2-1 last night.

Arizona State decided to go with a bullpen game and hold Carlon until today. It did not work out well for them. Florida and Arkansas come through.

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YTD spreadsheet: College Baseball Tracker

4/17 Plays

Card is final. Let’s have a Friday. Pick 3 is at the bottom. Check notes at the end.

LSU +100 DK ❌

• It’s do or die for the Tigers. As Chris Burke said on the broadcast last night, “LSU always seems to find it around tax day.” Casen Evans advanced numbers are solid. I am expecting a big outing from him tonight against an elite lineup.

DBU -115 DK ❌

• Liam Watt has pitched well since sliding into the Friday starter role. I hate fading Ben Blair as he is the best pitcher in the CUSA, but Jax State roughed him up last weekend with 7 ER on 9 hits. Liberty’s lineup is hot, but they have shown to go flat at times this year. I give DBU the advantage offensively.

1.5u: Coastal + WVU + FSU +114 CZR ❌

• Three home favorites with pitching advantages that should handle business today. ND is holding Radel until tomorrow.

1.25u: Oregon + Texas MLP +122 CZR ✅ 1.53u

• Despite the travel, Oregon should be able to handle Illinois. Texas moved Volantis into the Friday role.

Texas Tech -130 DK ❌

• Jackson Burns has been the bright spot for this Texas Tech pitching staff. Over each of his last three starts (TCU, Houston, and WVU) , Burns has gone 6+ innings averaging 6.33 K’s per game. Utah is without ace Colter McAlleny after he was suspended in last week’s game against Arizona State. I would also lean over.

Cal State Fullerton / Oregon St u9.5 -130 B365 ✅

• Two good arms on the mound with Mikiah Negrate going for CSF while Dax Whitney goes for Oregon State. Neither offense has a wRC+ over 100.

1u: Ohio State +2.5 +102 ✅ 1.02u

0.5u: OSU ML +250 FD ❌

• I don’t see any reason for Purdue to be -300 here. Ohio State has been playing solid ball over the last few weekends. This entire series will likely feature shootouts. If the Buckeyes can get to Purdue’s bullpen early, I like our chances.

1.25u: USC / Nebraska u10.5 +102 FD ❌

• I originally misread the wind direction (AI lets me down again) but I don’t believe it will matter. Two offenses that do not have tons of pop. Both pitchers have very good numbers. Mason Edwards owns a 1.36 ERA with a 1.49 SIERA and 44.4 K%. Cooper Katskee has a 3.27 ERA with a 2.53 SIERA and 29.3 K%. Ty Horn should be available in the bullpen for the Huskers.

OK State / Kansas o13.5 -125 FD (PPD to tmr)

• Wind is blowing out in a hitter friendly ballpark. Ethan Lund has struggled the last few outings. Both offenses hit it well.

Kentucky / Vanderbilt u12.5 -102 FD ✅

• I expect Jaxson Jelkin to bounce back after a rough outing at Auburn last week. Connor Fennel’s ERA is at 5.20, but his SIERA sits at 2.16. I am expecting the ERA to regress to the mean. Hopefully Vandy’s bullpen doesn’t blow up.

Florida State -1.5 -115 B365 ✅

• Adding to FSU here. Big advantage on the mound.

Georgia Tech -130 B365 ❌

• GT’s lineup is one of the best in the country. The Jackets own a .365 BA, .469 wOBA, and 161 wRC+. Jason DeCaro will go for UNC. DeCaro is an experienced pitcher but has only owned a 20% K rate this season. I am not sure pitching to contact will work out against an offense like GT. Tate McKee is by far Tech’s best starter. Mason Patel will be available in the bullpen. UNC has dropped their last two game 1s to BC and Clemson.

TCU / Baylor o11.5 +110 B365 ✅ 1.1u

• Wind is blowing out. Too low of a number for me.

Arkansas / Georgia u13.5 -130 FD ✅

• Too high of a number. DK released 10. Wind blowing in similar to last night.

Cal Poly / UCSD u11 -115 DK ❌

• Griffin Naess vs Steele Murdock. Murdock struck out 17 last weekend against UCSB. Naess has been a staple for Cal Poly the last two seasons.

Miss St + Southern Miss MLP -122 CZR ✅

• I believe this is the weekend Miss State figures it out. SC’s much has much improved recently, but Miss St’s lineup gives them a pretty large advantage in this matchup. USM has advantage on the mound with Grayden Harris. Texas St’s Wade Cooper has a solid ERA, but does not go deep into games.

Duke +164 (to win 1u) FD ❌

• I am just not sold on BC. Duke has the lineup advantage and I like Aiden Weaver on the mound. AJ Colarusso has been great for BC, but I expect regression soon.

Arizona +190 (to win 1u) FD ❌

• After starting the season slow, Arizona has been playing better baseball. The Wildcats took the series in Lupton last weekend against TCU (who won the series @ Kansas State). Owen Kramkowski has only allowed 8 ERs in his 4 home starts.

Clemson +108 FD ✅

• It’s do or die for Clemson. Tigers should have the advantage on the mound with Michael Sharman. They played better baseball last weekend against UNC. If they are going to take a game in Charlottesville, this will be their best opportunity.

Washington -113 FD ❌

• I just believe Washington is the better team. Aidan Donovan’s ERA sits at 2.94 but he owns a 4.29 SIERA with only a 16.1 K%. Noah Kenney has been solid all season for the Huskies. Washington’s offense has a wRC+ 20 points higher than Michigan State’s. I have this UW -130

Pick 3:

USC Nebraska u10.5

LSU ML

Coastal + WVU + FSU MLP

NOTE: You can try to middle Utah / Texas Tech total if you would like. It is 17.5 on FD and 13.5 on DK.

NOTE: We snagged some insane value with FD posting totals before DK. Here is what I would play each to:

Kentucky / Vandy u11

Kansas / OK State o15

Arkansas / Georgia u11.5

TCU / Baylor o14

Cal St Fullerton / Oregon St u9

Cal Poly / UCSD u10

USC / Nebraska u9.5

I would not recommend laying anything past these numbers.

NOTE: I lean TN ML tonight. However, I am a huge Vols fan and every time I have backed them this season has resulted in a blown lead. I will not have them on the card, but I have them -130 tonight against Ole Miss.