-0.55u yesterday. Nailed Texas with the laddered run lines. Whiffed on Georgia.

Elimination Day. Win or go home for these four teams.

6/16 CWS

Troy vs West Virginia

• We have a rematch of game one between Troy and WVU. Troy’s offense continued to stay hot as they put up a 2026 CWS high 14 hits against Ole Miss on Sunday. The Trojans came from behind to win 12-8. Cooper Ellingworth will get the ball. Ellingworth gave Troy 6 innings against Florida in the Regional finals. He tossed 89 pitches there, which was by far the season-high. Prior to the Florida start, he had not gone more than 4 innings in a game. He owns a 6.15 ERA, but advanced numbers are much better: 5.25 XFIP and 3.55 SIERA in. He also doesn’t walk many batters and throws a wicked curveball. Troy’s top reliever, Zach Crotchfelt, will be available here. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Meade brought Egan or Stubbs out in relief. It’s win or go home. Worry about tomorrow when it gets here. Troy’s lineup has been on fire. In game one against WVU, Troy chased Chansen Cole early. Cole had been mowing through everyone prior to that start. Ian Korn came in relief for WVU and delivered 6 innings of 2 hit ball.
• WVU finds themselves trying to set the rematch up with UNC. Dawson Montesa will get the start for the Mountaineers. Montesa was huge in the regional as he stepped up and delivered a 7.1 IP performance against Wake Forest when WVU was facing elimination. Montesa began the season as WVU’s #1 but struggled at times throughout the season. He owns a 5.78 ERA, 5.32xFIP, and a 3.74 SIERA. Montesa’s issue has been command as he owns a high 5.0 BB/9. He has not allowed more than 4 earned runs in an outing since 4/10. If he has his control, he easily has the talent to put together a strong outing. If he comes out walking hitters, he will not go deep into this game. On the bright side if he doesn’t go deep, WVU will have Korn, Cole, McDougal, and Esteridge available. I think they turn to Cole or Korn if it’s close. It’s all hands on deck, worry about winning two against UNC once you get there. WVU’s offense looked flat against UNC. Ryan Lynch did not have his best stuff and they could not produce. They did not record a single XBH in that game and have only recorded 2 for the entire tournament. Outside of Guzman’s steal of home, Troy did a great job of limiting the havoc on the base paths.
• I like how Troy is playing. The lineup is locked in. Ellingworth has the advanced metrics advantage over Montesa. Troy played them close in game one before a big two out single late in the game from WVU. I leaned over 11.5 when this total was released. However, I feel as if it has moved too far. 14 is a high number for Charles Schwab regardless of winds. The wind is slightly out this afternoon but nothing crazy. I expect it to be a sweat but I will take a chance with u14. 6-5 WVU

My bets:

1.25u:: Troy +2.5 -115 DK ❌

1.5u: Troy / WVU u14 -110 DK ✅

0.25u: Troy to score first and win +380 ❌

Texas vs Georgia

• With Oklahoma pulling off the win last night, Georgia will have a quick turn around in this matchup against Texas. The Dawgs looked lost at the plate last night. Outside of 3 solo shots, Xander Mercurius flat out shoved. The freshman was beating the best lineup in the country with a mid 90s fastball across the plate. In game one against Texas, Georgia’s offense didn’t produce as usual. I know they finished with 7 runs, but only managed 5 hits. However, this is one of the best lineups in the country. If anyone can turn it around at the snap of the fingers, it’s Georgia. Georgia has done okay against LHP this season. They shelled Valincius in Supers and ripped Hunter Elliot. However, Ark’s Hunter Dietz, Auburn’s Jake Marciano, and Valincius navigated this lineup the first time around. On the mound, Georgia will start Dylan Vigue. Vigue has some very good stuff and he was arguably Georgia’s best starter for the first half of the season, but he has been hit around in every outing for the past month. He owns a 4.73 ERA, 3.58 SIERA, and 5.85 xFIP with an unfortunate 5.2 BB/9.I imagine Georgia will have a short leash with Vigue. The good news is they have their full bullpen available. Volchko and Aoki both recorded every out in their first two games. Matt Scott will likely be the first arm they call on followed by Justin Byrd. They will also have Zach Brown and Paul Farley available if needed.
• Texas sets up the rematch with Georgia after dismantling Alabama yesterday. The Longhorns produced 14 runs, which has been the most scored on Omaha this season. Adrian Rodriguez has been the hottest bat in the country this postseason. He finished 5-5 yesterday and became the third player ever to hit for the cycle in the CWS. Anthony Pack and Ethan Mendoza record 3 hits while Carson Tinney worked 4 walks. In game one, Joey Volchko shoved it to Texas, striking out 15. The Longhorns also made a few critical errors early that cost them the game. Luke Harrison will be getting the ball today. He owns a 4.29 ERA, 3.18 SIERA, and 5.19 xFIP with solid command this season Harrison has only had one start this postseason and it was against Holy Cross in the first game of Regionals. In his final 3 starts of SEC play, Harrison 4 , 4 , and 5 against Miss State, Tennessee, and Missouri. Similar to Georgia, Texas will have their main bullpen pieces available. Sam Cozart will likely pitch at some point tonight. I will be surprised if Harrison faces this lineup a third time through the order with bullpen options like Cozart, Thomas Burns, Brett Crossland, Ethan Walker, and Haiden Leffew available.

• This one is a tough one. If Georgia continues to struggle offensively, Texas will win out on the mound. If Texas swings it like they did against Alabama, they will produce runs on Vigue and Scott. However, Georgia has not lost b2b SEC games this season. This team has responded off a loss very well. My concern is Vigue & Scott < Harrison & Cozart. However, I believe the bats wake up tonight. I have been high on Georgia all season, so why stop now? They didn’t hit Volantis around, but still managed to produce runs. I had it as a pk against Volantis. I have Georgia -130 against Harrison. I will be playing u14 and Georgia ML. I would not play u11.5. I have this priced at 13.

My bets:

1.25u: Texas / Georgia u14 -115 ✅

0.5u: Georgia -120 CZR ✅