I can’t believe we are already to week 8. After three weeks of traveling with a one month old, I am finally back home and will have my full write ups for the remainder of the season.

Last week was one of the wildest Saturday’s I can remember. From a betting perspective, it was up and down. I had a terrible noon slate, but recovered well in the afternoon and evening for a small profit.

Pick 5

North Texas / Navy o61.5 or 62.5.

San Jose St / Nevada u47.5 or 46.5

USC / Wisconsin o49.5

LSU -7

Rice +8.5

I cashed out of Kansas State for a small loss. Avery Johnson is doubtful.

Week 8 Best Bets

Friday – October 23rd

UMass +15 -112 CZR

UMass TT o18.5 -106 FD

• I had this projected UConn -12 without the Pop Watson news. As of Friday morning, Watson is expected to suit up for the Minutemen which is a huge boost for the offense.
• UConn’s defense has not been good enough to justify being this large of a favorite. The Huskies rank 125th in adj EPA/Play and 122nd in success rate.
• I am playing UMass TT over as well. This number is simply too low and I would play it all the way up to 20. I also like the full game over.

Tulsa ML -109 CZR

• Army will be the third straight triple option opponent that Tulsa has played. Both Navy and Rice found success rushing the ball with their QB.
• I am not sold on Army’s defense. They rank 137th in adj EPA/Play, 100th in success rate, and 133rd in HAVOC %. Baylor Hayes is picked apart Navy and Rice, which are both better defensive units than Army.
• Tulsa will have to limit QB Cale Hellums. In Hellums last two games, he has ran for 195 with 5 TDs against FAU and 223 with 2 TDs against Tulane.
• I project -3. Tulsa 31-28.

Air Force -5 -110 CZR

• Air Force has been a gift that keeps on giving. They are 5-1 ATS this season
• AF lost QB Liam Szarka for the season. However, Evan Medders has stepped in and this offense has not missed a beat. Medders has rushed for 152 with 3 TDs and 114 with 2 TDs in his two starts.
• Wyoming’s offense exploded for 41 points last week against NIU. Prior to that, Wyoming only averaged 14.5 PPG.
• There will not be many dropbacks attempted in this game. Medders has 10 passing attempts on the season. Hughes has only averaged 22.1 attempts per game. The wind will also be up to 30mph tonight in Laramie.
• Wyoming ranks 129th in EPA/Rush, which is a concern when facing this Air Force offense. My projections have Air Force -7, which is where this line opened. Falcons 24-17.

NC State / Stanford o54.5 -114

• Stanford ranks 123rd in defensive adj EPA/Play while NC State ranks 109th. NC State is 118th in success rate and Stanford is 127th. Against FBS opponents, Stanford’s defense is allowing 42.6 PPG.
• Both teams rank inside the top 60 in seconds per play, so we shouldn’t see a snail’s pace.

Saturday – October 24th

WMU / Toledo u47.5 -106

• Waiting for a 48 may be the move here, but I wanted to include this play in my write ups.
• Western Michigan’s offense operates at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 133rd in seconds per play. They are averaging 21 PPG against FBS opponents. If you remove Kent State from the data, that number drops to 17.6 PPG. WMU’s offensive line ranks 125th in pass protection. Toledo’s defense ranks 16th in success rate.
• Toledo’s offense is averaging 31.8 PPG against FBS opponents but they have taken advantage of playing bad defenses. That data includes: Michigan State, Temple, San Diego State, Ball State, Buffalo, and Eastern Michigan. Their offense ranks 112th in EPA/Rush.
• Toledo’s defense ranks 24th in yards per play while WMU’s ranks 28th. Both teams have been great at preventing explosives.
• With WMU’s slow pace and limited offensive success, I believe this game will be a slug fest in the trenches. Toledo 24-20.

Rice +8.5 -112

• Rice is always a team that I am hesitant to back; however, FAU was demolished by Army’s triple option last weekend.
• Boca Raton is under a flood watch and high winds, which should limit this FAU passing attack. FAU ranks 125th in yards per carry while Rice ranks 63rd.
• FAU’s defense ranks 127th in yards per carry. With the weather and FAU’s defensive struggles, I believe Rice can keep this game within the number and maybe even pull off the upset. FAU 28-24.

SMU / California o55 -110

• JKS is back starting for Cal in a prove it opportunity after not starting last week against Wake Forest.
• California’s defense creates little havoc and pressure, which should give Jennings time to find an open receiver.
• SMU totals were in the upper 50s earlier in the season. They have went under the last two weeks due to a rain game against Boston College and a FG contest against UVA.
• I see both QBs finding success in this game. As a 19 point underdog, JKS will have the green light to let it loose. SMU 38-24

LSU -5.5 -115

• This was one of my two Sunday bets. I would lay this until it crosses 7. I projected LSU -9.
• Auburn is coming off a program-shifting win in Athens. However, Georgia should have won that game. Auburn had a miracle catch in the endzone and recovered a Stockton fumble late. ESPN’s Bill Connelly had Auburn at a 3.3% win expectancy.
• LSU has lost its last 8 SEC road games dating back to 2024. The Tigers lead the country in defensive adj EPA/Play and rank 25th in adj EPA/Play. The offense will also get star TE Trey’dez Green back from injury.
• This game will be decided on if LSU’s defense can contain Byrum Brown. Brown ranks 113th in adjusted completion rate but 9th among QBs in rushing yards.
  Brown has racked up a combined 247 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the Tigers’ last two games, both coming against elite defenses in Georgia and Tennessee. LSU prevented Trinidad Chambliss and Marcel Reed from beating them with their legs. I believe they will do the same with Brown.
• LSU rankS fourth in the FBS with 54 explosive passes on the season. Sam Leavitt has 8 interceptions on the season, which is tied for the most in the country. Auburn has forced 11 turnovers, which ranks 21st. This is the only reason I did not lay more than 1u. LSU 31-20.

Texas Tech -10.5 -107

• Project TT -14. Texas Tech has found their groove and covered in 3 consecutive games. Tech’s defense has forced 9 interceptions in those 3 wins. Cincy QB JC French has done a great job of taking care of the football. He has yet to throw an interception on 153 dropbacks this season.
• Cincy’s offense is centered around being able to run the football. RB Gi’Bran Payne is questionable with an ankle injury. I am guessing the team’s leading rusher will not play. Tech’s defense ranks 11th in EPA/Rush, 19th in yards per carry allowed, and 10th in success rate.
• Cincy’s defense ranks 107th in EPA/Play and 108th in yards per play. They have struggled against the run and pass. Tech’s offense really clicked against Arizona State. Give me TT 38-24.

Central Michigan +4 -110

• I believe this is a classic wrong team favored. I project CMU -1.
• Miami’s offense ranks 103rd in adj EPA/Play while CMU’s ranks 87th. Miami is down to their 3rd string QB in Caleb Heavner. In his 3 starts against Bowling Green, UMass, and Akron he has passed for 198, 95, and 65.
• Miami’s defense ranks 94th in adj EPA/Play while CMU’s sits at 74th. CMU’s defense is vulnerable to the rush, but Miami’s rushing success rate ranks outside the top 100.
• CMU’s QB Angel Flores was in concussion protocol. I believe there is a solid chance that he does not play. However, backup QB Jadyn Glasser has starting experience and has flashed upside. I’m not counting on a huge drop off. Miami’s QB has yet to crack 200 yards and has not faced a defense as good as CMU’s. CMU 23-17.

Baylor / Kansas u53.5 -110

• I project this 50.5 .
• Kansas defense ranks 34th in adj EPA/Play. Baylor ranks 43rd in adj EPA/Play and 3rd in Havoc.
• Isiah Marshall has seen an uptick in rushing attempts the last few weeks. Baylor hasn’t played a ton of rushing QBs but they held Auburn’s Byrum Brown to 27 yards on 21 carries in week 1.

• If you remove the 55 point outlier against Arizona State, Baylor is only averaging 15 PPG against P4 opponents. Baylor 27-24.

Oregon / Illinois o49.5 -105

• Perfect spot for this Oregon offense to show life. Illinois may be the worst defense at the P4 level. The Illini rank 136th in adj EPA/Play, 134th in yards per dropback, and 128th in Havoc. Dylan Raiola needs to have a good outing after a terrible performance in his last start.
• Illinois will be starting Michael Clayton at QB. This will be Clayton’s first career start. He flashed upside in limited time against Michigan State, finishing 6/8 for 88 yards and 2 TDs. Oregon 38-17.

Georgia Tech -4.5 -110

• I project GT -7. GT has looked improved since their bye week. They won outright against Duke then lost by 10 to VT in a game where they fumbled inside the 5.
• Boston College’s defensive stats are not bad, but part of that is due to playing VT and SMU in a monsoon. Boston College earned an upset win over Pitt last week and will be hitting the road.
• There isn’t much analytical data that supports me on Tech, but I like the spot and believe this team is undervalued in the market. Tech 31-24.

North Texas / Navy o61.5 -115

• I project 73. This is one of my favorite plays on the board.
• Navy has struggled against the pass. Their defense ranks 130 in EPA per dropback. FAU passed for 386 with 12.1 yards per attempt and UTSA tossed for 359 yards with 9.4 yards per attempt. North Texas ranks 5th in EPA/Pass and will be the best passing attack Navy has faced.
• North Texas has been questionable against the run. Texas State has been their best rushing opponent and averaged 7 yards per carry against UNT.
• North Texas 38-35.

Tennessee / South Carolina u51 -115

• I bought the 0.5 here to get a key number. I have it projected at 48.5.
• South Carolina’s defense has been vulnerable against the pass. However, Tennessee’s passing attack has not been good. The Vols rank 119th EPA/DB and MacIntyre is averaging one of the lowest yards per attempt among P4 QBs. SC will have to stop DeSean Bishop. They did a good job of containing Jaden Baugh two weeks ago in a blowout win over Florida.
• Tennessee’s defense has been elite. They dominated Alabama’s offense and eliminated everything down field. Their pass rush can really for Sellers to make a few mistakes. The sacks have been there, but a few QBs have broken long runs.
• This is a tough spot for Tennessee. South Carolina is off the bye while the Vols are coming off a big time win. Give me Tennessee 20-17.

Mississippi State +3.5 -110

• I hit this as soon as the Kamario Taylor news came out. It has crossed 3 but Miss State is still an underdog. Oklahoma opened -1.5 and was hit early due to people believing KT was not playing. Prior to his injury, this line would have been at least -2 in Miss St’s favor. Taylor is worth at least 6 points on the line.
• The concern is that Oklahoma’s defense is great and KT may not be 100%. However, I will take the value here. John Mateer cannot be trusted and State can force turnovers. Miss St 24-23.

UCF +7.5 -110

• A 43.5 total in the spot of the year. There isn’t much to it. BYU is off a huge win and has to travel across the country to the bounce house UCF has been good against the run. Fire on anything above 7. BYU 24-20.

Minnesota +7.5 -106

• Another low total where we are catching the home team with a spread over a TD.
• Minnesota will have problems running the football here. However, Drake Lindsay is capable of making plays to keep the Gophers in this game. After the blowout loss, I trust PJ Fleck to have his team locked in after the bye week.