Week 4 Recap:

14-12 (+1.38u)

YTD: +18.12u

The original card performed well for over 3u. I had 2 bad adds (Tulane and u54.5 SC / Bama) on Saturday morning with an incorrect live bet.

Georgia State / NIU o55.5 was rough. It was looking good before NIU was shutout in the 2nd half.

Auburn with zero points in the 4th then allow Vandy to kick two FGs to cover the spread.

Air Force blew a 10 point lead with 6 minutes left.

JMU / ODU ends in a shootout after closing at 43.5.

Good calls with Oregon, Wisconsin, Arkansas, New Mexico, Clemson, Boise, o58.5 Florida / OM.

Bad calls with Maryland, TCU, Tulane, and Texas A&M.

Week 5 Best Bets

Thursday – October 1st

Tulsa ML -111

• -102 is now available. People are off of Tulsa after last week’s performance and NT coming off a blowout win over Houston Christian.
• QB Baylor Hayes will return to give a boost to the Tulsa offense.
• Rain is in the forecast, which gives Tulsa an advantage on both sides. Their offensive rushing attack ranks 45th in EPA/Rush while NT ranks 88th. Tulsa’s defense ranks 43rd in EPA/play while NT sits way down at 119th.
• Tulsa’s defensive line is their strength and held OK State to only 3.4 YPC. They will be able to disrupt the flow of this NT offense. Give me Tulsa at home. 27-24.

Friday – October 2nd

Virginia Tech / Pittsburgh u55 -110

• Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in defensive success rate. Virginia Tech ranks 31st in SR and 8th in HAVOC rate. Both defenses rank in the top 25 in yards allowed per game, rushing yards per game, and 3rd down %.
• This game will feature two QBs that have performed well this season, but have yet to put into pressure situations under the spotlight.
• Virginia Tech has only faced one offense that can throw the ball around: Maryland. Malik Washington was playing from behind, but finished with 359 yards through the air.
• Lane Stadium will be rocking. This will be Pitt’s first away game this season. I expect this to be a good game. Pitt 27-24.

Penn State -2.5 -112

• I believe the market has overreacted to both teams’ performances last week. Penn State was -7 in the lookahead.
• Penn State led the entire game before collapsing a 20-10 lead in the final 4 minutes. They allowed Wisconsin to complete a 72 yard TD pass with 1:13. They did not look great, but should have won.
• Northwestern hung with Indiana last week and will have a full week of prep. However, PFF has the Wildcats graded low: 123rd in pass block grade, 87th in run block grade, 71st in tackling, and last nationally in pass rush grade. Aiden Chiles and this NW offense will have now have to navigate against this stout PSU defense without one of their best weapons in TE Luke Dehnicke.

• The brand-new Ryan Field debuts for this game. It will be a packed house of 35,000. I like Penn State to bounce back for a road win – 24-20.

Saturday – October 3rd

Alabama -5.5 -108

• This is the best game of the weekend. We have two of the most dynamic QBs in the sport facing off in Starkville’s biggest home game over the last decade.
• Mississippi State has performed well against the run. However, Zach Arnett likes to line up with light boxes and Alabama runs with a ton of heavy formations. According to Sharpfootballanalysis.com,
  Mississippi State has faced 12 personnel just 18 times this year, but 49% of Alabama’s handoffs have come out of 12 personnel, up from 32% in 2025. 
• The Mississippi State secondary has talent led by standout corner Kelley Jones. However, Missouri’s Austin Simmons found success through the air. WR Cayden Lee exploded for 11/156/2. Mississippi State has struggled to generate pressure, which should allow Keelon Russell plenty of time to process decisions.
• Alabama’s defense generates pressure with their front four. The Tide have one of the lowest blitz rates in the country. They rank 2nd in pressure rate generated on non-blitzes, a huge improvement from 2025. This will come into play as Alabama can sit back a defender to spy on Kamario Taylor. Missouri only blitzed once against Taylor and managed to hold him to his lowest rushing total on the season. In the past, athletic QBs with the ability to make plays with their legs have torched Alabama. However, they have been much better this season. The concern for Alabama’s defense is that they have allowed explosive passing plays, something Kamario Taylor and these Mississippi State pass catchers can take use to their advantage.
• State RB Fluff Bothwell was banged up in the Missouri game but should be good to go. Alabama has done a great job of stuffing the run, which will be needed against a Miss St offense that ranks 3rd in EPA/Rush. If Alabama can force Mississippi State into 3rd and long situations, the Bulldogs are just 4 for 21 in 3rd down situations over yards or longer.
• The Mississippi State stock has reached its peak and it is time to sell. Give me Alabama 38-24.

Navy / Air Force o45.5 -110

• Navy is averaging 333.7 rushing yards per game which ranks second nationally, while Air Force ranks third, averaging 332.2 rushing yards per game. Air Force has averages 34.0 points per game and Navy averages 30.7. The Falcons rank 1st in offensive success rate.
• Navy QB Braxton Woodson missed the UAB game last week, but he dressed out and warmed up.
• Nevada and NDSU had success running the ball against Air Force. The Falcons rank 134th in EPA/Rush. Navy’s defense ranks 40th in EPA/Rush against the run, but they have yet to face a good rushing attack. I almost bet Navy +3.5, but I have the total at 51. Navy 27-24.

Syracuse -6.5 -106

• Syracuse should have an advantage in the trenches over UConn. Syracuse defense ranks 38th in EPA/Play while UConn’s offense ranks 109th.
• Steve Angeli has 5 INTs and 8 turnover worthy plays in his last 2 games. I expect Amari Odom to get some time at QB in this game. I expect them to find success against a vulnerable UConn defense that ranks 95th in yards allowed per game. Syracuse 31-20.

Ohio State -14 -115

• Iowa is welcoming College Gameday for the first time in 20 years as they host the Buckeyes. Iowa has been a consistent, good program for years, but has yet to crack the elite category.
• Iowa is led by a dominant offensive line and RB Kamari Moulton. They rank 7th in YPC. Michigan stacked the box on 41% of Iowa’s rushing attempts which caused the Hawkeyes to produce their fewest rushing yards in two seasons. Iowa’s offense ranks 109th in EPA/Rush. Ohio State’s defense ranks 14h in EPA/Rush.

• No one can stop Jeremiah Smith. The Hawkeyes have yet to play a team that can pass as effectively as Ohio State. They also just allowed Bryce Underwood to throw for 276 passing yards and 2 TDs.
• Iowa will want to turn this game into a slugfest. However, I don’t see it happening. Ohio State needs a statement win after choking to Texas. If the Buckeyes get out to an early lead, Iowa cannot throw to keep up. OSU 31-10

New Mexico -22.5 -108

• UTEP offense ranks 135th in EPA per play, 125th in success rate, 134th in line yards, and 127th in three-and-out rate. New Mexico’s defense ranks is 20th in success rate allowed, 16th in explosive plays allowed and 16th in Havoc. They also feature one of the best pass rushes in the country.
• New Mexico’s offense plays at a very slow pace and ranks 81st in EPA/Play. However, they have averaged 50 PPG against defense that are not Oklahoma.
• Nightmare matchup for UTEP’s offense. The Lobos should be able to force plenty of 3 & outs and turnovers. New Mexico 38-10.

South Carolina -2.5 -115

• Kentucky struggled out of the gate against South Alabama last weekend before pulling away in the 2nd half. Outside of a 2H collapse against Alabama, this Kentucky defense has been really good.
• South Carolina’s offense has actually been good. The Gamecocks rank 25th in EPA/Play, 21st in yards/play, and 23rd in success rate. The offensive line has improved from last year. They posted 420 yards of offense against Alabama but went 3-14 on 3rd down. Russell and Reed had success with their legs against this Kentucky defense. I expect Sellers to do the same.
• SC’s defense has had to face Kamario Taylor and Keelon Russell the last two games, two of the most athletic QBs in the country. Kenny Minchey has been solid, but he is not the rushing threat of those two.
• This is do or die for LaNorris Sellers and Shane Beamer. The Gamecocks have Florida, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Clemson remaining on their schedule. Kentucky is much improved, but I’m not buying the top 25 hype. I expect SC to show up and win at home here.

Oregon State / Colorado State o61.5 -110

• Oregon State ranks 4th in passing yards per game. QB Braden Atkinson is averaging 355 yards per game and will have plenty of time to throw against a non-existent Colorado State pass rush.
• CSU QB Hauss Henjy was downgraded to doubtful, but K’Saan Farrar had a massive day against UTSA with 344 passing yards. Both offenses will find success here. I have 38-31 Oregon State.

UTSA -10.5 -115

• UTSA found their offense last weekend. The RoadRunners erased an early 14-0 deficit in a matter of minutes and posted 59 points with 542 total yards. They will be able to confuse their success against a Rice defense ranking 125th in adj EPA/Play.
• Rice cannot pass, which will cost them in trying to keep up with this UTSA’s offense. I would play this up to 14. Roadrunners 38-17.

Texas Tech -11.5 -112

• Colorado is lost. Issac Wilson will take over at QB and I am not sure he will fix their problems. The Buffs have been a terrible 7-27 on 3rd down over their last two games. They have recorded 9 penalties in each loss and now will face their toughest defense to date. Texas Tech’s defense ranks 12th in EPA/Play.
• Will Hammond tossed 3 interceptions in the first half against Sam Houston. Tech responded well, positing 28 points in the 2nd half. After not using his legs earlier in the season, Will Hammond has started to take off. Tech averaged 5.5 YPC vs Houston and 6.3 YPC vs Sam Houston. Tech’s ability to run the football opens up the offense. Texas Tech 31-13.

Clemson +17.5 -115

• Clemson will try to turn this game into a slugfest. There is rain scheduled in the forecast. The Tigers have had success running the football in their last two games. They averaged 5.3 YPC against UNC and 5.5 YPC against California. Miami is banged up in the secondary, but I’m not sure Tait Reynolds can take advantage.
• Miami is a very good football team. However, they have played one decent opponent this season: Wake Forest. In that game, Wake was able to limit Miami’s explosive plays. Mensah was having a field day on short passses, but they never found much downfield. Clemson has a potential top 10 pick at corner in Ashton Hampton. Hampton is PFF’s only CB with 80+ grades in man and zone coverage. Miami will move Toney around, but I expect them to line him up in matchups that avoid Hampton.
• Miami is the better team here with a massive advantage at QB. However, I believe Clemson can turn this game into a low-scoring slugfest. The weather in the forecast will help. Miami 27-13.

USC -9.5 -110

• Washington has been backed heavily in the market the last few weeks, but I am not sure why. The Huskies have no offensive weapons for Demond Williams to work with. They averaged 1.5 YPC against Minnesota in a game they lost as double digit favorites. Washington’s defense grades out well, but they have played four terrible offenses.
• USC is looking to bounce back off a home loss to Oregon. The Trojans rank 4th in offensive adj EPA/Play. They may be getting WR Trent Mosley and TE Mark Bowman back this week. Jayden Maiava will have success against a Washington defense that has yet to face even an average offense.
• The USC defense has problems, but I don’t see Washington‘s offense breaking out here on the road. -8.5s are available. USC 34-24.

Baylor +4.5 -112

• This game features two of the worst rushing teams in the country. Baylor is ranked 117th in the nation in yards per carry at 3.65 and is only averaging 150.75 rush yards per game. In Power Four games, Baylor is averaging a horrific 2.73 yards per carry. Against KU and A&M, the Sun Devils averaged 124 rush yards and 3.44 yards per carry.
• Arizona State was outgained by Kansas by 200 yards but won the turnover battle 3-0. Cutter Boley will work through his WRs. Baylor grades as the 6th best coverage grade in the country according to PFF. Baylor ranks 4th nationally in sacks and tackles for loss.
• On the other side, DJ Lagway has been good with the deep ball, but below average in intermediate and short throws. Arizona State has done of good job of limiting explosive passes.
• I like Baylor’s defense in this matchup. I believe they will generate pressure and force Boley into a few mistakes. Hopefully DJ Lagway doesn’t give it right back to them. Baylor 27-24.

Texas St -4.5 -110

• I was able to get this in before the news broke about SDSU’s mumps. It appears they will be without a minimum of 10 players for this game. The line has ballooned up to -8.5 but I would not be surprised if it crossed 10 before kickoff.
• SDSU will also be without RBs Lucky Sutton and Javion Kinnard. Bad news for a SDSU offense that ranks 125th in adj EPA/Play and 132nd in success rate.
• Texas State’s rushing attack has been lethal. They rank 6th in rushing yards per game. San Diego State ranks 113th in rushing yards allowed per game. I would lay Texas St up until -10.5. Bobcats 41-20.

Cincinnati +7 -104

• Arizona defense ranks 108th in EPA/Rush and 66th in Rush SR %. BYU averaged 5.4 YPC against this defense.
• Cincinnati’s offense ranks 19th in adj EPA/Play. Their offensive line will have an advantage over this Arizona defensive front. The Bearkats rank 8th in yards per carry and just averaged 7.1 YPC against Kansas State.
• Noah Fifita may be able to find success through the air but I like Cincy’s rushing attack to keep this game within reach. 31-27 Arizona.

San Jose State / Hawaii u51.5 -110

• Both offenses play with a fast tempo, hut neither grade out well for me. Hawaii is 119th in adj EPA/Play while San Jose State is 112th.
• We are getting this under above a key number of 51. I am expecting plenty of short passes and field goal attempts. San Jose State 23-20.