Betting Results:

3-4 (-1.37u)

Started 2-0 on the day before dropping 4 of the last 5. NC State was a no-show and bad read. FSU struggled. Stanford comes through late to hit the 1.5u. UNLV / Memphis started slow and came up short on the total. Jax State lost all momentum right before half and never recovered.

Full slate coming up this week. I will have my card posted tonight or early tomorrow.

Takeaways

TCU vs UNC

• UNC becomes the 3rd consecutive underdog to win outright in Ireland.
• UNC’s offense is better than last year with the additions of Bobby Petrino and Billy Edwards.
• The UNC defense looked solid, holding TCU to only 175 yards passing.
• TCU went 1-5 on 4th down and committed 11 penalties compared to UNC’s 3.
• Jaden Craig was bad, producing 0 big-time throws and 2 turnover worthy plays. Getting Jordan Dwyer back will provide a boost, but I’m not sure if it’s enough.
• RB Jeremy Payne was the bright spot as he finished with 142 yards on 12 carries.
• I’m trying not to overreact here, but TCU needs drastic improvement if they wish to compete in conference play. UNC should be contending for bowl eligibility.

San Jose State vs USC

• Jayden Maiva looked good, finishing 25/29 for 286 yards and 2 TD.
• USC only generated 1 sack.
• San Jose State found success in garbage time. QB Luke Weaver looked solid in his Spartan debut. I like them this week against Eastern Michigan.

NC State vs Virginia

• Virginia dominated and will be a threat in the ACC. Pribula rushed for 110 and took care of the football.
• NC State was not prepared. Doreen did not have them ready. CJ Bailey was lost and does not have many weapons to work with. Wolf Pack only generated -0.34 EPA/Play, a 35% success rate, and 3.29 yards/play.

Jacksonville State vs North Dakota State

• Jax State lost all momentum right before the half. They turned the ball over in the redzone then allowed a deep TD with 0:18 left in the half.
• NDSU dominated at the line of scrimmage. Jax State’s offense had one of the worst showings of the weekend.

New Mexico State vs Florida State

• Everyone will dog FSU for only winning by 17, but I would not overreact just yet. The Seminoles generated 0.25 ERA/Play with a few explosives.
• FSU allowed NMSU to convert 10 out of 17 attempts on 3rd down. They struggled generating pressure.

Hawaii vs Stanford

• Stanford won in the trenches as they rushed for 174 yards compared to Hawaii’s 46. They also did a good job of taking care of the football.
• Hawaii made a late push and almost came back in the 4th before Stanford scored late for a deserved cover.

Memphis vs UNLV

• Memphis defensive line is one of the best in the G6. They finished with 11 TFLs and 17 QB pressures. Tigers held Jet Thomas in check.
• Memphis offense looked solid. They loved taking their chances downfield. Stokes delivered.
• Jackson Arnold played well. I expect UNLV to be fine against weaker defensive fronts. The market is overreacting by moving NDSU as favorites to win the Mountain West.