I managed a solid week 8, finishing +6.46u. A bad Friday slate was followed by a great Saturday. Let’s keep it rolling.

I will update later tonight with a few adds. I am waiting on some injury news and watching how the market moves.

Week 9 Best Bets

Friday – October 30th

Baylor ML -102

• Dave Aranda was finally fired last week. Last season, teams went 6-3 ATS in the following game after their HC was fired.
• UCF is coming off a huge OT win, which was the program’s first win over a top 5 opponent.
• Baylor’s defense is solid. The Bears rank 35th in adj EPA/Play, 32nd in success rate, and 6th in Havoc. They have been good against the pass and rush.
• Keyone Jenkins has really elevated UCF’s passing game in their last two games. QB1 is his job to lose even if Barnett gets healthy.
• Neither team succeeds well at running the ball. UCF ranks 96th in yards per carry. Baylor ranks 118th. This game will likely come down to which defense performs against the opposing passing attack. Baylor ranks 34th in success rate per drop back. UCF ranks 101st.
• UCF is at home but they are coming off the program’s largest victory. They have to regroup on a short week against a solid team that just fired their head coach. Give me Baylor 27-24.

1.25u: Notre Dame -28.5 -110

• This line is now -30.5 but I would still lay it. This is one of my favorite plays of the weekend and project Notre Dame -34.
• Yes, it’s a look ahead spot for Notre Dame with Miami on the schedule next weekend. However, they are coming off a loss and a bye week. Freeman will have his guys focused for this one.
• Notre Dame has dominated this game the last 3 years with wins of 42-3, 51-14, and 49-10. I believe this Navy team is worse than the last few years while this ND team is better.
• Navy has no way of preventing ND from scoring. Their defense is 2nd to last in the country in EPA/DB.
• There is a possibility ND doesn’t want to put much on film with the Miami game next weekend. I don’t think it matters. They will be able to score at will. Notre Dame 45-10.

Western Michigan -12.5 -110

• WMU projects -17.

• Bowling Green ranks 115th in EPA/rush and 133rd in success rate against the run.
• Offensively, Bowling Green ranks 132nd in EPA/Play. Their 3.84 yards per carry also ranks 132nd.
• WMU should find success running the ball. The Broncos rank 31st in EPA/Rush.
• 31-13 WMU.

Illinois / Maryland o52.5 -109

• This line is up to 54.5, but I would lay anything under 55 as I have 56 projected.
• Illinois held Oregon to 10 points last week, but I am still not sold on this defense. They rank 131st in EPA/Play, 132nd in success rate, and 111th in yards per play. They have been worse against the pass, which is what Maryland will want to do with Malik Washington.
• Maryland has to find a rushing attack. The Terps own a 3.94 yards per carry, which ranks 129th in the country.
• Illinois is starting Michael Clayton at QB. The Freshman had success late in the Michigan State game, but only tossed for 84 yards against Oregon in last week’s win. This will be a much friendlier matchup as Maryland has allowed 43.8 PPG over their last 5.
• Honestly, I like Maryland here. Illinois is hitting the road off a big win. Maryland gets the fired coach boost. Give me Maryland 31-24.

Auburn +13.5 -112

• I like Ole Miss, but I am not sure they should be this heavy of a favorite here. I have Ole Miss -10.
• Byrum Brown is one of the hardest players to tackle in the country. Ole Miss has struggled to tackle all season.
• Auburn ranks 21st in forced turnovers. I believe Trinidad is the best QB in the country, but tossed 3 interceptions last week against Texas which raised his total to 7 on the year.
• I faded Auburn last week, but that was a tough spot against a healthy LSU team. The Tigers have played well in their two true road games this season: A close loss against Tennessee and a win over Georgia. No Kewan Lacy for Ole Miss, but that doesn’t really affect the spread for me. Ole Miss 34-24.

Old Dominion +3 -112

• This team has burned me multiple times this season. I said I was done, but here we are.
• ODU’s offense grades as the worst in the country in nearly every stat. However, they have been playing a 3rd string QB and matched up against some pretty solid defenses.
• The good news here is that QB2 Ryan Huff will be back for the Monarchs. He has played in multiple games but in his one start against JMU, Huff tossed for a team-high 261 yards.
• Marshall has played a weak strength of schedule. Their defense ranks 102nd in adj EPA/Play, which will be one of the worst units ODU has faced.
• Marshall also has QB concerns. They will likely give the keys back to Zion Turner after a win over South Alabama. However, South Alabama ranks dead last in adj EPA/Play and Marshall only mustered 20 points and struggled to move the ball at times. Outside of Penn St, Old Dominion will be defensive unit Marshall has played. The Monarchs rank 22nd in adj EPA/Play.
• I like ODU here at home. I have them projected as the favorite. Lean under as well. Monarchs 24-20.

East Carolina -4.5 -110

• ECU has lost b2b games that they should have won. ECU has struggled offensively, but they managed 34 points against a solid Memphis defense last week.
• Temple is coming off a loss to Charlotte, one of the worst teams in all of college football. The Owls rank 125th in coverage and 134th in EPA/DB.
• ECU played their best game of the season last week. Temple had a bye, but is coming off their worst game of the season. ECU can find success through the air. The Pirates have 3 close losses and could very well be 6-1. ECU 27-20.

FIU +14 -110

• Liberty has been a wagon in the CUSA, but I’m not sure they should be a 2 TD favorite over FIU.
• FIU owns the best defense in the CUSA. The secondary is really good, ranking 16th in passing success rate. They held FAU to their lowest passing total of the season.
• Liberty’s SOS ranks 128th. They have wins over Gardner Webb, Ball State, Coastal Carolina, Delaware (without Minicucci), Sam Houston, and Kennesaw State.
• FIU may struggle to score on Liberty, but their defense should keep them within this number in a low scoring game. Liberty 24-13.

Georgia -11 -110

• The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. It sucks this game is not in Jacksonville, but it will still be a fun watch.
• Kirby has a really good record in the following games off the bye week and off a loss. Georgia’s offense will be able to feast against Florida’s defense. The Gators rank 118th in EPA/Play. Georgia made mistakes against Auburn. I expect those to be cleaned up after the bye week.
• Florida listed both QBs as questionable on the injury report, but it’s all smoke and mirrors. I expect Jones to get the start after leading the team to a big win at Texas.
• My only concern here is that Buster Faulker’s offenses found some success against Kirby’s defenses while he was at Georgia Tech. Georgia’s defense has been good, but not elite. They have eliminated explosives, but rank outside the top 50 in EPA/Rush and EPA/DB.
• I trust Kirby off a loss with 2 weeks of preparation. We should get Georgia’s best effort. Stockton will find success against Florida’s defenses. Georgia 38-20.

Utah -6.5 -112

• This is a tough spot for the Utes. They are coming off the Houston win with a big game on deck against BYU.
• Cincinnati will look to play spoiler two weeks in a row after a big win over Texas Tech.
• My reasoning here is I do not see a way that Cincy stops this Utah rushing attack. Cincy’s defense ranks 102nd in EPA/Rush and 116th in rushing success rate.
• Cincinnati’s offense will want to run the ball. They averaged 6.8 YPC against Tech. However, Utah ranks 11th in EPA/Rush and has only allowed 3.95 YPC this season.
• The sandwich spot is the reason we are getting a discounted price on Utah. Unlike Tech, I believe this offense will be able to run at will against this Cincy defense. This game could have lots of points. I liked the over as well. Utah 38-24.

Purdue / Penn St u55 -115

• Purdue overs have printed for me this season, but I believe this number has ticked a tad too high.
• Penn State has been elite against the pass this season. They should be able to slow down Purdue’s offense.
• Purdue’s defense is terrible, but I do not believe Penn State has the offense to exploit it. Penn St 31-20.

Georgia Southern -5 -113

• App State is coming off a big win over James Madison. They now have to regroup and hit the road to face a Georgia Southern team coming off a bye.
• App State ranks 97th in defensive adj EPA/Play and 99th offensively.
• Georgia Southern is better than their record indicates. They are 6-1 ATS this season with covers against JMU, Clemson, and Houston. Give me Southern 31-24

Clemson / Florida State u50.5 -110

• Clemson offense is really bad. The Tigers rank 122nd in adj EPA/Play, 136th in EPA/DB, and 118th in offensive success rate. They are only averaging 18.8 PPG against FBS opponents.
• The FSU defense has struggled at times, but I don’t believe Clemson will exploit them. As long as they don’t allow 5 YPC, Clemson can’t throw it around.
• Clemson is 4-3 to the under. In two of the overs, LSU scored 51 and Miami scored 41. FSU will not hang that large of a number against this defense. FSU 27-17

USC / Ohio State o50.5 -115

• Yes, Ohio State is down to the backup, but this is a great matchup to break a new QB in. Without Sayin, I have this projected this total at 54.5. I also believe it will drop below 51 again before kickoff.
• USC’s offense ranks 2nd in adj EPA/Play. Their defense ranks 126th in adj EPA/Play.
• Ohio State is off a bye week. They have had plenty of time to scheme up a system to feed Jeremiah Smith 15+ targets. If Fahey can get him the ball, USC has no one capable of stopping him.
• Wisconsin did a great job of slowing down this offense. Jayden Maiava was 2-10 for 8 yards and an interception when under pressure. He performed well when kept clean. Ohio State does not generate a ton of pressure, which should Maiava plenty of opportunities to take advantage.
• Do you trust a new QB in his first road game or a USC team that really isn’t that good. This very well could be a job-saving game for Lincoln Riley. Ohio State 31-27.

Arkansas +10.5 -110

• This was one of my first bets of the weekend, which was before the Ahmad Hardy news. Hardy will be playing. With his prolonged absence, I doubt he sees double digit carries.
• The Razorback defense has really stepped up the last few games.
• Arkansas star WR Chris Marshall is listed as questionable. If he misses, I may look to buy my way out of this one.

Army / Memphis o59.5 -110

• The models disagree with me here but I do not care.
• Memphis defense ranks 99th in EPA/rush. They have allowed 5.71 yards per carry, which ranks 113th. They have yet to match up with a triple option offense.
• Army is averaging 47 PPG in their last two games. They averaged 8 YPC against FAU and 5.4 YPC against Tulsa. The Knights rank 1st in offensive EPA/Play.
• Army’s defense ranks 136th in adj EPA/Play, 129th in EPA/DB, and 135th in EPA/Rush. Memphis loves to run the ball while mixing in deep shots. The Tigers rank top 10 in yards per carry and yards per drop back.
• Memphis has their way offensively against this Army defense. I would be on Memphis spread, but their run defense is a major concern. Memphis 38-31.