-0.55u yesterday. Nailed Texas with the laddered run lines. Whiffed on Georgia.

Elimination Day. Win or go home for these four teams.

6/16 CWS

Troy vs West Virginia

• We have a rematch of game one between Troy and WVU. Troy’s offense continued to stay hot as they put up a 2026 CWS high 14 hits against Ole Miss on Sunday. The Trojans came from behind to win 12-8. Cooper Ellingworth will get the ball. Ellingworth gave Troy 6 innings against Florida in the Regional finals. He tossed 89 pitches there, which was by far the season-high. Prior to the Florida start, he had not gone more than 4 innings in a game. He owns a 6.15 ERA, but advanced numbers are much better: 5.25 XFIP and 3.55 SIERA. He also doesn’t walk many batters and throws a wicked curveball. Troy’s top reliever, Zach Crotchfelt, will be available here. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Meade brought Egan or Stubbs out in relief. It’s win or go home. Worry about tomorrow when it gets here. Troy’s lineup has been on fire. In game one against WVU, Troy chased Chansen Cole early. Cole had been mowing through everyone prior to that start. Ian Korn came in relief for WVU and delivered 6 innings of 2 hit ball.
• WVU finds themselves trying to set the rematch up with UNC. Dawson Montesa will get the start for the Mountaineers. Montesa was huge in the regional as he stepped up and delivered a 7.1 IP performance against Wake Forest when WVU was facing elimination. Montesa began the season as WVU’s #1 but struggled at times throughout the season. He owns a 5.78 ERA, 5.32xFIP, and a 3.74 SIERA. Montesa’s issue has been command as he owns a high 5.0 BB/9. He has not allowed more than 4 earned runs in an outing since 4/10. If he has his control, he easily has the talent to put together a strong outing. If he comes out walking hitters, he will not go deep into this game. On the bright side if he doesn’t go deep, WVU will have Korn, Cole, McDougal, and Esteridge available. I think they turn to Cole or Korn if it’s close. It’s all hands on deck, worry about winning two against UNC once you get there. WVU’s offense looked flat against UNC. Ryan Lynch did not have his best stuff and they could not produce. They did not record a single XBH in that game and have only recorded 2 for the entire tournament. Outside of Guzman’s steal of home, Troy did a great job of limiting the havoc on the base paths.
• I like how Troy is playing. The lineup is locked in. Ellingworth has the advanced metrics advantage over Montesa. Troy played them close in game one before a big two out single late in the game from WVU. I leaned over 11.5 when this total was released. However, I feel as if it has moved too far. 14 is a high number for Charles Schwab regardless of winds. The wind is slightly out this afternoon but nothing crazy. I expect it to be a sweat but I will take a chance with u14.

My bets:

1.25u:: Troy +2.5 -115 DK

1u: Troy / WVU u14 -110 DK

0.25u: Troy to score first and win +380

May add a small amount to Troy ML

Texas vs Georgia

I will write this game up on my break and send a notification once it’s finished. I have u14 locked but it has already been bought down. The wind is expected to be blowing straight in. I would play a 12.5 but not a 11.5