Hello everyone, apologies for the late post. I am behind schedule this week. We are headed to the beach in Florida. It will be a fun, but it cost me a trip to Neyland Stadium for the biggest game of the weekend. Follow my Action for updates.

What a slate we have on the schedule. Let’s keep it rolling.

BEST BETS

Friday – September 25th

Clemson +1.5 -112

• Clemson was lucky cover last week against UNC. I have decided to go back to the well in a west coast showdown against California.
• The Tigers found some offensive footing in the 2nd half and put together their best drives of the season.
• Clemson’s defense held UNC to two FGs after the first quarter. My concern is that they were gashed on the ground. UNC posted 214 rushing yards and 5.5 YPC.
• Tait Reynolds missed a few throws, but he was serviceable. Clemson’s offense line created holes against a solid UNC front 7. The Tigers rushed for 187 yards and 5.3 YPC.
• If Clemson repeats their performance in the trenches, they will bully Cal on both sides of the ball. In two games against UCLA and Syracuse, Cal only averaged 3.1 YPC.
• JKS is a problem at QB and can take over the game with his arm. However, Clemson’s defense ranks top 50 in defensive passing success rate and coverage. Clemson 24-20.

Saturday – September 26th

Tennessee +5.5 -110

• The matchup of the weekend will feature Tennessee hosting the #1 team in the country.
• Texas had a few struggles on the road last season with a loss to Florida and close games against Mississippi State and Kentucky. Now they will have to perform in one of the toughest venues college football has to offer. I believe the game at noon actually helps them but Neyland will be rocking no matter what.
• It was a let down spot, but Arch Manning did not perform well last week against UTSA. He suffered a big hit late in the 2nd quarter on an attempted run and was not the same afterwards. He finished 17/33 for 164 yards and only 5 Y/A.
• Tennessee’s has played a ton of zone coverage under Jim Knowles. Arch has performed better against zone compared to man. They have a relatively low blitz rate, but the front 4 does a great job of generating pressure. The Vols ranks 26th in Havoc. I expect Knowles to dial it up and force Arch to quickly get the ball out of his hand.

• Texas may be without RB Hollywood Smothers, which hurts even more. Smothers and Brown have only provided two runs go over 15 yards this season.
• Tennessee wants to run the football. They rank 2nd in rushing yards per game and 5th in YPC. DeSean Bishop is a tough man to tackle. Texas allowed a few explosive runs against Texas State, but performed well against Ohio State and UTSA.
• Josh Heupel has yet to take the training wheels off of Fazion Brandon, but I believe he will have no other choice this week. Texas will likely load the box, which should open up a few explosive deep shots against a vulnerable secondary.
• Texas has a mismatch on the inside against Tennessee’s IOL. Collin Simmons left the UTSA game in a boot, but it seems that he will be playing.
• This line has been up down all week. Navigating Neyland will be one of Arch’s toughest tests to date. Both teams have a few mismatches that they can exploit. Can Tennessee generate pressure and force Arch to make quick decisions? Can Texas win their mismatch against Tennessee’s interior offensive line and force them into 3rd and long situations? Texas has the more talented roster, but I like the Vols at home. Rocky Top 27-24.

Baylor -9.5 -115

• Colorado had a meltdown last weekend at Northwestern. Aidan Chiles carved them up going 17/22 for 241 yards on 11 Y/A. The Buffs committed 9 penalties, turned it over 4 times, and only had one snap in the redzone. There seems to be chemistry problems as Deion removed a few players from the roster.
• DJ Lagway is back and healthy. Colorado has been good against the run, but Baylor will be throwing it around.
• Baylor’s defense has been solid, ranking 8th in Havoc % and top 20 in EPA / Play. Colorado’s RB room is banged up.
• Colorado can stop Baylor’s rushing attack. Chiles tossed it around and I believe Lagway will do the same. Baylor 35-24.

NIU / Georgia State o55.5 -110

• Georgia State’s offense has been off to a hot start. They rank inside the top 30 in yards per game, points per game, and 3rd down conversion %. They hung 30 on UCF last weekend. Cameron Brown is a threat with his arm and legs. NIU’s defense ranks towards the bottom in every category and will have a tough time stopping this offense.
• Taron Dickens and the NIU offense has been moving the ball since he has taken over at QB. I believe they will be able to throw with success from behind. Georgia State 35-24.

Boise -7 -110

• A huge G6 matchup with playoff implications between Boise State and Western Michigan.
• Boise took awhile to pull away from South Dakota. WMU was tied with Rice in the 4th quarter.
• Both teams will look to run the ball. WMU can beat you with RB Buckley or QB Lowry.
• Boise ranks 17th in HAVOC.
• I trust Boise’s offense more than WMU’s. Maddux Madsen has proven that he can throw RB Sire Gaines is banged up, but Dylan Riley has been great. Riley ranks 4th nationally in rushing yards.
• I feel that we are getting value on the Boise side due to WMU’s close game against Michigan. If Boise can get up early, I’m not sure WMU can throw it around to keep up. Boise 31-17.

Utah -7.5 -110

• I was surprised to see the market shift in Iowa State’s favor like it did.
• Utah’s offense has been unsolvable for opposing defenses. The Utes rank 11th in yards per game, 9th in points per game, and 6th in 3rd down conversion %. They lead the country in adjusted EPA / Play. Utah has a ton of playmakers and Dampier executes this offense perfectly.
• Iowa State has been great against the run. They held Iowa to only 3.2 YPC. Iowa’s longest rush was only 9 yards and it was from the QB.
• Iowa State QB Jaylen Raynor has yet to have 20 pass attempts or throw for 200 yards in a game. This is a run first offense.
• Iowa State will want to win a low-scoring slugfest. There is rain in the forecast, but the percentages drop to below 35% during game-time.
• This is Utah’s first road test under Morgan Scalley. Iowa State has over-performed preseason expectations, but they have not faced an offense near Utah’s caliber. Utah 31-20.

Florida / Ole Miss o58.5 -112

• Florida has been one of the biggest risers through 3 weeks of the season.
• Jaden Baugh has been the best RB in the country. He is averaging 8.5 YPC and has forced 30 missed tackles. This will play well against an Ole Miss team that has had some tackling issues early on.
• Kewan Lacy is questionable. However, JT Lindsay averaged 5 YPC on 4 attempts against LSU.
• Yes, this is a tough spot for Ole Miss. They have to recover from the LSU game of quickly for a matchup in one of the tougher environments in college football.
• I am not rushing to the counter to fade Trinidad Chambliss. He is just too good. Florida has shown some coverage issues that Chambliss can exploit.
• Since 2007, SEC Road Dogs coming off a Home Conference Win as a Dog: 4-30 SU, 2-30 SU when catching more than 3 points, 8-24 ATS. Since 2018: 1-16 SU
• I have this game coming down to the wire. Both offenses are in a good spot to find success. Florida 34-31.

TCU -3 -112

• Jaden Craig and TCU’s offense finally get Jordan Dwyer back this week. Dwyer is the WR1 and should open up the playbook.
• UCF is without QB Alonza Barnett. Keyone Jenkins went 7/17 for 86 yards and 5.1 Y/A against Georgia State.
• TCU’s run defense has been solid, which matches up well against UCF’s offensive game plan.

Auburn -9 -110

• Jared Curtis is talented, but this will be his first SEC road game in a tough environment.
• Auburn should be able to stuff a Vandy rushing attack that has yet to figure it out.
• Vandy has yet to face a true rushing threat at QB like Byrum Brown. CJ Bailey found success on only 9 rushing attempts.
• I like Auburn to bounce back here. Auburn 35-24.

JMU / Old Dominion u48 -110

• This total has dropped to 44.5, which is about where I have it predicted. ODU 125th in offensive EPA/Play. JMU defense is stout.
• ODU defense has been good against the run and has not allowed any explosives. JMU 24-20.

Louisiana / Charlotte o48.5 -110

• Too low of a number. Charlotte’s defense has been torched in all 3 games.
• Lunch Winfield and ULL recorded 21 1st half points against UAB before taking the foot off the gas in the 2nd half.
• Louisiana’s defense is solid, but Charlotte should be able to score a few points to keep this game in arm’s reach. Louisiana 31-24.

Kansas State / Cincinnati o53.5 -110

• This total has moved up 2 points since placing it Sunday. I would play until 56.5.
• Kansas State ranks 133rd in opponent rush/EPA. Cincy’s offense is very run heavy and has broken multiple explosive runs this season.
• Cincinnati defense has also had trouble stopping the run, ranking 90th in success rate.
• Both rushing attacks in this game can exploit the opposing defense’s weaknesses. Kansas State 31-27.

OK State / WVU o59.5 -114

• I bet this line later in the week, but it must have moved up last night. There a few 60.5a available. I would play it.
• WVU’s offense dominated a good Virginia defense last weekend. The Mountaineers rushed for 249 yards on 5 YPC. Cam Cook and Michael Hawkins both finished with 123 yards.
• Hawkins went 10/17 for 190 yards and 11.2 Y/A. He did not have to throw often, but hit a few explosives.
• OK State plays fast, ranking 5th in seconds per play. After a disappointing week one, Drew Mestemaker has figured it out. Coastal Carolina had success passing against this WVU secondary.
• This will be a great game. Both teams have already added a ranked win to their resumes and hoping to start Big 12 play 1-0. OK State 34-31.

NC State -13.5 -115

• How does this team respond? If they lay down, App may win this outright. However, I expect them to play well. CJ Bailey has been much better since the UVA game. State 38-20

Oregon ML -102

• I locked Oregon in late Saturday night, which was my first play of the slate. Honestly, I would lay the Ducks up to -3.5.
• USC has not corrected their defensive problems. They have coverage, tackling and pressure issues. Rutgers posted 460 yards last weekend and Louisiana posted 360 the week before. Oregon’s offensive line has been their weakness, but I am not concerned with USC exploiting it.
• Both teams will likely be without a key WR. Jeremiah McClellan is out for Oregon. Trent Moseley is doubtful for USC. Oregon is deep at WR, but USC is young at that position group. I trust this Oregon secondary against USC’s WRs more than I do USC against Oregon’s WRs.
• This is a prove it game for both teams featuring two of the better QBs in the country. Lincoln Riley has the opportunity for a big win. Dan Lanning has the opportunity to stay in the playoff hunt. Give me Oregon 41-31.

Texas A&M +10 -110

• This is a big game for both teams coming off a loss.
• Texas A&M looked bad last week against Kentucky, but I am banking on a bounce back game from Marcel Reed. He missed several throws that he has hit before.
• Sam Leavitt is a playmaker, but he will also make mistakes. A&Ms secondary is good enough to keep up with this LSU offense.

• Texas A&M’s offensive line has had issues. They have really struggled the run the ball and now have to face this LSU front in Death Valley at night.
• LSU should win this game. They will be without one of the best offensive weapons in TE Trey’dez Green. LSU will also be without standout safety Dashawn Spears. Kiffin said in his press conference that “the depth is an issue”.
• I believe Elko prepares A&M well for this matchup and they perform much better than last week. LSU 31-27.

Arkansas -6.5 -115

• I completely understand if you are not backing Arkansas this week, but I like the spot. This program is at rock bottom and needs any win possible to patch the bleeding for a week.
• Arkansas moved the ball decently against Georgia. I feel like they have made an offensive improvement each week. Yes, they are still bad. Tulsa’s defense is good but they are a big step down from Georgia and Utah.

• Tulsa is without QB Baylor Hayes. Dexter Williams went 14/26 for 164 yards against East Texas A&M.
• I like Tulsa. Tre Lamb is a great coach and will likely compete in the American this season. Williams is a big step down from Hayes at QB. Arkansas is in prime position to get a chance at a home win, something that will be rare the rest of the season. Woo Pig 27-13.

Air Force -4 -108

• This is up to -5.5 but I would still lay it up to -7. Air Force has the better team. Nevada is traveling back home after losing @ MTSU last weekend. Air Force is coming off a bye and should win this game in the trenches. 27-17 AF.

FRIDAY ADDS:

KENT STATE / BALL STATE o50.5 -110

• These defenses grade as two of the worst units in the country. Give me points.

UTSA -13.5 -110

• Colorado State without Hauss Henjy. Roadrunners very good at the Alamodome.

WISCONSIN +10.5 -120 (bought 0.5 point)

• Too many points. Wisconsin’s defense has been solid. Colton Joesph has played better. Penn State without WR1. This game should be low scoring. Fickell needs to keep this game close.

MARYLAND ML +108

• Maryland’s run defense has been stout. UCLA played the late night last weekend and has to travel across country for a 1:30 ET kickoff. UCLA has had rushing success, but Maryland can stuff it. I do not trust Nico here.

SATURDAY ADDS

Tulane -17.5 -115

New Mexico -11.5 +104

Miss St / Missouri u58.5 +100