Good morning,

Welcome to the final weekend of the regular season. It has been a journey and postseason baseball is right around the corner. With conference tournaments beginning on Tuesday and Wednesday, teams elect to play their final series from Thursday-Saturday to get an extra rest day.

2-0 last night. Let’s finish the season strong.

Here was my updated projected Field of 64 headed into the final regular season series:

5/14 Plays

1.5u: Mississippi State -105 CZR (play to -120) ✅

• I like Miss St this weekend, especially with Valincius going today. Both teams are fighting for a top 8 national seed. Aiden Sims is out this weekend, which should make a limited TAMU pen even more thin.

1.5u: South Alabama -110 DK (play to -130) ❌

• Arkansas State peaked too early. South Alabama has been a steady, solid team throughout the entire season. Mitchell Heer will be throwing today. I will back the team playing better ball with their ace on the mound.

Ole Miss -115 DK (would play to -135) ❌

• I’m still not fully sold on Alabama. Ole Miss is fighting for a host spot, while the Tide have already comfortably locked a top 16.

San Diego State -135 DK (play to -150) ✅

• I have backed Rhett Lettow multiple times this season and have no reason to stop now. SDSU is one win away from clinching the MW regular season title.

Xavier +100 DK ❌

• Xavier is at home tied for first in the Big East with St John’s and UConn. Ryan Piech has the edge in ERA, xFIP, and SIERA.

Indiana +110 DK ✅

• Neubeck is the only arm I would trust from IU. He gives Indiana the advantage on the mound today as he leads Ben Plumley in ERA, xFIP, BB/9, and SIERA. Indiana’s offense is has the edge in batting average, wRC+, and wOBA

Florida -150 CZR ✅

• King day 👑. The SEC’s best starter will take the mound against a LSU team playing in meaningless games. LSU will be saving everything they can to gear up for a deep run in Hoover. I wouldn’t be surprised if Casan Evans starts or throws here for the Tigers, but he will have a short leash.

Tennessee -135 CZR ✅

• As we saw last weekend against Dylan Volantis, Tennessee hits LHP much better than RHP. Cam Johnson is hit or miss and I believe the Vols lineup is swinging it well enough to rattle him. Tegan Kuhns has been one of the best starters in the country the last few starts. This game will be played at a AAA stadium instead of OU’s usual home field.

Nebraska -145 CZR ✅

• Christian Jasa gives Nebraska a big advance here. The books are higher on Minnesota than I am. They were heavy favorites all weekend against Michigan and lost 2 out of 3.

1.5u: OKST + WF + Oregon St +107 CZR ❌

• Almost bumped this to 2u but decided not to. All 3 should roll tonight.

1.25u: Arizona St + Kansas +101 CZR ✅

• Carlon is not going for ASU, but I don’t believe it matters. Sun Devils are sitting in the 40s for RPI, and really could use a sweep this weekend to solidify their spot in the tournament. I like Kansas to get right after a tough showing last weekend. BYU’s offense has fallen off and I don’t believe they can keep up with the Jayhawks.

1.25u: Texas St + Ga Tech -123 DK ✅

• Texas St is another bubble team that needs to have a good showing this weekend. I am not a believer in Boston College. Georgia Tech’s lineup will likely inflict damage after dropping the midweek to Mercer.

Wichita State +135 DK ❌

• USF is in last place in the American and unlikely to make the conference tournament. Wichita needs to win here to solidify their spot in the AAC tournament. Matthew Cuccias will get the ball for Wichita. Wichita has the advantage in nearly every offensive and pitching statistical category.

Arkansas -125 ❌

• Hunter Dietz day. Arkansas is playing for a chance to earn a host seed. Kentucky will likely win at least one game here. They are sitting at 12 SEC wins and 13 has been the magic number to make the tournament; however, I don’t believe they can match up with Dietz.

Iowa +110 DK ✅

• Purdue is playing for an at-large bid, but I am higher on Iowa than their record shows. Maddux Freese was bumped to game one. He has been the Hawkeyes best starter. I have this priced closer to a pk.

Virginia -130 DK ✅

• This game may turn into a shootout but I trust Zatkowski much more than I do any of Louisville’s arms. Cavs need a solid bounce back weekend after dropping that home series to California.

Cincinnati + UTSA -120 ❌

• UAB has been sliding over the past few weeks. I like UTSA to bounce back at home after dropping last week series to Memphis. Nate Taylor day for Cincinnati, who still has potential to snag a host spot if a few things fall their way.

0.5u: NC State +200 FD ❌

• My underdog of the day. NC state usually gets up for this rivalry series. UNC is the better team with the better pitcher on the mound, but sometimes that does not matter. I have this priced at +160.

App St / Georgia St o12.5 -111 FD ✅

• Wind out at 13+ mph in a hitter’s park with two teams with below average pitching staffs. Hopefully Georgia State can provide a few runs here.

WVU / TCU u10 -115 (9) ✅

• Tommy LaPour vs Ian Korn. LaPour looked good in his 3 shutout innings against Utah, as TCU pitched a shutout. TCU is careful, but I expect his outing to go longer if he is dealing. Frogs need to win one in Morgantown.

Rice / Tulane u10 -115 (9) ❌

• Trusting Tulane’s pitching is risky, but the wind is blowing in heavy here in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Rice cannot hit and often finds themselves in lower scoring games. Neither offense has a wRC+ over 100 and rank 255 & 265 in batting average.

Cal St Fullerton / UCSD u11.5 -115 DK (10) ❌

• Both Mikiah Negrete and Steele Murdock have a good SIERA and xFIP. Murdock is an extreme strikeout pitcher who sometimes loses control. Neither offense has a wRC+ over 100 and both rank outside the top 250 in batting average.

Cal Poly / Long Beach u11 -115 DK (9) ❌

• Both team’s have wRC’s that rank outside the top 100. I don’t see Long Beach scoring many runs here. Pitcher-friendly ballpark.

VT / Clemson o11.5 -122 FD (12.5) ❌

• Wind is pushing out pretty hard here. I highly doubt Clemson overuses any of their arms due to them having to make a run in the ACC tournament next week as a bottom seed. Renfrow has been hit or miss for Va Tech.

Georgia / Auburn o11 -115 (12) ❌

• I believe UGA’s offense is good enough to hit this number on their own against any pitcher in the country. Auburn would like to keep this as low-scoring as possible but I don’t see it. Wind is slightly out in a small ballpark.

Penn St / Maryland o12.5 -113 FD ✅

• The wind is slightly blowing in here, but I am not sure it matters. Maryland’s home games often turn into shootouts in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. Every single Friday home game has gone over this number. Cristofer Cespedes (Maryland’s SP) has put together b2b solid outings against Michigan and Rutgers. However, Penn St’s offense grades out better than both of those. I don’t am expecting Maryland to hang a decent number against Fitzgerald and both bullpens falling apart.

Pick 3:

Miss St ML

South Alabama ML

OKST + WF + Oregon St MLP