After an appetizer in week 0, we are officially back with a full slate of CFB in week 1.

Every year for the last 5 seasons, a top 10 team in the AP poll has lost in week 1.

Let’s have a weekend.

Thursday – 9/3/2026

As of this moment, I have no action for tonight’s slate. I may end up adding a play if the lines move before kickoff. I liked Colorado +7, but missed the number.

Friday – 9/4/2026

Michigan State -9.5 -110

• Toledo is a popular upset pick, but I just don’t see it as the Pat Fitzgerald era at Michigan State. Toledo has had previous success as an underdog against P4 opponents, but this is an entire new roster with a new coach.
• Michigan State returns some experience at QB in Alessio Milivojevic. In 4 games he started last season, he averaged 246 yards per game.
• Cam Edwards transfers in from UConn and will be the focal point of this offense. Michigan State’s offensive line ranked 17th in the B10 last season, but I expect this group to be improved. They will have a size advantage over Toledo’s front.
• Toledo brought in the #1 ranked portal class in the MAC, but I believe this will take some time to establish. This team is full of Mercer transfers, who were stomped last year when stepping up in competition.
• John Alan Richter will get the start. He only played in 3 games in 2025 before suffering a season-ending injury.
• Toledo’s old DC, Vince Kehres has left to Syracuse and will leave a big gap needed to be filled.
• I give Michigan state the advantage in the trenches on both sides do the ball. Toledo should be fine, but I expect it to take time. Sparty 27-13

San Jose State +4.5 -105

• After last week’s week zero performances, this became one of the first bets I hit for this week.
• SJST QB Luke Weaver looked solid against USC, especially in the 4th quarter against USC backups.
• Carson Conklin from Sac State produced a few explosives against EMU’s defense last week. San Jose State’s offense will have a chance to take a few shots.
• I project San Jose State as the favorite here. 31-27 Spartans.

Saturday – 9/5/2026

UConn -19.5 -110

• With Jim Mora at Colorado State, this will be a new team under former Toledo coach, Jason Candle.
• Under Candle, Toledo decimated their FCS opponents out-scoring them opponents 469-42. Every game was a blowout.
• UConn has yet to name as starting QB but it is likely between former TN transfer Jake Merklinger and Toledo’s Kalieb Osbourne.
• Lafayette was trailing Georgetown 13-7 last week before the game was postponed after halftime due to “lightning strikes in the area”. Georgetown projects to finish last place in the Patriot League according to Sagarin. Lafayette struggled to move the ball.

Liberty / James Madison o50.5 -110

• I believe this is one of the best games scheduled on the slate as the Billy Napier era begins at JMU.
• JMU ranks 136th in returning production and will be reloading with new faces. Liberty should have success running the ball against this JMU front seven.
• I believe JMU reloaded better offensively than they did defensively. QB JC Evans offers playmaking ability with his legs. He was the Boca Raton Bowl MVP in 2024 and Liberty’s secondary will be vulnerable to big plays. RB George Pettaway will likely be the focal point of this offense behind a good offensive line.

• This total dropped earlier in the week when the unders were being hammered, but I like the over. I don’t think a 49.5 becomes available, but you could wait and see. Both teams should have success running the football and cash in on red-zone opportunities. JMU 31-24.

Alabama -27.5 -118

• At first glance, this number would make you lean ECU. However after diving into the matchup, I believe Alabama blows them out. ECU is replacing nearly every starter on both sides of the ball. They also lost both offensive and defensive coordinators.
• ECU will start Wake Forest/Texas tech transfer Mitch Griffis at QB. Griffis has 3 Big time throws and 20 turnover worthy plays in his career which could end in a disaster versus an elite Alabama secondary.
• ECU’s offensive line is inexperienced and will be outmatched against Alabama’s defensive front.
• ECU’s defensive front was one of the best at the G6 level last season. They should be solid once again. However, I fully expect Alabama’s offensive line to improve from last year. Alabama could not establish the run last season, ranking 125th in rushing offense. Bama will rotate 3 talented RBs in Daniel Hill, Kevin Riley, and 5 star freshman EJ Crowell.
• If Russell has time, Alabama’s loaded WR room will have a huge advantage against this ECU secondary.
• I believe Alabama establishes a rushing attack here. Ryan Grubb is a good offensive coordinator and I expect them to make the necessary adjustments from last season. I am high on this Alabama team. ECU will compete in the American, but it may take a few weeks to settle in. Tide 45-10.

1.5u: West Virginia -20.5 -115

• I missed the -17.5 earlier in the summer, but I was able to snag a -20.5 when the line dipped the other day. -21s are available but would not hate if you laid any number as WVU should dominate this game.
• I am not a big win total guy, but WVU o5.5 was one of my favorite preseason win totals. They reloaded well in the portal.
• RB Cam Cook is a perfect fit for Rich Rod. He transfers in after leading the country in rushing yards last season. QB Michael Hawkins transfers in from Oklahoma. He has some SEC experience and can make plays with his legs.
• Coastal allowed 219.1 rushing yards per game last season, which ranked 131st in the country. This is a nightmare matchup for them against Rich Rod’s up-tempo rushing attack.
• This sets up well for a blowout. Get -21 if you can, but I would lay any number as this is one of my favorite plays this weekend. 45-13 WVU.

Miami (OH) / Pittsburgh u48.5 -110

• Miami’s goal in this game will be to control the tempo by running the football. QB David McComb is a redshirt freshman Kansas transfer making his first start under center.
• Their offensive line is experienced, but struggled pass-blocking. Pitt’s defensive line should feast.
• Miami’s defense always profiles well and likely will once again this season. Pitt will run a fast tempo with Mason Heintschel returning at QB and Jakrion Turner in the backfield.
• As long as Miami takes care of the football, this game should stay relatively low scoring. With a true freshman on the road and zero passing attack, I’ll be surprised if Miami can get to 17 points. 38-6 Pitt.

Kent State / South Carolina o53.5 -110

• I missed the 51.5’s but I like this play up to 55.
• LaNorris Sellers is back at QB for the Gamecocks with a talented roster to work with. SC had major offensive line problems last season, but they have completely rebuilt this unit using the portal.
• Kendal Briles takes over at OC and should bring in a more up-tempo offense.
• Kent State was destroyed in their non-conference games last season, losing to OU 44-0, FSU 66-10, and Texas Tech 62-14.
• Dru Deshields will start at QB. He was named to Phil Steele’s Preseason All-MAC Second team. He ranked 31st nationally in QBR last season and loves to take shots downfield.
• SC should have little to no problem here. With a new OC and revamped rushing attack, I expect them to hang a pretty large number. Kent’s offense should be good for a few scores late. SC 49-10.

Georgia -44.5 -110

• This was also one of my first bets hit this week.
• If I see “Georgia is 0-15-1 ATS under Kirby Smart when favored by at least 38 points” one more time on my timeline, I may kill myself.
• This Tennessee State team is so much worse than the other teams Georgia has played as a heavy favorite.
• Tennessee State went 2-10 last year, averaging only 12.9 points per game. Sagarin has them projected to finish second to last in the OVC.
• Georgia doesn’t have to try to run up the score here. It’s just naturally going to happen. I fully expect them to leave with points in every possession. I would easily play this to -49. UGA wins big 63-0.

Oregon -24 -115

• Boise is the current G6 team to make the playoffs according to the sportsbooks. They played Oregon in a close game back in 2024, but they also had Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. This year they will be returning a high-producing RB room led by Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines.
• Boise QB Maddux Madsen returns with experience after suffering a season ending injury last year.
• This may be Lanning’s most talented team on paper in his coaching career. Dante Moore returns at QB and will be surrounded by talent. Dakorien Moore, healthy Evan Stewart, and Jeremiah McClellan make up one of the best WR rooms in the country. RBs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill will be in line for success behind an elite offensive line. On defense, Oregon is elite everywhere, but their secondary really stands out.
• I just don’t see how Boise competes here unless they are able to run the football. The Broncos are also still waiting to name a few starters on the offensive line. I do not see a window where Mandan returns from injury and has success against the Oregon secondary. Oregon is dominant at Autzen. Lanning will have the prepared. Oregon 45-17.

Tennessee -46.5 -110

• I really like this play. Josh Heupel teams are 5-0 ATS in the season opener. He has also ran up the score on FCS opponents, averaging 58.4 PPG over 5 contests.
• Jim Knowles (DC) on what he wants to do vs Furman “I don’t want to give up any yards, I want a shutout, I don’t want to give up any first downs. I want to teach how we prepare for an opponent.”
• Furman only scored 20 points against D2 Anderson last week. Anderson was 5-6 last season at the D2 level. QB Jake Garcia only went 15/28 for 183 yards and zero TDs.

• Freshman Fazion Brandon will get the start. George MacIntyre will also see the field. I have a feeling they will continue giving GMac reps with a large lead.
• My concern only is that TN doesn’t show much with GT on the schedule in week 2. However, like I said in the Georgia write up, it shouldn’t matter. TN’s fast tempo will be there throughout the game and I believe they let GMac sling it around in the 2nd half. I will likely be playing TN 1Q -13.5 as well. Vols 66-10.

Marshall +24.5 -110

• 2026 Sunbelt preseason offensive player of the year Carlos Del Rio Wilson returns at QB for the Thundering Hurd. In 2025, He posted over 2600 yards and 23 TDs in only 9 games as the starter.
• Marshall’s offensive line should be able to keep up. Jalen Slappy and Tariq Montgomery were both named to the preseason Sun Belt 1st team.
• TE Toby Payne and WR Adrian Norton were also named to the preseason Sun Belt 1st team.
• Marshall received bad news on the defensive side of the ball as star CB Boogie Trotter was named ineligible. However, Marshall still has talent on that side of the ball with FS Daytione Smith, LB Javae Gilmore, and DL Braydon Ward.
• Matt Campbell is 7-14 ATS as a double digit favorite in his career. He also did not operate a fast tempo offense with Becht at QB.
• I’m not sure if Marshall can pull off the upset, but I don’t think it’s the worst idea to sprinkle. I believe they have the talent to keep this game within 24 points. Penn State 31-17.

Auburn -7 -105

• Auburn has had 3 consecutive losing seasons for the first time in 75 years. Alex Golesh takes over and brings in a lot of talent from USF with him.
• Golesh’s offense perform better when the running game is successful. Byrum Brown is one best rushing QBs in the country. Baylor ranked 108th against the RPO last season and Golesh loves to run RPO with Brown.
• Baylor struggled to stop the run last season. Auburn torched them for 51 carries and 320 yards on the ground in last year’s 38-24 win. Jackson Arnold had 150 rushing yards and Baylor missed 20 tackles. If Baylor doesn’t make an adjustment, Auburn will hang a large number.
• DJ Lagway starts a new chapter at Baylor. He had a great freshman 2024 season but took a step back in 2025 as he the P4 in interceptions.
• Auburn’s secondary ranked 99th in explosive pass play rate allowed last season. DJ Durkin loves to send pressure. Until Lagway proves he can make decisions and throw accurately, I’m not sold
• Auburn’s new look offense is set up for success in the first game under Alex Golesh. Lagway may hit on a few deep balls, but I believe Baylor has a tough time containing Brown. 38-27 Auburn.

Oklahoma State -13.5 -110

• Tulsa has some preseason hype around the industry but I just don’t believe this is a good matchup for them. This game is hard to model since OK State has a completely new roster from last year.
• The Eric Morris era begins in Stillwater and the fan base has bought back in. QB Drew Mestemaker transfers in after a breakout season at North Texas where he led the FBS in passing yards.
• Tulsa won this matchup last season, so the fan base has had this matchup circled for months.
• The pace of play should be fast. In 2025, Tulsa ranked 10th in seconds per play while North Texas ranked 1st. However, Tulsa hired a new OC in Kevin Barbay. Barbay looks to rebuild his resume after struggling as OC at Houston and Mississippi State.
• Morris had about 4-5 good defenders on North Texas and managed to bring them all over to OK State.
• I like OK State here. I’m not sold on Barbay calling the plays for Tulsa. Mestemaker lit up the American last year and will have the chance to do it one more time in week 1. Give me 38-20 OK State.

Jacksonville State -20.5 -110

• Buy low spot here for Jax State after falling apart last week in the Fargo Dome. This is a good opportunity to get back on track with a blow out win against an Eastern Kentucky team that was blown out by Western Carolina last week. 45-17 Jax State.

Clemson / LSU u51.5 -113

• LSU is loaded defensively. Blake Baker loves to dial up pressure and make QBs as uncomfortable as possible. He had Cade Klubnik in a blender last season with a less talented unit.
• Chris Vizzina was named the starting QB for Clemson and Chad Morris is in at offensive coordinator. With a new OC and QB going on the road to one of the toughest atmospheres in the country, Dabo’s game plan will try to make this game as ugly as possible.
• Rain is also in the forecast for this game.
• Sam Leavitt does a great job of taking care of the football. Kiffin is a great play caller. They probably hit on a few explosives in this game. However, I believe Clemson struggles to crack 20 points here. 27-17 LSU.

Mississippi State -27.5 -125

• The Kamario Taylor era is officially here and I am buying the hype.
• Mississippi State has a clear talent advantage at every aspect of the game. UL Monroe’s offense grades as one of the worst units in the country.
• Given Mississippi State’s schedule, how many opportunities will they have to run the score up on opponents this season? Run it up. Get the fans to buy in. State 45-3.

UNLV -3 -108

• I hate fading Hawaii on the island, but I could not pass up this opportunity.
• Hawaii struggled to stop Stanford’s offense last week. They rushed for 173 yards and Davis Warren passed for 310.
• UNLV lost to Memphis, but still produced 460 yards of offense. The Memphis defensive front is one of the best at the G6 level. Hawaii’s defensive front will not come close to mimicking them.
• Memphis threw the ball downfield a lot against UNLV. I believe their aDOT was over 14 yards. Micah Alejado will hope to replicate that as he dropped back 50 times against Stanford. The Hawaii offense finally found success when they allowed him to throw in desperation.
• I like Dan Mullen to have his team regrouped and refocused for this tough travel spot. UNLV should have a clear talent advantage here. This game could have some ugly weather, which bolds better for UNLV. Rebels 34-27.

Nevada +108

• I agree with people around the industry in fading WKU this year. They ranked 131st in returning production and I don’t think they did a great job of reloading.
• Bodie Reeder was named the new OC. Reeder was previously at MTSU in 2024 and 2025 where they had one of the worst offenses in the country.
• This should be Jeff Choate’s best team at Nevada. Carter Jones earns the starting QB nod after showing some success late in the season last year. Nevada’s offensive line should have a clear advantage in this matchup. Nevada 27-20.

ADDS:

Syracuse -33 -115

MTSU -20.5 -110

South Dakota State / Northwestern o46.5 -110

UCLA / Cal o53.5 -110