Welcome back. After a long offseason, week 0 is finally here. Let’s have a season.

2025-2026 Results

Play #1

TCU / UNC 1H u24.5 -125

I would play this down to 21.5.

• TCU decimated UNC last year in Belicheck’s first game with a 48-14 win.
• The Frogs will role out Jaden Craig at QB, a transfer from Harvard. Craig had a ton of success at Harvard, but this will be a step up in competition compared to the Ivy League.
• The Frogs also welcome a new offensive coordinator in Gordon Sammis from UConn.
• With the offensive changes, I expect TCU to bring a run-heavy approach into this game. They will not drop Craig back 40+ times like they did Josh Hoover.
• The Frogs will also be without a starting WR due to the locker room fight.
• UNC’s defense was their strong point last season as they improved as the season progressed. The defensive line should be this unit’s strength. One thing the Tar Heels did well last season was limit the explosive plays, which is always good for an under.
• On the UNC offensive side of the ball, Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards has won the starting job. Edwards has experience under center, but is not a game changer.
• Bobby Petrino will be taking over the reigns at offensive coordinator. This offense must improve from last year’s results.
• TCU will be without standout transfer safety Jacob Fields after he was cut from the team due to the locker room fight.
• I expect both teams to have a run-heavy approach here, especially early which should eat the clock. TCU had turnover problems last season, but I expect that to change with a new offensive approach. Both teams will feature new QBs and new OCs and a long road trip. Belichick is a defensive guru and has had months of prep for this game. I believe we will see start slow.
• I would lean UNC on the spread. If it crosses 10, I will be interested. My prediction: TCU 27-20

Play #2

USC / San Jose State o59.5 -110

I would play this to 62.5.

• Since taking over at USC, Lincoln Riley and USC are 6-0 to the over when favored by 30+ points. Riley’s teams are also 4-0 to the over in the season opener.
• QB Jaden Maiava tossed for 3,711 yards last season and ranked 2nd nationally in QBR.
• King Miller and Waymond Jordan will both return at RB. Miller emerged after injuries to average 6.2 YPC last season. Jordan is back after suffering a season-ending injury last season.
• USC lost most of their WR production, but they have talent waiting in Tanook Hines and NC State transfer, Terrell Anderson. San Jose State will have no answer defensively and I would not be surprised to see USC hang 60+ points themselves.
• San Jose State runs the spread and shred offense. A high tempo, space-heavy scheme that uses wide formations to stretch defenses sideline to sideline. They have a very heavy passing approach with quick reads designed to get wide receivers open in space. This will likely result in quick drives and turnovers against USC.
• TCU legend, Gary Patterson has taken over at DC for the Trojans and this will be a great opportunity for positive change in game one.
• USC should be able to score at will here. Lincoln Riley has shown that he will keep the foot on the gas against inferior opponents. If San Jose State wants to run their usual offense, USC may score 60-70 points. I would play this total up to 62.5 and also lean USC 1H -17.5 and full game -38.5 as I believe they dominate this game. My prediction: USC 59-10.

Play #3

NC State +5.5 -106

I would play this to +4.5. Anything less, just lay the ML.

• We have a week 0 ACC game scheduled as NC State heads to Charlottesville to open the season against a Virginia team looking to ride the momentum from last season.
• NC State will be led by QB CJ Bailey. Bailey elected to stay with NC State after an impressive 2025 season where he tossed for 25 TDs, only 9 INTs, and finished 13th nationally in QBR.
• The Wolf Pack lost their main weapons from last season. However, they replaced well. RB Duke Scott is set up for a breakout season behind an experienced offensive line after becoming only the 9th NCST freshman to break 500 rushing yards in the last 25 years. Keenan Jackson is the lone returner in the Wolf Pack’s WR room but is surrounded by talented transfers.
• Virginia’s defense was their strength last season and will return plenty of their production.
• Offensively, Virginia is also facing some turnover in the skill group. Missouri transfer, Beau Pribula will lead the offense. Pribula battled injury last year at Missouri but also struggled with turnovers and holding on to the ball too long. He can extend and make plays his legs. UVA will also have a new RB room in Jekail Middlebrook and Peyton Lewis.
• The offense will be one of the oldest groups in the country in terms of age as 9 of the 11 are graduates.
• NC State’s linebacker group will be their strength, which will need to step up against the UVA rushing attack.
• Virginia likely has the advantage in the trenches, but I am backing the Wolf Pack here. Virginia played in 9 close games last season and managed to win 6 of them. I give NC State the QB advantage with CJ Bailey. In NC State’s 35-31 win over Virginia last season, the Pack were out-gained by 100 yards, punted more times, and went 1/7 on 3rd down. I expect this game to be close down to the wire. I may even look at sprinkling the Moneyline. My prediction: NC State 27-24.

Play #4

Jacksonville State +7.5 -108

I would not play this under a TD. +7 is fine.

This line opened +10 but I was too slow to lock it in. I agree with the line movement as Jacksonville State should be able to keep this game within reach.

• NDSU is making the move to FBS after years of being the top of the line FCS program. The Fargo Dome will be popping as this fan base is excited to make the move.
• NDSU will be replacing a decent amount of production on both sides of the ball. 5th year Senior Nathan Hayes, will take over at QB. Hayes only has 63 drop-backs in his career, mostly in blowouts against inferior FCS opponents. Hayes can also be a threat with his legs as he has averaged 12.75 yards per rush in 14 career attempts.
• Jacksonville State will head to Fargo to open the second season under HC Charles Kelly. Jax State made the jump to FBS after the 2023 season and has adjusted well. The Gamecocks have won 9 games and appeared in a bowl game in every season since joining the CUSA.
• Since moving to FBS, Jax State has ranked 3rd, 3rd, and 5th in rushing yards per game. RB Cam Cook led the nation in yards last season, but he is now with Rich Rod at WVU. Jalen Likely will be RB1 this year with freshman Cedric Koemi as RB2.
• QB Caden Creel after rushing for over 1k yards last season. He will be looking to take a leap forward in the passing game. WR Dionte Johnson is a massive target on the outside that will be used heavily.
• NDSU is a great program and will transition into the Mountain West just fine. Maybe even competing for a conference title in year one. However, I do not believe they should be over a TD favorite against a program like Jacksonville State in their first FBS game in the national spotlight. My prediction: NDSU 24-20.

Play #5

Florida State -30.5 -110

I would play this to -34.5.

• FSU should dominate on both sides of the ball here. With SMU, Alabama, and Virginia on the schedule in the first 5 weeks, this is a free win that Norvell must capitalize on. The preseason hype is at an all time low for the Seminoles. A blowout first game will help the fan base buy in for a big week 1 home matchup against SMU.
• Last season we saw FSU run the score up on inferior opponents as they hung 77 on East Texas A&M and 66 on Kent State.
• Auburn transfer Ashton Daniels will get the starting nod. He really played well in his final couple of games at Auburn.
• Daniels will have one of the best WRs in the country in Duce Robinson to spam targets.
• FSU’s rushing attack should be much improved this season. Preseason reports are saying that Ousman Kromah is legit with tons of speed. Quintrevion Wisner transferred in from Texas but is still working his way back from injury.
• Trey Hedden was named the QB1 for the Aggies. Hedden is a Furman transfer that really struggled with turnovers at the FCS level. Now he will have to face FSU’s really good pass rush. Hedden cannot extend plays with his legs, so this will be a tough spot for him.
• New Mexico State also has zero rushing attack, ranking 134th of 136 in rushing yards per game in 2025.
• FSU rolls here against a projected bottom 10 FBS opponent. I am not concerned about the foot coming off the gas with SMU next week. The backups will continue to score. We have seen Norvell run it up before. My prediction: 52-10 Noles.

Play #6

Stanford -4 -105

There are some -3.5s available. I am not convinced on this late move and would play Stanford up to -6.

• Stanford and Hawaii will square off as the venue flips from the Island to Stanford Stadium. I backed Stanford in this same spot last year and Hawaii escaped a 23-20 thriller.
• 2025 ended up being Hawaii’s best season under Tommy Chang as they managed to finish the season 9-4 with a bowl win over California.
• Hawaii returns one of the best QBs at the G6 level in Micah Alejado.
• WR1 Pofele Ashlock has yet to participate in fall camp and is unlikely to suit up for this game.
• Hawaii is also replacing a ton of production on defense.
• Stanford is RB Micah Ford should have a big day on the ground and lead the offense. He rushed for 113 vs Hawaii last year. Hawaii ranked 106th EPA/Rush last season.
• Davis Warren will take over at QB after 4 seasons at Michigan. Warren is coming off an ACL injury and I have no idea what to expect.
• WR Nico Brown transfers in after a successful 2025 season at Yale. Stanford’s TE’s are massive targets and should help take the pressure off of Warren.
• Stanford should dominate this game in the trenches. Hawaii has the QB advantage in this game, but I give the edge to Stanford’s size and rushing attack. Hawaii is 6-17 on the main land under Tommy Chang. Give me Stanford 27-17.

Play #7

Memphis / UNLV o55.5 -109 CZR

• Charles Huff takes over at Memphis after winning the Sun Belt conference championship with Marshall in 2024 and leading Southern Miss to a bowl appearance in 2025.

• Memphis has a complete overhaul of the roster with 70 new players. Both the offense and defense will be new faces.

• Kevin Decker joins Huff’s staff as OC after spending the prior three seasons at Old Dominion. This offense will be fast and explosive. ODU ranked 26th nationally in seconds per play last season and 13th in rushing yards per game.
• There has not been an official announcement, but Marcus Stokes projects to be the starting QB. Stokes was a four star prospect that had a standout career at D2 West Florida.
• UNLV has high hopes in Dan Mullen’s 2nd season at UNLV.
• Jackson Arnold and Alex Orji will both see time at QB. Arnold is a former 5 star recruit that had a falling out at Oklahoma and Auburn. Will he put it together with a step down in competition? Either QB can make plays with their legs, which makes a good fit in this UNLV offense.
• Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas returns behi