Last week was fun. Let’s repeat.

Thursday – Sept 17th

Syracuse +10.5 -110

• Despite losing, Syracuse outgained Cal by nearly 200 yards. Angeli tossed for 3 interceptions. Syracuse also had 15 penalties for 132 yards in that game. They will need to clean up the mistakes to compete with Pitt.
• Pitt’s defense has been elite against the run, stuffing UCF to only 20 yards and Miami (OH) to 28.
• Pitt’s offense looked great against Miami (OH), but struggled against UCF. The weather may have played a factor in the passing game, but they only rushed for 2.7 YPC. Cuse’s defense held California to 2.9 YPC and contained JKS to under 200 yards passing.
• Pitt likely wins this game, but this is too many points for me. Angeli is not a threat with his legs, so I struggle to see Syracuse having much success on the ground against this front. However, I do believe Angeli can find success through the air. Pitt 31-24.

Friday – Sept 18th

Texas Tech / Houston u53.5 -108

• Texas Tech entered the season as massive favorites to win the B12, however they have not looked great through two games against Abilene Christian and Oregon State. Now they will host Houston in a top 25 matchup. We already have a common opponent already in Oregon State. Houston beat the Beavs 33-20 while Tech won 35-24.
• The Red Raiders rank 103rd in yards per carry and 125th in explosive run rate. QB Will Hammond averaged 7 yards per rushing attempt last season. However, he has only rushed 4 times this season. Hammond is still recovering from a torn ACL and has not looked 100%. I expect to see more packages for Tommy Castellanos as the season progresses.
• Houston had offensive line troubles last season, but they have improved through two games. They averaged 5.8 YPC against Oregon State compared to Tech’s 3.4 YPC.
• Houston QB Connor Weigman is a threat with his arms and legs. However, he has struggled historically when faced with pressure. Tech’s defense struggled against Oregon State’s passing attack but they should get a few players back this weekend. Safety Brendan Jordan will return from suspension and Trey White on the edge is trending in the right direction.
• Tech has not allowed over 18 points at home in nine straight games. Houston’s offensive line has shown improvements, but this is a big test against Tech’s defensive line. The Red Raider offense has not been explosive and Houston has been very good at limiting explosive plays. Both defenses can keep their team in this game. Houston is a popular upset pick this week, but I have Texas Tech winning at home in a slugfest. 23-17.

Saturday – September 19th

Arizona State -5.5 -105

• Laying favorites in these overseas matchups has not been a profitable strategy, but I like the Sun Devils in this matchup.
• Arizona State went on the road and played right with Texas A&M last week. The final was 48-20 and A&M covered but that was due to two late pick sixes. Arizona State held their ground in the trenches, averaging 4.2 YPC to A&M’s 2.9 YPC. WR Reed Harris torched the Aggies for 189 yards and 2 TDs. Boley and Reed will be able to take advantage of a Kansas secondary that surrendered 292 yards and 10.1 yards/attempt to Austin Simmons and Missouri in a home environment. Kansas could not generate pressure in that game and ended with zero sacks.
• On the other side, Kansas offense was held in check by Mizzou last week. QB Isaiah Marshall threw two picks and did not make many plays with his legs. Kansas only rushed for 2.3 YPC. They blocked 2 FGs and returned one for a TD, which made the game appear closer than it actually was.
• The travel is a concern here but I believe it affects Kansas more than Arizona State. The Jayhawks lost a big rivalry game last week at home and now have to travel to London. If ASU can cut down on the turnovers, they should be able to win this game. This spread would have been closer to -7 if you erased ASU’s two late pick sixes and Kansas returning a blocked FG for a TD. 34-24 ASU.

Kansas State -19.5 -112

• It seems Tulane has finally made a QB decision after rolling with Kadin Semonza the entire game against South Alabama. He went 14/22 for 212 yards and a TD. This will be a tough test against a Kansas St defense that has yet to allow a touchdown.
• Kansas State rushed for 7.4 YPC against Washington State and should be able to do the same here. Duke’s Nate Sheppard rushed for 227 yards in week one against this questionable Tulane defense.

• With Tulane still figuring things out offensively and struggling against the run, I like KSU to roll in this game. Wildcats 38-14.

Clemson -3 -114

• Tait Reynolds will take over for QB for Clemson. Reynolds offers a rushing threat that Vizzina does not offer. With Tait receiving the full week of starter reps, I am hoping Clemson can make an improvement offensively this weekend.
• UNC star defensive end Melkart Abou Jaoude is questionable. He led UNC in sacks last season.
• UNC’s defense has been solid against TCU overseas and ETSU. I am still not sold on the is offense. Clemson should be able to stuff the run, which leaves them relying on Billy Edwards to throw the ball. WR CJ Sadler will miss this game.
• Clemson has the talent. I believe the market has overreacted and they make a few adjustments. Clemson 20-13.

Georgia -24.5 -110

• Arkansas is broken. They had major issues in week one against North Alabama and did not clean it up last week at Utah. They generated zero pressure against Dampier and Utah rushed for nearly 5 yards a carry. QB KJ Jackson has been awful and was benched during the Utah blowout.
• Georgia has played weak competition in TN State and WKU, but they have absolutely dominated. Gunner Stockton has been flawless and UGA has averaged 8.85 YPC.
• This game will be at home, but I do not see Arkansas adjusting in time for an opponent like Georgia. The Razorbacks stayed in Utah until Sunday morning, which cost them a day of preparation. Arkansas averaged 2.2 YPC against Utah and the offensive line will be even more outmatched in this game. Georgia 45-10.

USC -23.5 -108

• This line has moved toward Rutgers and there are a few -22.5s available. This is due to USC ruling out WR Trent Mosley. He has been one of the best freshmen WRs in the country, but USC will be fine. This is likely their deepest position group.

• Rutgers switched to AJ Surace at QB last week against Boston College. It did not change much as he tossed 4 interceptions in the loss. Dylan Lonergan is probable this week, but he tossed 3 picks against UMass in week 1.

• Rutgers is the worst P4 team in the country. Their game plan offensively is to feed KJ Duff and USC will game-plan to take that away. RB Antwan Raymond rushed for 134 yards against BC, but popped up as questionable on the injury report.
• USC is traveling across the country and will be in a “look-ahead spot” as they host Oregon next weekend, which is the reason we are getting this line under 28. Rutgers has been that bad. USC 49-20.

Utah -27.5 -114

• Utah State almost pulled off a massive upset over Washington last week, but came up short. Washington’s offense has not clicked at all this season. In week one, Utah State lost outright to Idaho State. Utah’s offense will be too much for Utah State to handle. They ran the score up against Idaho and I believe they will do the same here. Utes 45-10.

Kentucky / Texas A&M u50.5 -110

• A&M has not clicked entirely on offense yet. It took them a while to get going against Missouri State then only posted 255 yards against Arizona State.
• Against Arizona State, the Aggies only allowed 2.9 YPC.
• Their defensive line has played well and has potential to keep them in this game. If they can’t make Reed uncomfortable in play action, it could end up be a long game for the Wildcats.
• Kenny Minchey was out of place against Alabama. Minchey has zero big time throws and only had 4.7 yards per attempt. Now he will hit the road to take on one of the best pass defense’s in the country. The screens and short attempts will not fly against this TAMU defense. TAMU 31-10.

Louisville ML -115

• I am excited to watch this game between two of the ACC’s top teams. Jeff Brohm has worked his magic in Lincoln Kienholz. All four TD pass from Lincoln Kienholz this season have been 50+ yards. Louisville had four 50+ yard TD passes over the last 2 seasons combined.
• Kevin Jennings headlines a SMU offense that leads the country in passing yards. Louisville ranks 121st in passing yards allowed, but they had to face Trinidad Chambliss in a week one shootout. Jennings ranked 3rd nationally in interceptions last season and tossed two at FSU in week one.
• Louisville’s pass rush is supposed to be one of the one of their strengths, but they have only forced 1 sack in two games.
• Louisville’s RB combo of Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown are both probable. SMU surrendered 200 rushing yards to FSU in week one.
• Both offenses will likely find success in this game. I trust Jeff Brohm in a big game at home. Jennings has shown he will turn it over. Louisville 31-28.

Baylor -18.5 -105

• Louisiana Tech QB Blake Baker has suffered a fractured hand and his status for Saturday is TBD. It is sounding like he will not play.
• Baylor rested a few starters against Prairie View A&M, but they should return to the field for this matchup. That includes QB DJ Lagway, who looked solid in his week one showing against Auburn.
• Baylor’s defense has one of the best HAVOC rates in the country. If Baker sits, they should feast.
• La Tech’s defense forced 4 turnovers against LSU, including a pick 6 from their own endzone. Lagway has been prone to turnovers throughout his career. I’m not concerned as LSU still managed 530 yards of offense. Baylor 45-10.
• UPDATE: Lagway is doubtful and unlikely to play. I bet this expecting him to play. I still like Baylor, but would wait and see how far this number drops.
• UPDATE: Blake Baker is out. Backup vs backup

UConn -3 -114

• UConn could not keep up with Maryland in the trenches last week, but Maryland is a solid team.

• The Southern Miss defense was torched by Auburn, allowing over 600 yards of total offense. They have allowed 223.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 132nd in the country. Kalieb Osbourne can make plays with his arms and legs.
• The USM passing attacked is not very good. Ethan Hampton does not like throwing it downfield. He only tossed for 180 yards against Alcorn State and 146 against Auburn. UConn’s secondary struggled against Malik Washington, but I don’t believe USM has the weapons to take advantage. UConn wins on the road. 31-24.

Ole Miss / LSU o56.5 -115

• This matchup has no shortage of storylines. Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford to take on Ole Miss. Golding, Trinidad, and Lacy face off against their former HC. In this matchup, every home team has won this matchup since LSU’s 2019 win in Oxford.
• As of Thursday afternoon, it seems Sam Leavitt will play. He sat out practice on Wednesday, which triggered a doubtful tag but returned Thursday. Leavitt tossed 3 picks against La Tech last weekend, but can make plays with his legs. This passing attacked sits 4th in the country in passing yards per game (358) and 3rd in explosive passing plays (20).
• Ole Miss is allowing 8.4 yards per pass, which is 120th in the country. They have allowed 11 explosive pass plays which ranks 102nd in the country.
• Ole Miss has had tackling issues all season. LSU should be able to run the ball here. Louisville broke multiple big runs back in week one. As a team, they missed 25 tackles against Louisville.
• LSU is better than Ole Miss in multiple position groups, but I trust Trindad more in this matchup than I do Leavitt. Blake Baker is a great DC and will throw all sorts of blitz packages at Ole Miss, but Chambliss has shown to pull miracles. Trinidad is very good when under pressure and LSU has the highest pressure rate in the country.
• Deuce Alexander torched Louisville deep in week one. Can he repeat against LSU’s back end defense? LSU also has the best coverage grade in the country according to PFF.
• Give me the over. The models say play the under, but these offenses are two of the most explosive in the country. I believe we are in for a good one and that this game will come down to the wire. Ole Miss wins 34-31 on a last second FG.

Maryland / Virginia Tech u54.5 -110

• I love this play and expect this game to be a slugfest. These two defensive fronts were two of the highest graded units in week 2.

• Malik Washington doesn’t throw the ball downfield often, which should help against a VT defense that already has 12 sacks on the season.
• The Va Tech offense has looked great, but has yet to be tested. VT surrendered 4 sacks and only rushed for 2.1 YPC against ODU. They will need to be better against this Maryland defense.
• I expect both defenses to hold the opposing offenses in check. I may bump this to a 1.5u before kickoff. Maryland 24-20.

Arkansas State / TCU u55.5 -105

• You can get this at 56.5 now. TCU’s defense has been solid, especially against the run. The Frogs have only allowed 55 rushing yards per game, which ranks 7th. Ark St’s offense will want to establish the run. In the game they were trailing Memphis and had to pass, Trey Owens tossed 4 interceptions. They only passed for 135 yards in their blowout win over a bad West Georgia team.
• Memphis rushed for over 300 yards against Arkansas State and TCU will likely be able to do the same. TCU’s WR1 Jordan Dwyer is still doubtful and will likely miss this game. Their passing attack is limited without him. TCU 38-14.

Louisiana -7.5 -105

• ULL QB Lunch Winfield can play. Against USC, he rushed for 91 yards and 2 TDs. He is averaging 8 yards per rushing attempt this season. He is also completing over 72% of his passes. Winfield tossed two picks against Lamar but did not turn it over against USC.
• UAB trailed a bad UL-Monroe team in the 4th quarter last week and allowed 4.7 YPC. ULM QB Austin Carlisle rushed 17 times for 93 yards.
• UAB did out-gain Illinois 413 to 332 in week one, but a lot of that was in garbage time. UAB also ranks 108th in penalties per game. I don’t see them having much of an answer to stopping Lunch Winfield. Louisiana 34-20.

North Dakota State -26.5 -105

• NDSU should dominate this game. The Bison have a bye next week so should be able to run it up.
• Sac State’s defense is undersized. Fresno scored 8 consecutive drives on Saturday. Sac State is still without QB, Carson Conklin. NDSU 48-10.

San Diego State ML -120

• JMU has questions at QB. JC Evans did not play last week and is listed as questionable here.
• JMU has beaten Liberty and Wagner. Liberty struggled with Gardner Webb last week. The Dukes only passed for 118 yards in that game. They scored 87 against Wagner, but blocked 3 punts for TDs. Given the QB concerns and lack of passing, I am hesitant to back them traveling across the country.
• SDSU was in the game last weekend, holding UCLA to only 7 points until the 4th quarter. The Aztecs have a limited passing attack, but feature one of the best backs in the PAC 12 in Lucky Sutton.
• I’m just not sold on JMU. This is a tough travel and San Diego State’s defense looked solid against UCLA. Aztecs 24-20.

South Dakota / Boise o54.5 -110

• South Dakota has one of the best offenses in the FCS, averaging over 500 yards a game so far this season.
• Boise will be able to score 40+ and I am expecting South Dakota to put a few on the board during garbage time. Boise 45-20.

Purdue +14.5 -105

• As I mentioned above in the San Diego State write up, UCLA’s offense looked bad last week. Nico has yet to throw a TD pass this season.
• Purdue lost a heartbreaker last weekend to Wake Forest in 2OT. QB Ryan Browne has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the first two games.
• I worry about the travel, but I expect Purdue to play well after a tough loss. Nico has struggled and I do not believe UCLA should be over 14 point favorites here. UCLA 27-21.

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