but has not started since October 11th. Monitor Brown’s status because Finley is a downgrade. If Brown plays, I would also lean over. Marshall TT o35.5 is also a solid look. Marshall 41-24.

Oklahoma / Alabama o45.5 -105

• Both teams have struggled to establish the run this season and I do not see it happening for either team in this matchup. OU ranks 92nd in rushing yards per game while Alabama ranks 120th. Over the last two games, OU has allowed 315 passing yards to Chambliss and 393 to Aguilar. Outside of those two, OU hasn’t really faced a passing threat. Simpson has tossed for 266.5 YPG against SEC opponents and Alabama has one of the best WR cores in the country. Can Bama’s offensive line give Simpson time against an elite Oklahoma pass rush? OU ranks 3rd nationally in sacks, but Bama has only allowed 3 sacks across their last 3 games. John Mateer made plays against Tennessee, finishing with his highest rushing total of the season. Alabama has struggled against QBs that can extend plays with their legs: Castellanos 78 yards, Pavia 58 yards, Pribula 62 yards, Sellers 67 yards. Alabama also struggles to generate pressure, ranking 70th in sacks. I know both teams are led by their defenses, but this is a low number. I honestly believe OU has a solid shot to pull off the upset, but I can’t pick it. Bama 26-23.

1.25u to win 1.14u: Duke -4 -110

• The ACC is a mess. Duke finding a way to win the conference despite 3 non-conference losses to Illinois, Tulane, and UConn would be the cherry on top. Virginia just finds a way to win games. They finally dropped one last week at home to Wake Forest after narrowly escaping the previous 5 games with wins. QB Chandler Morris was knocked out of the game, but he is expected to return for this game. It will come down to whether the Blue Devils can take care of the ball. In the 4 losses, Duke has committed 10 turnovers. In their 5 wins, Duke has committed one turnover. I believe Duke is the better team here and 4 is a short number at home. Virginia leads the ACC in turnovers forced. Duke QB Darian Mensah had his worst performance of the season against UConn. I like for him to bounce back and I believe Duke is the better team here. Duke 34-24.

Iowa +7 -115

• Iowa finally makes the trip to Southern California and the weather will follow. Rain and a high of 64 degrees. We know what Iowa’s game plan will be. The Hawkeyes have one of the best offensive line’s in the country. They also rank 16th in EPA/rush and 8th in success rate. USC’s has been vulnerable against the run. The Trojans defense rank 100th in EPA/Rush and 126th in success rate against the Rush. USC will likely stack the box, but I’m not sure it will work. Can Iowa slow down USC’s offense? This will be their toughest test this season. The Hawkeyes only allow 134 passing yards per game, ranking 3rd in EPA/Pass. USC averages 295 passing yards per game, ranking 2nd in EPA/Pass. USC survives 27-24.

1.25u to win 1.1u: Tennessee TT o49.5 -114

• Final scores in Tennessee non-conference games against non P4 opponents since Josh Heupel has been Head Coach.
• 2021: 38-6 vs Bowling Green, 56-0 vs TN Tech, 60-14 vs South Alabama.
• 2022: 59-10 vs Ball State, 63-6 vs Akron, 65-24 vs UT Martin.
• 2023: 30-13 vs Austin Peay, 45-14 vs UTSA, 59-3 vs UConn.
• 2024: 69-3 vs UTC, 71-0 vs Kent St, 56-0 UTEP.
• 2025: 72-17 vs ETSU, 56-24 UAB.
• AVG 57.1 PPG. Over 49.5 in 10/14.
• New Mexico State’s defense ranks 83rd in EPA/Pass, 130th EPA/Rush, and 94th in defensive success rate. They haven’t played a single team close to Tennessee’s offensive caliber. I do expect the Vols to get up early and allow George MacIntyre to take over at QB. If that happens, I expect Tennessee to continue to throw it around late. Look for the defense to create a few turnovers as well. Vols 66-17.

North Carolina +6.5 -111

• With a 38.5 total, points will be tough to come by. Bill’s team has made improvements over the last month. UNC has won their last two games and very easily could have won the two before that against Virginia and California. Wake has won 2/3 against the top of the ACC (UVA & SMU) with the one loss being a blowout against Florida State. Wake should win but I like UNC to keep it close in a game that should not feature much offense. 17-13 final.

FIU +3 -110

• Liberty has not performed well on the road. They are 1-3 and have not had a road trip since 10/8. RB Evan Dickens has received 50 carries over the last two games. Look for Liberty to feed him. FIU has been up and down this season, but finally put it together in a 56-30 win last weekend at MTSU. backup QB, Joe Pesansky stepped in for Keyone Jenkins and delivered 257 yards passing for 4 TDs. He is listed as the starter in this matchup on the depth chart. FIU has been on the road for 4 of their last 5 games and has not won a home game since 9/13. These teams are pretty similar in the advanced stats. I’ll take the 3 with FIU, but I believe they give the home crowd a win. Lean over as well. FIU 33-27.

Washington -16.5 -110

• Washington performs much better at home. The Huskies have won 24 of their last 25 games at Husky Stadium. This is a good opportunity to get back into the groove after an upset loss to Wisconsin last weekend. QB Demond Williams should have a bounce back performance against a Purdue team that has yet to face a dual-threat QB. Purdue has also yet to travel out West for a Big Ten matchup.
• RB Jonah Coleman and WR1 Denzel Boston are questionable. Coleman is one of the best RBs in the country and will be a game-time decision. He was banged up headed into the Wisconsin game and only received 5 carries for two yards. Boston was carted off the field against Wisconsin, but returned in the 2nd half. He has one of the highest target shares in the country. In my opinion, he should play but both are worth monitoring.
• Update: Coleman is playing, but not starting. Boston is out.

UNLV -6 -110

• The market has been fading UNLV the last few weeks so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line tick down before kickoff. You have to slow down the run or score 50+ if you wish to beat UNLV. Utah State’s defense ranks 115th in rushing yards per game, 130th in EPA/Rush, and 135th in success rate against the run. UNLV’s offense ranks 18th in rushing yards per game, 5th in EPA/Rush, and 21st in success rate on the ground. They are averaging 463.4 yards per game, which is 16th in the country. In their 42-10 road win against Colorado State, they out-gained the rams 571-292. The struggling defense finally showed some life. UNLV’s defense ranks 131st in yards allowed per game, 132nd in EPA/rush, and 7th in success rate. Luckily, Utah State’s offense ranks 79th in EPA/Rush and 118th in success rate on the ground. Utah State is 5-0 at home and 0-4 on the road. They are allowing 44 points per game in those road losses.
• Update: UNLV’s Jai’den Thomas is listed as questionable. He popped up on the injury report Thursday. Thomas is 2nd in the country in rushing yards per carry.

Florida State -13.5 -115

• If Norvell can manage a bowl game, I believe he saves his job for one more year. It has been a rough season, but the Seminoles have underperformed their numbers. They rank 3rd in total yards per game and average 36.7 PPG, which ranks 17th. They rank top 11th nationally in rushing yards per game and 3rd down %. Virginia Tech’s only offensive hope is on the ground (9th in EPA/Rush 110th in EPA/Pass). FSU defense ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed per game, 14th in EPA/Rush, and 15th in success rate against the run. It’s a night game at Doak Campbell and Norvell will run the score through the roof if he is given an opportunity. FSU 38-17.
• I had to double check, but this is only Tech’s 3rd away game of the season.

TCU / BYU o50.5 -115

• I am fine with anything under 51.5 here. I expect lots of passing in this one as both defense are solid against the run. TCU is also without starting RB, Kevorian Barnes, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hoover drop back 50+ times again this week. I am expecting BYU’s offense to bounce back at home after being stuffed against Texas Tech last weekend. QB Bear Bachmeier was held to his 2nd lowest rushing total of the season. RB LJ Martin should be back to full health. I also believe TCU will have trouble stopping Kingston & Roberts on the outside. BYU 31-27.

San Diego State -1.5 -110

• After moving directly up to -3, this line has ticked back down to -1.5. I’m not exactly sure why. QB Maddux Madsen is out after being carted off against Fresno State. Once he left, Boise found little success offensively. On top of that, Boise will also be without their two best WRs. San Diego State is back after the death trip to the island. I wrote up in last week’s under play that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Aztecs given the spot. Now they are back home, and focused on an opponent that they have had circled the entire season. The Aztecs have the best defense in the Mountain West, ranking 7th in EPA/Pass, 9th in EPA/Rush, and 3rd in success rate. They are only allowing 262.3 yards per game, which ranks 6th in the country. They have completed three shutouts and opposing offenses are only averaging 7.75 PPG in games at Snapdragon Stadium. Yes, they struggle offensively, but they should be able to find some success running the ball against a Boise defense that ranks 112th in EPA/Rush and 88th in rushing yards allowed per game. Aztecs bounce back at home. 24-10.

5 Favorite Plays

• Duke -4
• Tennessee TT o49.5
• San Diego State -1.5
• Florida State -13.5
• TCU / BYU o50.5

Moneyline Upset Sprinkles

• Arkansas +180
• Iowa +200
• North Carolina +190
• Baylor +280
• Air Force +250

• Northwestern +350

Other Leans:

Texas A&M -17.5 (may tease this down)

Ole Miss -11.5 (staying away. Line opened -14 shot up to -17 then back all the way down to -11.5)

Air Force +7.5

Baylor +8.5 (terrible matchup on paper but big game at home after the bye. Utah has disappointed a few times on the road)

La Tech / Wash St u44 (meant to hit this Sunday at 47.5 but forgot about it)

Kentucky -21.5

Kansas State / Oklahoma State o50.5