Hello, welcome to week 6. Let’s have a positive weekend.

I will be adding Friday night after this is released. Follow me on Action or check back for updates.

Week 5 Recap:

-6.59u

YTD: +11.53u (before Tuesday)

Bad week last week. Can’t win them all.

Dug a hole on the Friday night and noon slate and couldn’t dig out. Bounce back week.

Tuesday – October 6th

Troy -10 ✅

Wednesday – October 7th

FIU -6.5 ✅

Thursday – October 8th

UTSA -7 PUSH (Luck. Congrats if you got -6.5)

Western Kentucky ML +104 ✅

Friday – October 9th

I hit BYU -10 early Sunday, but I have cashed out. I am going to wait and see how this offense looks without LJ Martin.

Louisville -3.5 -112

• I was hoping a 3 would become available but it doesn’t appear it will happen.
• FSU has not won an ACC road game since 2023. They looked great against UVA, but Beau Pribula was clearly not 100%.
• Buy low spot for Jeff Brohm and Louisville. The Cards started the season with playoff aspirations, but dropped their last two to Wake Forest and NC State. I like for them to bounce back here at home.
• FSU sacked Beau Pribula 10 times last week, which reflected UVA’s only 1 yard per carry. Alabama averaged 7.6 YPC and SMU averaged 5 YPC in their games against FSU. FSU’s defense ranks 93rd in adj EPA/Play and 98th in rushing success rate. Louisville’s offense ran for 9.9 YPC against NC State and ranks 29th in adj EPA/Play.
• Louisville gets back on track. 31-27.

Washington -2.5 -115

• Tough spot for Iowa. They were dominated by OSU in their biggest home game in years. Now, they have to travel West in a short week.

• Washington has been steamed nearly every week. The offense looked improved against USC. Demond Williams connected on a few deep balls. However, Iowa is good at eliminating explosive plays.
• Iowa QB Hank Brown is questionable. It seems like he is unlikely to play.
• Washington’s defense has been elite against the run, ranking 4th in EPA/Rush.
• The Huskies are 27-5 at home since 2022. I like for them to pick up a win against an Iowa team that I am lower on compared to the rankings. Washington 23-17.

Saturday – October 10th

UNC +4.5 -110

• I was impressed with UNC’s performance against ND. Petrino’s offense has been a major upgrade as the Tar Heels rank inside the top 40 in adj EPA/Play.
• Pitt QB Mason Heintschel is out for the season. They will turn to 5th year Holden Geriner, who does not have a start at the collegiate level. Geriner performed well against Virginia Tech, but only attempted 12 passing attempts.
• Virginia Tech posted 500 yard against Pitt, and somehow found a way to lose that game even with Heintschel going down. UNC has a good defensive front and will likely stack the box and force Geriner to beat them. UNC 27-24.

West Virginia +3 -102

• After dominating Cincinnati last weekend, Arizona has to travel to Morgantown for a noon kick.
• WVU can run the football. The Mountaineers rank 3rd in rushing yards per game and 10th in EPA/Rush. Against Iowa State, 40 of their 63 offensive plays were a rushing attempt from QB Michael Hawkins or RB Cam Cook. They averaged 7.3 YPC.
• Arizona was able to shut down Cincy’s rushing attack, but I am still not sold. The Wildcats rank 89th in EPA/Rush
• The concern here is that WVU’s defense is terrible. Noah Fifita has been one of the better QBs in the Big 12 this season. However, I will back the home team in a shootout. WVU 38-31.

Oklahoma +7.5 -109

• It feels like it was not very long ago that the Red River total would have been in the 60s. This year, it’s 39.5. By far the lowest in the history of this rivalry.
• Can John Mateer and Oklahoma take care of the football? They had a bye week to adjust. Mateer crumbles under pressure and Texas will generate plenty. The Sooners will run a ton of read-option with Mateer, which is something Texas has not seen much of this season. However, I am sure this Texas defense will handle it with little concern.
• Texas offense also has problems. Despite adding many explosive portal targets, Texas ranks 130th in explosive play rate, gaining 20 or more yards on just 4.2% of plays. Arch Manning has struggled to connect downfield. He ranks 102nd in on throws 10 or yards more downfield.
• Oklahoma’s defense thrives on causing chaos. The Sooners rank 1st in defensive EPA/Play and success rate.
• Tennessee succeeded against this Texas offensive line. I believe Oklahoma will do the same. Texas ranks 34th in pressure rate allowed. Oklahoma is 14th in pressure rate generated.
• In a game with a 39.5 and both offenses having major questions, I believe a 7.5 spread is too many points. Special teams and field position will have a huge impact. I’m not sure this game gets to 40 unless we see a few turnovers. Texas 17-10.

Oregon -11 -110

• UCLA has looked good, but they have yet to face an opponent ranked in the top 60. Purdue was the best offense they have faced and they nearly posted 500 yards. If Oregon can slow down the rushing attack, I do not believe Nico can beat them with his arm.
• Dylan Raiola will start at QB for Oregon. Raiola entered the USC game after Dante Moore’s concussion and led the Ducks to a win. He was 19/25 for 289 yards.

• Oregon’s defense has been a let down so far this season, but this is a perfect opportunity to get back on track. UCLA has over performed expectations, but I do not see them competing in Autzen. Oregon 34-20.

North Texas TT o42.5 -112

• I liked the over in this game, but I’m not sure if Charlotte’s offense can score.
• Memphis went over this number in 3 quarters last week against Charlotte. I believe North Texas offense can replicate. Memphis is 7th in yards per dropback. North Texas is 5th.
• Outside of the Indiana game, North Texas has averaged 46.75 points per game. Every defense in that sample outside of Houston Christian is better than Charlotte’s. I believe they hang 50+ and would play this up to 45.

Virginia Tech -9.5 -110

• Perfect bounce back spot for the Hokies. Va Tech should have their way with Cal on both sides of the ball and really dominate this game in the trenches.
• Cal is dealing with injuries. QB JKS and RB Adam Mohammed are questionable.
• This season is a wash for Cal. They have checked out. VT 31-17.

Illinois -2.5 -113

• Buy low opportunity for Illinois. After suffering an upset to Purdue as a 10 point favorite, the Illini will regroup for a matchup with Michigan State
• State is banged up. RB Cam Edwards was the focal point of this offense and is out for the season. They are missing a few linebackers which has weakened this defense.
• I like Illinois here. 27-17.

Georgia Tech +7 -115

• This weather forecast for this game looks gross. It will be wet and windy. We have already seen the total drop 7 points from opening to 43.5.
• Duke can run the football successfully here. Nate Sheppard ranks 3rd nationally in rushing yards. Tennessee torched Tech on the ground back in week 2, but they held Stanford to 2.9 YPC 2 weeks ago.
• Georgia Tech has ran the ball much better since their season opener against Colorado. Justice Haynes has recorded b2b 100 yards games.
• With a 43.5 total and both teams likely relying on their rushing game, I’ll take the points with Tech here.

Houston / Kansas St o53.5 -110

• This was one of my early Sunday bets. Both offenses have been great at ending drives with points. Houston is 4-1 to the over while Kansas State is 3-1.
• Houston QB Connor Weigman will search for revenge against the OC that benched him at Texas A&M.
• Houston has not had a pass rush all season. Avery Johnson should have plenty of time to make a decision.
• The total has ticked up to 55.5. 55 is a key number so I would wait until Gameday because I believe there is a chance that it ticks back below. Houston 31-28.

Vanderbilt / Ole Miss u59.5 -110

• Another Sunday total. The weather for this game looks bad. The total has since dropped to 54.5. I would play anything above 55.
• Ole Miss has had tackling issues, but they had a bye week to clean it up. Vanderbilt will want to play this game as slow as possible to keep the ball out of Trindad’s hands.

Tulsa +3 -110

• Tulsa burned me last week on the failed 2 point conversion attempt, but they are one of my favorite plays this week.
• I’m not sure that the books have adjusted to how bad this Navy team is. They have lost to UAB and Air Force in b2b weeks and struggled to find any offensive rhythm against Air Force.
• Tulsa’s defense ranks 23rd in EPA/Rush. The defensive line should be able to handle Navy’s offense. Tulsa 27-20.

Rice / East Carolina u47.5 -110

• These two offenses have struggled. Rice ranks 118th in yards per play while ECU ranks 119th.
• Rice likes to eat clock and run the football the Owls rushed on 73% of their plays against ND, 70% against WMU, 73% against Fresno, and 76% against UTSA. They were also playing from behind in every one of those games. ECU’s defense ranks top 50 in yards allowed per rush, rushing success rate, and adj EPA/Play.
• ECU changed QBs in the NC Central game before the bye week. Emory Williams will take over. He looked good against NCCU but this will be his first in a ECU uniform against a FBS opponent. I would lean ECU spread here as well. Pirates 27-13.

Marshall -3.5 -106

• Marshall was steamed heavily last week against James Madison. It didn’t work out, but the Herd turned it over 2 times in the redzone and had a TD erased on a holding call.
• Coastal’s offense has been terrible on early downs. Duece Bailey has bailed them out a few times, but I do not believe it a successful game plan in the long run.
• Both defenses have been poor and I believe both QBs will find success here. I trust the experienced Carlos Del Rio-Wilson at home more than the young Bailey on the road. I like the over, but check the weather. Marshall in a shootout 38-33.

LSU -8.5 -108

• Man this LSU defense has been lights out. The rank 2nd in adj EPA/Play, 5th in yards per play allowed, and 3rd in success rate.
• Kentucky has been a great story in Will Stein’s first year. Stein is an offensive guru and will likely have a few tricks up his sleeve, but this LSU defense will win out in the end.
• We saw Kentucky compete with Alabama in the first half before Bama’s talent won out. I see something similar here. LSU 31-17.

Memphis -14 -105

• The weather is supposed to be bad here, but I believe that will only boost Memphis. UAB was trailing a bad Samford team at half last week before pulling away in the 4th quarter.
• Memphis has one of the highest rated offenses in the country. They can run the football effectively and beat you over the top.
• UAB’s offensive line has struggled and Ryder Burton is not good when pressured. Memphis has one of the better defensive lines at the G6 level. Memphis 38-14.

UNLV +3.5 -115

• A simple buy low opportunity on UNLV and sell high on NDSU. NDSU has looked great, but they have played Jax St, Fordham, Air Force, Sac St, and Wyoming. They also failed to cover the spread in their two away games.
• UNLV’s offense has started to click, averaging 38.5 PPG since their bye week.
• I have this modeled close to a pick’em. Mullen and UNLV pick up a huge conference win. 27-24.

Georgia / Alabama o50.5 -115

• Hurricane Isaias has sent this total down from 56.5 to 51.5. The expectations were that this game was going to be ugly with the weather. However, things have changed. Meteorologist Kevin Roth wrote for “Things are trending in the right direction. A faster storm speed combined with a late game means the worst of the weather will be gone long before the game starts. There’s still a chance for a few showers, especially early, but it’s trending towards a drier outcome. Morning winds could easily reach 50mph but game time winds will likely be 10-20 mph.”
• If the winds stay under 20 mph, it should not have a huge effect downfield passing. This is the current #1 and #2 scoring offenses in the country. Alabama ranks 6th in yards per play while Georgia is 7th.
• FanDuel dropped this total below the key number of 51, which I had been monitoring since the forecast dodged a bullet.
• These defenses are great. However, Alabama has given up a few explosives in nearly every game. Last week against Vandy, Georgia only recorded 2 sacks and allowed Blaze Berlowitz to break a few runs to keep drives alive. Vandy also connected on a 60 yard bomb in the first quarter.
• I believe this may be a matchup between the two best teams in college football. We should be in for a great game. I have no idea who wins. If the weather ends up being worse, I would lean Georgia. If downfield passing isn’t effected, I lean Alabama. If you are playing this over, try to get a 51 or lower. Alabama 30-27.

Minnesota / Purdue o50.5 -110

• Purdues defense is terrible. They played solid against Illinois, but they still rank outside of the top 100 in nearly every defensive category.
• It’s a sell high spot on the Gophers. However, Minnesota has had b2b matches against good defenses in Washington and Michigan. They went 2-0 and this will be a huge step down.

• Purdue ranks 28th in EPA per dropback. Minnesota has not faced many offenses that can throw it around like Purdue. Kamario Taylor went 16/22 with 10.3 yards per attempt. I believe this total is too low. Minnesota 31-28.

Utah -15.5 -108

• If it’s not broken, don’t try to fix it. Utah is 4-0 ATS and has been dominant in these night home games. Utah will be fresh coming off the bye. The Utes grade well on both sides of the ball. Their offense ranks 18th in EPA/Play and their defense sits at 12th. Their offense has multiple athletes capable of taking over a game and their defense is the only team in the country to not allow an opponent to score over 17 points in a game.
• Kansas defense grades well but that is due to dominating against LIU and MTSU. Missouri posted 470 yards and 4.5 YPC.
• I have this modeled around 17. I am going to continue to back Utah until they prove otherwise. I would also lean over. Utah 41-20.