Good morning! Welcome to Omaha.

This season has flown by. It feels like I was just breaking down preseason content yesterday.

I wish I was making the trip this season. With a baby on the way next month, I decided to stay home. I hope to be back next year. It is a great trip that I would highly recommend to any baseball fan.

My results for the CWS by year:

2025: 8-5 (+3.7u)

2024: 13-12 (+3.51u)

2023: 19-6-1 (+12.4u)

2022: 12-8 (+3.52u)

Among my preseason future bets, 4 are still remaining:

Ole Miss (+5000)

North Carolina (+2200)

Texas (+2000)

Georgia (+1800)

I believe these are the 4 best teams in the field of 8. Of course, they manage to match up in game one. Let’s hope one brings it home for the 4th straight season.

Game Breakdowns

Reminder: Charles Schwab Field has a -2.62 R/G vs the average.

West Virginia vs Troy

• West Virginia heads to Omaha as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Mountaineers dismantled Cal Poly in the Supers, outscoring them 29-3 across the two games. Chansen Cole will get the ball for WVU. Cole has been phenomenal as of late. He went 7 innings with 11 strikeouts against Cal Poly in Supers and 6 innings with 10 punch outs against Binghamton in Regionals. Cole’s fastball is not overpowering, but he locates it very well and utilizes a nice mix.

• WVU’s lineup sets up well for Charles Schwab. They are a team that manufactures offensive production without the long ball. The mountaineers are hitting .307 as a team with only 55 HRs on the season. To compare, Georgia has 174 HRs on the season. WVU finished second in the Big 12 with 115 SBs on the season. Troy was middle of the pack in the Sun Belt in SBA%. Gavin Kelly and Armani Guzman headline this lineup. Kelly is a potential #1 overall pick for the 2027 MLB Draft.
• What a postseason run it has been for Skylar Meade and Troy. The Trojans won out of the loser’s bracket in Gainesville and had no trouble taking down Little Rock in Supers. They come into Omaha as one of the hottest offenses in the country, averaging 10.57 runs per game this postseason. 15 HRs across 7 games. The lineup has pop. Jimmi Janicki was the Sun Belt Player of the Year and will be an early round pick in 2027. Jabe Boroff has been on fire. He has collected 17 of his 24 hits this season in postseason play, 7 of them being HRs. Benjamin Stubbs will get the ball in game one. Stubbs has been the staple for this rotation. He had a rough 4 game stretch in the middle, but has been consistent throughout the season. Stubbs isn’t going to go out there and strike out 10+ guys. He is going to throw strikes and trust his defense behind him.
• This WVU team reminds me a lot of Coastal from last season, which sets up well in Omaha. Lineup without tons of power but manufactures runs, really good starting pitching, and great defense. Troy has hit the long ball this postseason, but can they do it in Omaha? Gainesville was playing small all weekend and Troy’s ballpark is hitter friendly. Troy is not your Cinderella mid-major like everyone is making them out to be. This team played an elite non-conference strength of schedule, which is why they received the benefit of the doubt on the bubble. However, I like how this WVU team is set up. Chansen Cole gives them the advantage at SP. Paul Schoenfield is one of the best defensive CFs in the country, which is another plus when it comes to playing at Charles Schwab. Yes, Wind is blowing OUT today for this game, which sets up better for Troy’s power. However, I am playing WVU -1.5. If we receive TT and NRFI, I may back Troy TT under. WVU 7-3

My bet:

1u: West Virginia -1.5 -130 CZR ✅

0.5u: WVU to score first and win +110 DK ✅

Ole Miss vs North Carolina

• What a matchup we have here. I believe The winner of this game will be playing in the CWS finals. I would say Ole Miss had the toughest path to Omaha. The Rebels played an elite schedule, which I thought they did an excellent job navigating. They finish just outside of hosting, and get sent to Lincoln in one of two regionals that featured 3 ranked top 25 teams. They sweep through that then have to travel to Auburn for Supers. Auburn had been one of the most complete teams in the country all season and Hotty Toddy sweeps convincingly. A big reason to their success has been pitching. Taylor Rabe, game one starter vs UNC, has been phenomenal. Rabe has shot up the draft boards over the last month and even has a chance to land in the first round. In Rabe’s last three starts against Alabama, Nebraska, and Auburn, he has thrown 19 innings, allowed only 3 earned runs, and struck out 30 batters (10/game). His advanced stats are elite (3.66 xFIP, 1.55 SIERA, 12.5 K/9). I believe it was the right decision rolling him out for game one over Hunter Elliott. Elliott and Cade Townsend give this team one of the best 3 man rotations in the country. Walker Hooks is an elite bullpen arm that will be relied on heavily in big situations. My concern with Ole Miss is that they live by the long ball. This is two outcomes team: HR or Strikeout. They are only hitting .264 as a team, which ranks 255th in the country. They have 107 HRs, which ranks 14th. The wind is expected to be blowing in for this game tonight, which will make it tougher to hit the long ball. However, this team has tons of pop throughout the lineup. Jedd Utermark and Tristian Bissetta have smashed all season, both owning a OPS over 1.000. Braylen Randle has been one of the hottest hitters in the country as he is 9-16 since Regional Play started. If Will Furniss, Hayden Federico, and Dom Decker show up, this is an Ole Miss team that has the pieces to win it all.
• UNC makes it back to Omaha after surviving their super regional against USC. The Tar Heels are the only team in the field that has made it to Omaha since 2023. This will be their 9th visit since 2006, which ties Florida for the most during that time span. Jason DeCaro, UNC’s game one starter vs Ole Miss, delivered a massive complete game shutout against USC in game two of the Supers. UNC has one of the most complete pitching staffs left in the field, which features 5-6 different arms that they can trust in any given situation. Freshman Cole Glauber has been great for the Tar Heels and may be the best arm on this roster. I am not sure if they will start him or use him from the pen, but he will have the ball in a big situation during this CWS. On the offensive side, UNC is also pretty consistent. They rank top 30 in wRC+ and can hit for average and power. The lineup is led by Gavin Gallagher and Owen Hull. Hull ranks 3rd in WAR among players in Omaha.

• The wind is projected to be blowing in from RF at 19mph here, which gives UNC the slight advantage. I talked about Rabe’s advanced stats being elite. On the other side, Jason Decaro’s are not. DeCaro owns a 5.62 xFIP, 3.98 SIERA, and 8.7 K/9. His BB/9 is 3.9 compared to only 1.4 from Rabe. I am backing Ole Miss here. These lines have moved, but I have the prices at a pick’em with a 7.5 total. If we get a NRFI at a reasonable price, I will play it. If you wanted to pay the juice on Ole Miss +1.5, I think it’s a great play. Give me 4-3 Rebels.

My Bets:

1u: Ole Miss +140 DK ❌

1.25u: Ole Miss / UNC u8.5 -106 FD ✅

0.25u: Ole Miss to win by 1 +650 DK ❌